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Showing posts with label Any Day Now. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Any Day Now. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Any Day Now™, Day 817
























We hesitate to bring this up, because it only goads the low-information monkeys to dig around their cages for some feces to fling to fend off Reality, but we cannot help but kick them in the crotch again by pointing out that nearly another month has passed since Ukraine was totally defeated. Which foregone outcome we were assured of, most earnestly, by people who were sure that Any Day Now™, it would inevitably be so.

At the beginning of the month, faithful Putinophiles, like Chicago Cubs fans for over a century, thought "This will finally be our season". Because Vlad said so. For only the 111th time.

Sh'yeah, right. What could possibly go wrong?


Double bummer for the faithful Putinophiles: The Telegraph is Britistan's conservative daily, not one of the Useful Idiot-run reliably commie-tard house organs.

Three weeks later, in week 115 of "Just Two Weeks To Flatten Kiev", unlike countless promises, the only thing Putin has filled with relentless persistence are more Russian body bags (when they even bother to collect their dead).

Pretty much like every day since 2/26/22.

The lines shift a few yards each way back and forth, as they have for over 18 months, like a profoundly retarded refighting of the Somme, except less capably. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes occasionally.

Bean-counters on both sides in 1915 thought they could win, if only they could throw enough men into the machineguns. Europe lost an entire generation disproving that monumental, and monumentally idiotic, military policy. Putin evidently hasn't played enough tic-tac-toe to learn the lesson yet.

The Usual Retards won't read this deep, but that doesn't mean "Ukraine Is Winning", unless you consider France or Belgium in 1919 what "winning" looks like. Common Core grads should probably look that one up before continuing.

It also doesn't mean we should be giving Ukraine an endless unlimited commitment, and it sure as hell means that we shouldn't send anyone there to fight their war for them*. But as we pointed out two years ago, the minute this shifted from them doing what they could with what they had, to doing what they could with what the West would supply, it meant the end of Western aid would also mean the end of Ukraine. So, before anyone advocates cutting them off, they need to answer how the tactic of pulling out down the road worked out for the U.S. in South Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. They should show all work for that answer.

It does mean that Putin hasn't run out of toes on his feet to keep shooting yet, and that no one in his inner circle has worked up enough guts to hold a Makarov Retirement Party for the Russian Captain Ahab. Yet.

But even if Putin survives long enough to see his press-ganged mob of sad sacks somehow stumble and bumble their way into Kiev tomorrow, one has to wonder who in their right mind thinks the surviving Ukrainians would just roll over and forgive, and settle back into Russia's yoke. Let alone forecast that the rest of Eurostan and most of the world not getting cheap Russian oil would ever end sanctions or forget Russian aggression. Russia is going to be a pariah state for the next century. Enjoy that whole sh*t sandwich, and swallow every bite. Sweden and Finland have already given their answer, anchoring themselves firmly to NATO. Vlad's adventurism has managed to do more to revive NATO in two years than Reagan and the Bush family managed to do in twenty.

Salesman Of The Century props to Vlad for that, alone. 
One invasion speaks more eloquently than a thousand harangues.

The Usual Suspects will root around, and find someone like The Saker or some other tired old KGB mouthpiece to cheer them up with more bedtime fairytales about inevitable Russian invincibility, but millions of people who live in the real world, from retired shipyard workers in Gdansk to aging Tajik, Uzbek, and Pashtun tribesmen in the Kindu Kush know better. 

Maybe next year, Moscow Cubs fans. Maybe next year.












*(If anyone thinks we haven't had SF teams and military attachés there in harm's way since Day Two, and should not, you're really too naïve to be on the internet without adult supervision. The not-too-difficult trick is to remember that doesn't mean they should be covered by the 82d Airborne and TacAir. We tried that after the Gulf Of Tonkin, and it didn't work out too well. One thing does not require the other.)

Friday, September 15, 2023

Just Saying...














It's been awhile, and we just wanted to give the knee-jerk shit-flinging monkeys something to do before the feces build-up in their cages gets above their eyes.

It isn't like they're going to catch a clue or anything, no matter how gently we suggest they try a more nuanced tack.

Just to be sporting, we'll bet a modest sum at even odds that we can repost this again in 400 more days, with similar or worse performance by Russia's conscript army, if you can find an acceptable neutral party to hold the cash. All you monkeys will have to put your money where your mouth is to play.

