高校野球 (Kokoyakyu)

So the teams invited are:

• Hokkaido (1) - Sapporo Dai-ichi
• Tohoku (2) - Aomori Yamada (Aomori), Hachinohe Gakuin Kousei (Aomori)
• Kanto (4) - Kisaradzu Sougou (Chiba), Jyousou Gakuin (Ibaraki), Toukaidai Koufu (Yamanashi), Kiryuu Dai-ichi (Gunma), Hanasaki Tokuharu (Saitama)
• Tokyo (1) - Kanto Dai-ichi
• Hokushinetsu (2) - Tsuruga Kehi (Fukui), Fukui Koudai Fukui (Fukui)
• Tokai (2) - Touhou (Aichi), Inabe Sougou Gakuen (Mie)
• Kinki (6) - Osaka Touin (Osaka), Shiga Gakuen (Shiga), Akashi Shougyou (Hyogo), Ryuukokudai Heian (Kyoto), Houtoku Gakuen (Hyogo), Chiben Gakuen (Nara), Shiritsu Wakayama (Wakayama)
• Chuugoku (3) - Soushi Gakuen (Okayama), Nanyou Kougyou (Yamaguchi), Kaisei (Shimane)
• Shikoku (3) - Takamatsu Shougyou (Kagawa), Meitoku Gijyuku (Kochi), Saibi (Ehime), Tosa (Kochi)
• Kyushu (4) - Shuugakukan (Kumamoto), Kaisei (Nagasaki), Kagoshima Jitsugyou (Kagoshima), Nichinan Gakuen (Miyazaki)
• 21st Century Teams
• Eastern - Kamaishi (Iwate)
• Western - Nagata (Hyogo)
• Wild Card - Yaeyama (Okinawa), Shoudoshima (Kagawa)

So here are the 9 super-regional nominees:

Eastern

• Hokkaido - Sapporo Kiyota
• Tohoku - Kamaishi (Iwate)
• Kanto/Tokyo - Ageo (Saitama)
• Hokushinetsu - Nagano (Nagano)
• Tokai - Uji-Yamada (Mie)

• Kinki - Nagata (Hyogo)
• Chuugoku - Izumo (Shimane)
• Shikoku - Shoudoshima (Kagawa)
• Kyushu - Yaeyama (Okinawa)

I forgot to cover the Tokyo/Kanto flex bid which seemingly will go to Hanasaki Tokuharu instead of Nishogakushadai Fuzoku because I just can't see the JHBF choosing a team to go for the 2nd straight year on a floating bid - even though their resume is much stronger:

Hanasaki Tokuharu

• Quality wins - Kasukabe Kyouei
• Quality losses(?) - Urawa Gakuin, Kisaradzu Sougou
• Questionable games - Waseda Honjyou (won 5-3), Kitoku (won 4-2)

But I'll cover both just in case. Hopefully the JHBF proves me wrong and chooses the better team (in my opinion).

Hanasaki Tokuharu's ace Takahashi Kouya (高橋 昂也) pitched at Koushien last summer with a good level of success giving up just 1 run in 8 innings of work, striking out 8 and walking just 2. He appears to be able to hold his own against better competition, but it would help if he had good defense behind him. He throws in the low 140s with a slider/curve/fork combo.

The counterpart, Nishogakushadai Fuzoku's Ooe Ryuusei (大江 竜聖) has put up strong numbers at Koushien and has a repertoire similar to Takahashi. He also seems to have gained a couple ticks on the fastball though his numbers are not as strong as at Koushien.

In terms of offense, I'm searching for more detailed game info from Tokyo as box scores are hard to come by (for some reason), but it's certainly promising that against Kanto Dai-ichi (for the umpteenth time), down the lineup almost everyone collected a hit - this compared with Hanasaki Tokuharu and their main guy Okazaki Daisuke (岡崎 大輔).

I'll need to do some extra research (when I'm not at work) to find more batting/pitching details, but pitching being equal the results for Nishogakushadai Fuzoku look much better.

Kagoshima Jitsugyou (aka Kajitsu) seems to back on the upswing, and when they usually appear they have some success. Plus, their schedule was a bit more difficult than Nichinan Gakuen, facing Shounan and Kagoshima Jyousai in the prefecturals. And while Kyushu Sangyoudai Kyushu should have given them a bit of a shakedown, it was Kajitsu who was doing the shaking down before inexplicably falling to Kaisei.

