---

Tango on Baseball

Support my research by buying my book. THE BOOK—Playing The Percentages In Baseball. Welcome to the Tango on Baseball Page. If Linear Weights, Run Expectancy, and Runs Created mean something to you, if you are a fan of Pete Palmer or Bill James, then you've come to the right place. This is just a dumping ground for research or reports that I've done, and people might find interesting. One day, I will post all my research here. You can also contact me at tangotiger@yahoo.com . All information is here for you to use for your own purposes (download away). You can share all this information, but please attribute me. You cannot generate any kind of revenue, income, or barter by reproducing or sharing this information. All materials copyrighted.

---

THE BOOK -- Blog
The 2008 Scouting Report - Ballot (Aug, 2008)
Changing on the fly Rule changes (Apr, 2008)
With the game on the line, I want... The Great Clutch Project (Apr, 2008)
Changes in home run rates during the Retrosheet years (Feb, 2008)
Fielding aging curves (Feb, 2008)
The 2007 Community Forecasts - Ballot (Mar, 2007)
The 2006 Scouting Report - RESULTS (Oct, 2006)
The Secret Recipes of Leverage Index (May, 2006)
The Complete Leverage Index Chart (May, 2006)
Win Expectancy and Leverage Index Now on FanGraphs.com! (May, 2006)
Relievers and the Three-Run Save (Apr, 2006)
Pitching Around Batters by Andrew Dolphin (Apr, 2006)
What Is Manny Really Worth by Mitchel Lichtman (Mar, 2006)
Forecasting 2006 (Feb, 2006)

---

---

RESEARCH

Table of Contents

1. Base Runs (and Linear Weights)
2. Crucial Situations (Win Expectancy and Relievers)
3. DIPS
4. Fielding
5. Fans' Scouting Report
6. Linear Weights (and Run Expectancy)
7. Projections & Trajectories
8. Runs & Wins
9. SABR 101, 201, 301
10. Various
11. Win Shares
12. Workbooks

 

