The 500 HR club has come into question. Because it is apparently easier to hit HR now, perhaps the line should be moved up to account for this. First of all, is this so? And secondly, how can we do it?
Here is a table of the 10th best HR totals, for selected years.
| Year | HR-10
|
| 1920 | 11
|
| 1930 | 35
|
| 1940 | 25
|
| 1950 | 31
|
| 1960 | 31
|
| 1970 | 36
|
| 1980 | 29
|
| 1990 | 32
|
| 2000 | 42
|
We see that some years it's easier for the big boppers to get many HR, and other years it's harder. And these days, it's much easier.
Here's where we have some fun, and I'll use Sammy as my example to go through it step-by-step. In 2002, the average hitter had 614 AB, and the 10th best HR total was 39. Sammy Sosa had 556 AB. Since Sammy had 90% of the AB of the average hitter, we will reduce that 39 HR figure by 10%. The new baseline HR figure, for Sammy, is 35 HR. We do this for every year that Sammy played. Here's how Sammy did, as well as his baseline peer.
| Year | AB | HR | HR-10 | Diff | Rate
|
| 1989 | 183 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 44
|
| 1990 | 532 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 54
|
| 1991 | 316 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 63
|
| 1992 | 262 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 57
|
| 1993 | 598 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 94
|
| 1994 | 426 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 119
|
| 1995 | 564 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 113
|
| 1996 | 498 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 118
|
| 1997 | 642 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 86
|
| 1998 | 643 | 66 | 46 | 20 | 143
|
| 1999 | 625 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 150
|
| 2000 | 604 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 122
|
| 2001 | 577 | 64 | 38 | 26 | 168
|
| 2002 | 556 | 49 | 35 | 14 | 140
|
| Total | 7026 | 499 | 433 | 66 | 115
|
Sammy Sosa has 66 HR more (and 15% more) than the 10th best HR hitter of each year, while Sosa was playing.
Without any more delay, here are all players, since 1919 with 3000 AB, with a career HR total that is at least equal to his peer-baseline
| Fname | Lname | HR | HR-10 | Diff | Rate
|
| Babe | Ruth | 694 | 236 | 458 | 294
|
| Mark | McGwire | 583 | 359 | 224 | 162
|
| Jimmie | Foxx | 534 | 313 | 221 | 171
|
| Lou | Gehrig | 493 | 295 | 198 | 167
|
| Ted | Williams | 521 | 331 | 190 | 157
|
| Mel | Ott | 511 | 349 | 162 | 146
|
| Harmon | Killebrew | 573 | 416 | 157 | 138
|
| Mike | Schmidt | 548 | 405 | 143 | 135
|
| Ralph | Kiner | 369 | 228 | 141 | 162
|
| Mickey | Mantle | 536 | 398 | 138 | 135
|
| Hank | Aaron | 755 | 618 | 137 | 122
|
| Hank | Greenberg | 331 | 197 | 134 | 168
|
| Barry | Bonds | 613 | 484 | 129 | 127
|
| Dave | Kingman | 442 | 322 | 120 | 137
|
| Willie | Mays | 660 | 548 | 112 | 120
|
| Willie | McCovey | 521 | 412 | 109 | 126
|
| Johnny | Mize | 359 | 264 | 95 | 136
|
| Cy | Williams | 211 | 118 | 93 | 179
|
| Rogers | Hornsby | 282 | 189 | 93 | 149
|
| Eddie | Mathews | 512 | 424 | 88 | 121
|