It seems like in that loss to Kaisei, ace Maruyama Takuya (丸山 拓也) seemed to start off well, but was relieved when his pitching collapsed in the 3rd. Tanimura Takuya (谷村 拓哉) is a submarine reliever though how I have video of him and not their ace is baffling other than just because of his delivery. Outside of the Kagoshima Jyousai game, neither pitcher puts up strong K numbers.

Offensively, it's the heart of the lineup that consistently produces. Specifially, 1B Wataya Itsuki (綿屋 樹) and 3B Itagoe Yuuki (板越 夕桂) (who has actual Koushien experience against Hokkai) who pounds out hit after hit and drives in runs. But the other team members need to get on base, and while they may not hit at the same clip, they do seem to draw walks which can help, but needs help from the other side too, and you can't expect that.

The thing is, there is enough offense out there it seems to make some kind of run. I don't think it's a championship run, and the pitching staff would limit that further.

Nichinan Gakuen is no stranger to Koshien, but they tend to go years between appearances and it's been a while since they've had a modicum of success. Furthermore, the resume is rather light as they didn't face any of the familiar teams out of Miyazaki, and then also got a favorable schedule in the super-regionals before finally running into Shounan in the quarterfinals, just eking that one out before getting routed by Shuugakukan.

With such a soft schedule it is hard to make any good analysis on their prospects. Ace Moriyama Genki (森山 弦暉) seems to be the guy they realistically trust in their big games, but I don't have any info on him (natch). His big problem seems to be getting out of the gate, having given up 7 runs in the first 2 innings of the semis and finals. Minoo Yuuki (蓑尾 優希), Ueno and Kurihara were used in relief, but again, not when they faced Koushien-level competition.

Offenseively, cleanup hitter LF Masuda Kaisei (益田 海成) was by far their most consistent hitter on the team, but you couldn't say look at the top of the lineup and see a decent set of hitters, and that is also concerning. This may mean that they only way they got a bit was because of their soft schedule.

Expect a one-and-done performance barring an easy pairing, and that's no gimme either.

So once again both Kaisei's are in, so you can either differentiate it by their kanji (開星 from Shimane, 海星 from Nagasaki), or just make that delineation beforehand.

Now, they did struggle out of the gate against Sasebo Kougyou, but otherwise breezed through the prefecturals and included a win against Nagasaki Nichidai. They then proceeded to blow out former Koushien participants Kounan and Kitsuki before holding on against Kagoshima Jitsugyou (another Koushien regular) to reach the finals... where they were then promptly blown out.

So, they racked up some quality wins there, but the blowout might hurt if they were actually trying (remember by the finals they should have earned an invitation, so more work isn't necessary). And after ace Harada was relieved early in the game, they sent in other pitchers instead and probably just made sure to finish the game without injury or giving away scouting info.

So, about ace Haruta Tsuyoshi (春田 剛志), I don't have any info on him - despite this team being the runner-up in the Kyushu Super-Regionals. There might be a reason though. In his last 2 games he worked 0.2 IP against Kagoshima Jitsugyou and gave up 2 runs. Then against Shuugakukan, he gave up 3 runs in 3.2 IP. If he's the ace, this is concerning.

And none of the other pitchers fared better either. The next man up looks to be Tsuchiya Kazushi (土谷 一志), who fared much better against Kajitsu (1 run after relieving Haruta), but then gave up 2 as the last reliever against Shuugakukan. Kan Yuusuke (間 悠亮) and Hiromori Yuuto (広森 悠透) did not fare much better in the finals.

This means the offense is under a lot of pressure to make up for the apparent average pitching. CF Hattori Takahiro (服部 貴大) leads off a top-heavy lineup along with 3B Shimabara Yuuki (島原 勇樹), and C Tagawa Kenta (田川 賢汰). But the power outages against some of the well-known schools is a big concern and will present challenges right off the bat - especially with even a worse-than-average draw.

Which means their prospects are much reduced in my opinion.

Shuugakukan gets their second Senbatsu appearance in spectacular fashion by winning the super-regionals. Now, they had some hiccups, starting with a struggle against Kaishin in the prefectural quarterfinals, then having to come back against Kyushu Gakuin in the finals. But after the first game of the super-regionals where they had to come back late against Meihou, they breezed their way to the title. Despite that they were ousted in their first game of the Meiji Jingu tournament, losing 4-2 to Touhou.

Now, what has helped this team make such a run?