Monday, September 4, 2023

What Is The Sound Of One Buttcheek Flapping?









We ask that question, because this is the most Pollyannish, "Remain calm! All is well!" load of half-assed codswallop we've seen since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

And considering all the recokulous bullshit spewed on the topic to date, that's saying something.

Kill twenty minutes, and a few brain cells, because you'll be dumber for reading the whole thing, but take one for the team and do it anyways.

Then, maybe someone who plays over yonder could ask Armchair Warlord a few pointed questions.

1) How far short of their conscription goals did Russia's planned 300K mobilization fall?

1a) Who did they get, when some 6,000,000 draftable military-aged Russian males GTFO of Dodge last year, to Anywhere But Russia, rather than be drafted, and when report after report - with Russian MoD photographic proof - of the sick, lame, and lazy, blind, crippled, and crazy were "the best they could come up with?

2) Of the 350,000 initial total ground forces they started out with last year

a) how many of them did Russia lose, KIA, WIA, DOW, crippled for life, etc., to date?

b) of the 183 nominal fieldable battalions On War Day One, how many of those were destroyed to date in Ukraine?

c) Of those Imaginary 395 maneuver battalions AW ass-trapolated exist now, where in blistering fuck did the tanks, APCs, support vehicles, AKs, shovels, mess kits, clothing, boots, and underpants needed to increase the Russian Army by 116%, and make good all combat losses in Ukraine simultaneously, generate from, other than somewhere deep inside his own underpants? 

3) If the Russians are doing an "all of the above" refit and mobilization, where in blistering fuck are all these imaginary T80s and T-90s hiding?

3b) Granting arguendo the recockulous idea that Russia has the industrial capacity to start shitting out metric fucktons of T-80s and T-90s and that they could even make enough to cover losses, why would they even bother to undertake a 3-year refit of museum-piece brew-up-at-a-flick T-62s (obsolete when Nixon was president, FFS), rather than just crank out even more metric fucktons of those world-beating T-80s and T-90s alone, instead of more cannon fodder for anything from a LAAW on up?

[Hint: "I need so many tanks, I'm going to refit those M-4 Shermans and M-48 Pattons to fight alongside my M-1A1 and M-1A2 Abrams tanks"...said no general ever.]

4) If Putin could do all of this while getting his army's ass kicked halfway back to their start lines since August, what magical new operational art have they learned while parked, or driving in reverse for the last year? Where? When? How? This is operational art via the Underpants Gnome.

Granting some of AW's mathematics, he forgets a wee bit:

A) He's accounted for exactly 0% of Russian losses to date, which even Russia acknowledges have been prodigious.

B) He imagines the Russians, who haven't been able to find their own asses four days in a row since the first day of the invasion, now possess a resurrected Marshal Zhukov, with vast Russian hordes of troops ready to sweep across the steppes like Genghis Khan. Sh'yeah; when monkeys fly outta my butt.

C) He neglects the vastly diminished capability of Russia to lay down artillery barrages, evidenced by the steadily shrinking output of rounds from the peak last summer.

D) He hasn't explained the near total lack of Russian ability to conduct combined arms attacks, ever, in any way, pretty much once since 1946.

E) He neglects to tell us where the vaunted Russian Air Force has been hiding since February 28th, 2022. Currently, there are more MiGs on Moscow milk cartons than there are seen in theater, and that's been true since last March.

F) The only Russians suffering more losses than Russian privates are Russian generals. That's also the only military demographic where Putin's body count has outstripped Ukraine's.

- - -

In short, rosiest assumptions to the fore, Russia might have been able to replace half their losses since this started. With even less experienced troops and officers, and older and more decrepit equipment - when they even have enough boots and rifles to issue to troops - fighting the same way that's seen them pushed back inexorably for a year.

Not construct an army two and a half times as big as the one Putin created in 30 years since the fall of the Soviet Union.

That's dorm-room bong-level bullshit.

And the single-most effective Russian unit to date was Wagner Group, which has been quite simply destroyed. It no longer exists. Their Spetznaz and airborne troops, the only other formations that rose to a level above mediocre, were erased last year trying to take Kiev and the nearby airport. Well-played.

And just because you write a new version of "Any Day Now" in red letters twenty feet high all over the Kremlin, it doesn't make it true.

The linked piece puts the "anal" in "analysis".

It should have been left up his ass, not pulled out on the end of his thumb and polished.