| Willie | Stargell | 475 | 390 | 85 | 122
|
| Joe | DiMaggio | 361 | 280 | 81 | 129
|
| Frank | Robinson | 586 | 506 | 80 | 116
|
| Reggie | Jackson | 563 | 485 | 78 | 116
|
| Hack | Wilson | 244 | 167 | 77 | 146
|
| Ken | Williams | 196 | 121 | 75 | 162
|
| Hank | Sauer | 288 | 218 | 70 | 132
|
| Rudy | York | 277 | 208 | 69 | 133
|
| Sammy | Sosa | 499 | 432 | 67 | 116
|
| Duke | Snider | 407 | 341 | 66 | 119
|
| Jose | Canseco | 462 | 403 | 59 | 115
|
| Charlie | Keller | 189 | 134 | 55 | 141
|
| Ken | Griffey Jr. | 468 | 415 | 53 | 113
|
| Frank | Howard | 382 | 335 | 47 | 114
|
| Roy | Campanella | 242 | 196 | 46 | 123
|
| Darryl | Strawberry | 335 | 289 | 46 | 116
|
| Chuck | Klein | 300 | 256 | 44 | 117
|
| Gus | Zernial | 237 | 194 | 43 | 122
|
| Wally | Berger | 242 | 199 | 43 | 122
|
| Rocky | Colavito | 374 | 331 | 43 | 113
|
| Gorman | Thomas | 268 | 227 | 41 | 118
|
| Bob | Johnson | 288 | 248 | 40 | 116
|
| Jim | Thome | 334 | 295 | 39 | 113
|
| Dick | Allen | 351 | 313 | 38 | 112
|
| Bill | Nicholson | 235 | 198 | 37 | 119
|
| Dolph | Camilli | 239 | 202 | 37 | 118
|
| Gil | Hodges | 370 | 334 | 36 | 111
|
| Ernie | Banks | 512 | 478 | 34 | 107
|
| Joe | Gordon | 253 | 220 | 33 | 115
|
| Norm | Cash | 377 | 344 | 33 | 110
|
| Bob | Horner | 218 | 186 | 32 | 117
|
| Juan | Gonzalez | 405 | 374 | 31 | 108
|
| Hal | Trosky | 228 | 200 | 28 | 114
|
| Rob | Deer | 230 | 202 | 28 | 114
|
| Cecil | Fielder | 319 | 293 | 26 | 109
|
| Albert | Belle | 381 | 356 | 25 | 107
|
| Jack | Fournier | 121 | 97 | 24 | 125
|
| Manny | Ramirez | 310 | 287 | 23 | 108
|
| Mike | Piazza | 347 | 325 | 22 | 107
|
| Steve | Balboni | 181 | 160 | 21 | 113
|
| Dick | Stuart | 228 | 207 | 21 | 110
|
| Jay | Buhner | 310 | 293 | 17 | 106
|
| Al | Rosen | 192 | 176 | 16 | 109
|
| Roger | Maris | 275 | 259 | 16 | 106
|
| Johnny | Bench | 389 | 373 | 16 | 104
|
| Kevin | Mitchell | 234 | 219 | 15 | 107
|
| Jeff | Heath | 194 | 180 | 14 | 108
|
| Chet | Laabs | 117 | 106 | 11 | 110
|
| Wally | Post | 210 | 200 | 10 | 105
|
| Gabby | Hartnett | 236 | 228 | 8 | 104
|
| George | Foster | 348 | 340 | 8 | 102
|
| Alex | Rodriguez | 298 | 291 | 7 | 102
|
| Boog | Powell | 339 | 332 | 7 | 102
|
| Frank | Thomas | 376 | 369 | 7 | 102
|
| Cliff | Johnson | 196 | 190 | 6 | 103
|
| Joe | Adcock | 336 | 330 | 6 | 102
|
| Larry | Doby | 253 | 249 | 4 | 102
|
| Roy | Sievers | 318 | 314 | 4 | 101
|
| Whitey | Kurowski | 106 | 104 | 2 | 102
|
| Tommy | Henrich | 183 | 182 | 1 | 101
|
| Nate | Colbert | 173 | 173 | 0 | 100
|
| Glenn | Davis | 190 | 190 | 0 | 100
|
| John | Mayberry | 255 | 255 | 0 | 100
|
| Dale | Murphy | 398 | 398 | 0 | 100
|
There are many problems with this perspective: (1) the more hitters you have, the higher the baseline level, (2) the HR figures for the league used gross figures and were not AB adjusted, (3) using one spot (the 10th highest) can cause huge swings, (4) a player stretching out his career will start to lose "points" as he gets further and further away from that top 10 spot. And I'm sure there are many, many more. But, I did this for fun more than anything, and I hope you enjoyed it.