Relievers Leverage Crucial SituationsAre managers optimizing their best relievers?By Tangotiger
Background
Recently, I looked at how much impact Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, and Lee Smith had as relievers. I introduced a concept called the Leverage Index (LI) which gives more weight to the innings in crucial situations, since those situations will impact the final game outcome the most.
A while ago, I also discussed the Defensive Responsibility Spectrum, which is nothing more than Voros' DIPS. I also introduced a simple measure called FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching), though I should really call it mFIP (with m meaning mostly). That formula is
In any case, the formula itself isn't too important, other than to have a decent measure to try to select from a group of pitchers. 10 Top Relievers Using the extended FIP version, here are the 10 top relievers (not league, nor park adjusted), along with the HR, NIBB (non-intential walks), and K per 9 innings, using only performances as a reliever, with at least 800 BFP over the last 4 years -
A somewhat surprising list. The similarities between Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel, and between Mariano Rivera and Stever Karsay stand out. Paul Shuey? Yes. Leverage Index (LI) We have a list, if not the top 10 relievers in the league, arguably 10 of the 20 top relievers in the league. How did their managers use them? Here are their LI, over the same time period. For a frame of reference, Bruce Sutter's career LI is 1.90, while an average LI would be 1.00. Bob Stanley's career LI is 1.30.
The Big Boys Robb Nen and Trevor Hoffman have been used very well. Not optimally (which is a topic for another article), but better than anyone else. Mariano Rivera's poor showing is at first surprising, and, a little later on, we'll take a more in-depth look at the New York Yankees reliever usage patterns over the last 4 years. Billy Wagner and UUU did have arm problems that may have given their managers a more conservative view in their usage patterns. The Next Wave Keith Foulke is the poster boy for sabermetrics relievers. His poor usage was not limited to just last year, with an LI almost 1.00. His top seasonal LI was 1.60. That the sabermetric-minded Oakland A's have traded for him is not surprising. Octavio Dotel is stuck with Billy Wagner, and Steve Karsay is stuck with Mariano Rivera (though he hasn't been effectively used prior to that). These are two valuable pitchers who have not received all the exposure they deserve. Paul Shuey. When I was a kid collecting cards, I'd know every single player in the league, along with their teams and if they were traded to. As a teenager playing fantasy baseball, I also knew about the rookie crop, and everyone primary position and age. As you are less and less involved in these kinds of enterprises, as there are more teams to keep up with, some players slip right by you. Paul Shuey has slipped right by me. Mike Stanton's very poor showing, along with Mariano Rivera's relatively low showing demands more inspection. New York Yankees 1999 - 2002 Here are the year-to-year breakdowns of all Yankee relievers with at least 150 BFP
The team LI from 1999 to 2002 were: 0.88, 0.83, 0.98, 1.05. This is probably the price you pay (or rather earn) when you have starters that continue to pitch in high-leverage situations. Within this context, the 1999 numbers of Rivera and Stanton look fine. In 2000, with even less leverage situations to work with, Rivera's numbers are excellent. Jeff Nelson (#25 over the last 4 years) had his great year, and was given the secondary role over Stanton. In 2001, things look normal. And in 2002, Rivera's LI jumps to 1.99, while Steve Karsay takes over the seconday role of Mike Stanton. Mike Stanton should have the opportunity now to show more of his stuff in the higher leverage situations. While he now has Armando Benitez (#16) to contend with, Armando does come under alot of scrutiny in the New York media and fan base. Scott Strickland (#26) is also around. Conclusion Some managers are effectively using their best relievers, and some are pitching them in more secondary roles. It's just a matter of time before the secondary relievers receive the prominence they deserve. Unfortunately, for some of these pitchers, this may come during the downward phase of their career.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||