Perhaps it's pitching because while ace Arimura Taisei (有村 大誠) seems to be a solid ace - high 130s fastball along with a slider and curve, he actually was used less in the last couple of games, instead turning the ball over to 2B Horie Kouhei (堀江 航平) who actually was slated to be the ace until an injury prevented him from doing so, though it seems to not prevent him from pitching altogether. Weird bit is that he can still throw in the mid 130s with a slider in the 120s and a curve/changeup combo in the 110s. Even weirder, his numbers were better than Arimura's in the games where they pitched together. Also used, but not as effective were Nakai Yuusuke (中井 雄亮), who appears to be the left-handed version of Horie but worse, and to a lesser extent Taura Fumimaru (田浦 文丸) and Kawabata Kento (川端 健斗) who didn't give up a run in their stints in the super-regionals. It's weird unless Horie is coming back from injury and is finally back up to speed, which would mean they could be getting better at the position at the right time.

Offensively, there are several players who can appear to go off in a given game. They include 1B Kimoto Ryuuga (木本 凌雅), C Kuki Ryuuhei (九鬼 隆平) and especially LF Amamoto Kousuke (天本 昂佑). They aren't necessarily starved for offense per se, though 2 runs against Touhou isn't very good.

So it looks like the team should be able to hold its own against weaker competition, but may struggle once they run into established Koushien powerhouses. Barring a bad draw, expect them to finish in the middle somewhere.

This post is under the assumption that the JHBF will not go to a 2-4 distribution between Chuugoku and Shikoku. This isn't a guarantee, as neither Kaisei nor Jyosuikan has a strong resume. The problem becomes that if Shoudoshima gets invited as the West 21st century team, leaving Tosa out becomes problematic as they defeated Shoudoshima. In fact, at this point I believe Shoudoshima's finalist status becomes invalidated because of this issue. Even more bizarre, the Chuugoku finalist for the 21st century team is Izumo, who had to face Kaisei twice. Include Izumo and Kaisei throws up their hands wondering what's up. So it seems more likely now that Kaisei gets in. Man, the JHBF knows how to manipulate things.

Saibi is the benefactor of Takamatsu Shougyou's win at Meiji Jingu. Their record was just 5-2 during that time, but should be sufficient enough to get the bid. You can't necessarily fault their record either, falling short in extras against Imabari Nishi in the semifinals, then after winning the 3rd place game, beating Kochi Shougyou and Naruto before falling in a close one to Takamatsu Shougyou in the semifinals.

Predominantly the team used ace Kikuchi Satoo (菊池 怜雄) when they needed the game. There is very little information on him that I can find, but in his numbers during the super-regionals, it's not promising. His K/BB tallies was 9/7, 5/6, 5/2, 3/7. 2 of his games he had more free passes than strikeouts, and that's never good.

Offensively, the team does collect hits down the line, though if you wanted me to highlight a batter or two, I could point out leadoff hitter SS Wada Renjirou (和田 蓮次郎) which I have a defensive video for instead of one at the plate, and CF Miura Shunya (三浦 俊哉) though he hits in the 7-hole.

With the pitching apparently on very shaky ground, it is no wonder then that Takamatsu Shougyou didn't mind winning - or maybe that the other teams didn't mind either. Sadly, the team may have reached their peak when they had Jyoukou-kantoku and ace Anraku because it really doesn't look like they have a chance here.

So Meitoku Gijyuku this time around avoids any controversy regarding their bid by finishing as the runner-up in the Shikoku super-regionals.

After 2 blowout wins, they settled down to defeat Tosa and Kochi Shougyou to take the prefectural title. Once super-regional play started, they struggled to hold on against Nitta, and then had to face Tosa again, eking out a 4-3 win in 10 innings before ace Nakano finally fell flat in the final.

Speaking of which, Nakano Takashi (中野 恭聖) appears just removed from his stint at Ehime Nishi Senior Little League. Reports have him at 136, though if we take into account regional guns (outside of main stadiums) are generally fast, we would be better to assume that he's in the low 130s. The K numbers are a far cry from the time of Kishi, averaging 2-3 Ks per 9 and has a BB/K rate that looks like a K/BB rate - which is why there might be little data on him.

Worse yet, their final 3 games the managed jut 6 hits in each of them. and their most consistent hitters have been their leadoff hitter, CF Tachibana Koutarou (立花 虎太郎), and their #9 hitter, Nakano himself. That's not all that good.

As a result, while they are returning to Koushien, it's hard to envisage a deep run. Instead it's a fortunate bid in a rebuilding process.

So Takamatsu Shougyou won it all. And I mean won the Meiji Jingu taikai. The thing is, in the grand scheme of things the only thing that means is that they have given their super-region an extra bid (which will go to Saibi for better or worse).

Nanyou Kougyou's resume at first looks pretty bad. In the prefecturals they struggled in 3 straight matchups against no-name teams, going to the last inning (twice to enchousen) to pull off the victory. Then they scrambled for 3rd place after losing to Ube Shougyou in the semifinals.

