Baseball skills follow a certain aging pattern. They appreciate considerably in the early twenties, hover at a peak in the late 20s, slowly start to erode in the 30s, and quickly diminish in their late 30s. This is intuitive to most people, and can be substantiated in a study I published here: Age Factors for Hitting Events . That study further breaks down how each of the hitting components ages. Speed dimishes starting at age 24, while walks dimish starting at age 32. This again makes sense.
But can certain styles of hitters age differently? That is, is it possible that a speedster's hitting skills diminish at a different rate from the hitting skills of a leadfooted hitter?
For this study, I looked at all hitters born between 1941 and 1960, and looked at their career totals up until age 30 (with a minimum of 2500 PA). I selected the 20 best hitting speedsters from that list. Here they are:
Best-hitting speedsters, born 1941-1960, up to age 30 Raines, Tim Henderson, Rickey Bonds, Bobby Morgan, Joe Cedeno, Cesar Gibson, Kirk Van Slyke, Andy Dawson, Andre Sandberg, Ryne Smith, Lonnie Garr, Ralph McBride, Bake Richards, Gene Molitor, Paul LeFlore, Ron McGee, Willie Wilson, Willie Kelly, Pat Mumphrey, Jerry Samuel, Juan
No big surprises here. The usual suspects like Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, and Ron Leflore are here.
Working from the same list, I selected each hitter's leadfooted twin. That is, which player has the same hitting style and same level of offense as Tim Raines, but doesn't have his speed? Based on similarity scores I am developing, the answer to that question is Wade Boggs. Here are the leadfooted hitting twins to our speedsters:
Best-hitting speedsters, born 1941-1960, up to age 30, and their leadfooted twins Speedster LeadFoot Raines, Tim Boggs, Wade Henderson, R Singleton, Ken Bonds, Bobby Luzinski, Greg Morgan, Joe Davis, Alvin Cedeno, Cesar Watson, Bob Gibson, Kirk Aikens, Willie Van Slyke, Andy Evans, Dwight Dawson, Andre May, Lee Sandberg, Ryne Garvey, Steve Smith, Lonnie Grubb, Johnny Garr, Ralph Oliver, Al McBride, Bake Braun, Steve Richards, Gene Hunt, Ron Molitor, Paul Montanez, Willie LeFlore, Ron Chambliss, Chris McGee, Willie Tabler, Pat Wilson, Willie Piniella, Lou Kelly, Pat Smalley, Roy Mumphrey, Jerry Bell, Buddy Samuel, Juan Parrish, Larry
I excluded catchers from this list, because catchers have other things working against them that our speedsters don't have. Again, while we don't have many surprises, it is an interesting list. Andy VanSlyke without speed? Dwight Evans. Ryne Sandberg without speed? Steve Garvey. Remember, the comparisons are only made with stats up to age 30.
Here are their average totals
Average of players born 1941-1960, up to age 30 Style PA G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SH SF SB CS BB IBB HBP SO Speedster 4,349 1,034 3,901 628 1,117 180 52 90 425 21 28 295 84 395 34 27 597 Leadfoot 4,253 1,055 3,789 508 1,080 194 23 106 516 23 35 26 25 398 45 31 528
The Speedsters had almost 100 more PA, but 21 less games. This makes sense as the Speedsters have many leadoff hitters that would accumulate many more 5 PA games than their leadfooted twin. All in all, except for the SB, a pretty good matchup. Now, what happened to these players after the age of 30? Here are their totals
Average of players born 1941-1960, after age 30 Style PA G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SH SF SB CS BB IBB HBP SO Speedster 3,307 848 2,912 459 819 142 26 78 369 12 28 147 45 347 27 20 448 Leadfoot 2,938 773 2,609 341 729 130 12 76 366 8 25 13 14 289 35 15 347
The speedsters average 75 more games for their post-30 career. Hardly a significant advantage. Pro-rating all their stats to 600 PAs, this is how these players compare.
Speedsters Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SH SF SB CS BB IBB HBP SO Pre-30 143 538 87 154 25 7 12 59 3 4 41 12 54 5 4 82 Post-30 154 528 83 149 26 5 14 67 2 5 27 8 63 5 4 81 Leadfoot Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SH SF SB CS BB IBB HBP SO Pre-30 149 535 72 152 27 3 15 73 3 5 4 4 56 6 4 75 Post-30 158 533 70 149 26 3 15 75 2 5 3 3 59 7 3 71
The speedsters pretty much had the same stats/600 PA. A few less singles, a few more HR, and a few more BB. Their speed numbers came down substantially. All this is as you'd expect from any hitter.
The leadfooters actually look more consistent than their speedtwins. But again, the numbers are so close, that you would expect to see minor deviations as these.
The results of this particular study (granted that there are variables, like position, that were not accounted for, and the sample size is somewhat small) shows that speedsters and leadfooters show no difference in their aging patterns. There seems to be a small tendency that a speedster will play a few more games than the leadfooter, but this difference is probably linked to the small sample size, and the effect that one player would have on the whole group. Therefore, the search for a hitter's "twin" does not appear to have predictive value. Similarity scores should not be used for projections.