BASE RUNS (and Linear Weights)
How Are Runs Really Created Article 1 Article 2 Article 3	An in-depth look at Runs Created, Linear Weights, and BaseRuns
BaseRuns	Addendum to "Article 3" of the Primer article on "How Runs are Really Created". It's the full gory technical formula. I suggest you stick to David's simple and elegant formula for most cases.
Custom Linear Weights	Using David Smyth's revolutionary BaseRuns work
Chart of Custom LWTS values	Cool chart of the above data
OPS: Begone Part 1 Part 2	Using BaseRuns to set the limits to OPS.
CRUCIAL SITUATIONS (Win Expectancy and Relievers)
Are Managers Optimizing their Best Relievers?	How are current-day managers using their best relievers. A special look at the Yankees as well.
Breakdowns Blyleven's Leveraged Index Blyleven and Morris's LI How were Gossage and Sutter used? Shuey and Stanton Urbina, leveraged	How did various pitcher perform in various fire levels?
Crucial Innings Article Chart (PDF)	What are the most high-leverage single PA situations? Using Win Expectancy and the inning/score/base/out matrix, we find the answer. Look for the cool chart at the end.
Relievers Leverage the Hall Of Fame	Using Leveraged Index, how do Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage and Lee Smith stack up to the great starters.
Win Expectancy Chart	The chance of winning the game with a 1 run score differential in the 7th or later innings, with all outs and base situations. Mathematically generated.
Walking Barry Bonds . When to Walk Barry Bonds, Giants on Road . When to Walk Barry Bonds, Giants at Home	Using Win Expectancy, and not Run Expectancy
DIPS
Batting average on Balls in Play, by Team/Park, 1974-1990 1999-2002	Don't trust those DER numbers, without adjusting for park.
Defensive Responsibility Spectrum	Breaking up the responsibility between fielders and pitchers, and introducing FIP-runs for pitchers.
DIPS Bands	A look at how good pitchers are at preventing hits on balls in play, compared to their teammates, by different levels of BIP.
DIPS 2001 v1.1	A look at the leaders and trailers, using Voros' DIPS ($H) concept
DIPS for at least 175 Wins, born since 1900, through 2000
DIPS for top 20 in wins, born 1949-1968
FIELDING
Evaluating Catchers	A revolutionary approach to evaluating catchers.
UZR, Cin, 1999-2002
UZR, 2000-2003, min 120 games, by player/position
UZR, 1999-2003, True Talent levels
FANS' SCOUTING REPORT
The Project The 2005 Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans The 2004 Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans	How hardcore fans since the fielding traits of MLB players.
The 2003 Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans Catcher Report 3B Report 1B Report Most Similar Fielders Best and Worst Tools in Baseball
LINEAR WEIGHTS (and Run Expectancy)
Linear Weights by Men On Base	Since not every hitter faces the same number of opportunities to move runners over, it's obvious that each type of hit is worth differently based on those men on base conditions.
Linear Weights by Men On Base and Outs Linear Weights by Men On Base and Outs, 99-02	Same as above, but with the 24 base-out states
Linear Weights Ratio	A rate-type stat using the Linear Weights concept
Run expectancy matrix, 99-02
Run frequency matrix, 99-02
PROJECTIONS & TRAJECTORIES
Aging Patterns	I discuss some analysis techniques, along with how to look for aging patterns, specifically by ignoring the player's last year of his career.
Aging Patterns, by components	A quick look as to how hitter age, by HR, walks, SB, etc.
Aging Patterns and Selective Sampling	Being careful how to create your forecasts
Banner Years	Can we look at banner years to determine a new established level of performance? No.
Do Speedsters Age Differently Than Leadfooters?	A quick look using my version of similarity scores.
Felipe Alou	How players perform with Alou. Are they more aggressive? No.
Forecast 2003 . Introduction . The Picks . The Results - Part 1 . The Results - Part 2	I ask 6 forecasters to use their engines to predict the OPS and ERA of the 32 hardest-to-forecast players. I ask 165 Primer Readers to make those same predictions by the seat-of-their-pants. I create a baseline that is based on the last 3 year's performance. At the end of 2003, we'll see how everyone did.
Forecasting Pitchers - Adjacent Seasons	Trying to establish the aging patterns for pitchers, by component.
The 2005 Marcels	Forecast for the 2005 season.
Why I Hate MLEs	I have an (amateur) 5-point checklist that I use to evaluate a scientific study. I apply these points to look at issues with Minor League Equivalencies (MLEs).
ESPN - Balancing the Draft between College and High School Pitchers
RUNS & WINS
Runs to Wins Converters . Part 1 . Part 2 . Part 3	A chart of PythagoPort, PythagoPat, and the Tango Distribution.
SABR 101, 201, 301
SABR 101 - Relative and Absolute Scales	Some useful material to be aware of regarding marginal and total utility. This information is critical.
SABR 301 - Pitch Counts - Part 1 SABR 301 - Pitch Counts - Part 2 SABR 301 - Pitch Counts - Part 3 SABR 301 - Pitch Counts - Part 4 Some thoughts on Pitch Count Estimators	How to estimate pitch counts.
SABR 301 - Talent Distributions	Theoretical distribution of talent. When you consider the playing time, the distribution is rather typical.
SABR 301 - Top 4 Starters	Number of starts made by the top 4 starters. Cool chart at the end.
VARIOUS
Clutch Hitting	Does clutch hitting exist? Yes!
Let's Contract Two Different Teams	A tongue-in-cheek look at what two teams we should contract, but with a very real reason as to the imbalance that currently exists.
Runs Produced	You have to take off the HR in R+RBI. No question about it.
Sosa, 500
Taking the Extra Base	A look at where the runners and batters end up, on various hit/runner/out situations.
WIN SHARES
Part 1 Explaining Bill James' Win Shares	Bill James is actually embracing Linear Weights, but he doesn't realize it.
Part2 Bill James just doesn't get it	I defend Linear Weights, and I try to explain Win Shares in one paragraph.
Part 3 Win Shares and Loss Shares	The last in my trilogy. And this time I actually make some useful suggestions for a better evaluator.
Win Shares discussion with Rob Wood	1.3 MB PDF document.
WORKBOOKS
Clutch Data
Tango Distribution (Program) Tango Distribution (Discussion)	The exe file that generates the expected win% given two teams' R/G.