Despite all that, they apparently embraced their cardiac kid status, using it to defeat Tottori Jyouhoku (just), Hayatomo and Jyosuikan. It could not save them against Soushi Gakuen though as they were blown out 12-1.

The team generally uses a tandem of pitchers each game. They are Shigetomi Masaki (重冨 将希), and Fujimoto Daisuke (藤本 大輔). But being in the Chuugoku region, there is little information on these pitchers. The only reports I can find are that they can hit the low 140s, but nothing in terms on types of pitches. And being second hand reports from unestablished places, I probably put their velocity in the high 130s at best. Also, their strikeout rates as a team are below-average, so that would lead some evidence to the supposition.

The one oddity is that like Kwansei Gakuin and their catcher/pitcher Yamazaki, Fujimoto is also their catcher turn pitcher. It's rare because usually a case where you start both pitchers the other is in the outfield or at 1B, but rarely ever catcher. So it'll be interesting to see another case where the battery are the team's primary pitchers.

Occasionally there is a pitcher that fills in between the two, and information is so scarce I only have his last name Houki or Takaragi (宝木). That's it. Given that he gave up 2 runs in 0.1 innings of work, I doubt he'll be used at all unless it's a blowout.

But once again, offensively we have a state wherein the ace pitcher is their best hitter. And when your relief pitcher is your second best, well... you might have a problem. These two generally bat in the heart of the order, along with 3B Yamaguchi Yuuta (山口 勇太). There can be something said for a team that can battle in the close games, but in general it can only get you so far. And in a weak super-region, it's not a plus at all.

While I would like to see how another P/C duo works, I highly doubt their chances of making a good run.

Soushi Gakuen, despite winning the Chuugoku Super-Regionals, did not sport a strong strength of opposition. They did not face any of the powerhouses in Okayama (Kanzei, Kurashiki Shougyou, Okayama Ridai Fuzoku and Tamano Kounan). Now, they got better tests in the super-regionals in Ube Shougyou, Kaisei and Nanyou Kougyou (though 2 of those are from Yamaguchi and while they're generally strong teams in prefecture, in the aggregate they're not quite the cream of the crop). Tsuruga Kehi sent them crashing back to Earth with a sound 5-1 win.

On the mound, it's all ace Takada Housei (高田 萌生). The reports have him hitting 150, but the video of him at Meiji Jingu show something around 140 flat. He has a changeup to compliment the standard slider and in this case slow curve. His K rates though, stay rather consistent, carrying a 7 K/9 ratio in all games but 2, and one of them was a called game. He's garnered attention from several pro scouts, and if he can continue his work on the mound he at least gives his team a chance.

Offensively, their main lynchpin of the offense is their leadoff hitter LF Nanba Yuuhei (難波侑平) who hit 0.500 in the super-regionals. There's also CF Kusaka Jin (草加 稔), and to a lesser extent SS Kitayama Haruki (北川 遥貴). It's odd having them spread out instead of bunched together, and the only thing I can think of is that they are trying to give their team a scoring opportunity every inning instead of a black hole. But it can also mean that they have a chance each inning of having their rally die.

They can have a chance to win a game or two, but for a super-regional champ it's a rather dour outlook.

Chiben Gakuen by default looks to secure the final spot in the Kinki region on the basis that the other 2 quarterfinalists resume's are just as bad. They did play Yamato Kouryou and Naradai Fuzoku, but while they may be above average (and have gone to Koushien), the gap between it and almost all the other schools is still rather big. The loss to Osaka Touin would normally eliminate it in other years, but again, since Shiritsu Wakayama and Hannandai were mercy-ruled and shutout, here they are.

Their apparent saving grace is their ace Murakami Shouki (村上 頌樹). He actually pitched at Koushien in his first year, the last pitcher in a blowout loss to Meitoku Gijyuku. He faced 3 batters, gave up a hit, and struck out a batter. Back then he was hitting upper 130s. Apparently he still does, along with a slider, change and curve. His K rate is probably in line with an above average pitcher, but as in the Osaka Touin and Naradai Fuzoku games, can be prone to give up walks.

Offensively, the best batter by far is their leadoff batter SS Oota Hideki (太田 英毅). He was able to collect a base hit in their last 4 games, even plating 3 of their 4 runs against Shinkou Gakuen. The rest of the team is inconsistent, and Murakami himself batting 3rd means that they may be a bit offensively challenged.

Their prospects are not good, and they'll need a better than average draw to get past the first game.