CN102324068A - Power secondary equipment risk assessment method and system thereof - Google Patents
Power secondary equipment risk assessment method and system thereof Download PDFInfo
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- CN102324068A CN102324068A CN201110254071A CN201110254071A CN102324068A CN 102324068 A CN102324068 A CN 102324068A CN 201110254071 A CN201110254071 A CN 201110254071A CN 201110254071 A CN201110254071 A CN 201110254071A CN 102324068 A CN102324068 A CN 102324068A
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Abstract
The invention provides a power secondary equipment risk assessment method and a system thereof. By building a calculation model for secondary equipment maintenance state values in advance, the maintenance state values of secondary equipment can be calculated according to the maintenance state parameters of the power secondary equipment. By building a secondary equipment fault probability curve, the maintenance state values are converted into the fault probabilities of the secondary equipment. Then, by building a calculation model for secondary equipment fault loss values, corresponding probable losses caused by all kinds of faults to the secondary equipment are calculated. The products of the fault loss values and the fault probabilities are taken as the risk values of the secondary equipment. Secondary equipment state assessment is closely correlated with risk assessment through the average fault probability of the equipment. The current operation risk of the equipment can be obtained through a state assessment result. Therefore, operators can aim at and well do the operation and maintenance of the equipment according to the calculation results of the risk values, secondary professional operation management can be optimized and objective bases can be provided for equipment type selection and whether the equipment is required to be replaced or not.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the technical field that the electric power secondary device is safeguarded, relate in particular to electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment, and electric power secondary device risk evaluating system.
Background technology
Along with development of electric power industry, the operation maintenance management of electric power secondary device is become more and more important.The secondary device risk assessment is a risk of taking all factors into consideration aspects such as device security, economy and social influence, confirms the secondary device degree of risk, for the decision-making of production management work such as equipment operation, maintenance, maintenance, test, technological transformation provides foundation.
In the definition of engineering equipment management domain widespread usage ieee standard 100-1992, be about to risk and be defined as ", adopting the probability and the expression-form of product as a result usually " the probability (being fault) of not expecting to take place the result and the tolerance of seriousness to risk.The risky coordinate diagram method of the common method of power system device risk assessment, DSMC, failure model and effect analysis, ETA etc.According to by evaluation system situation and risk control target, can adopt the different techniques method.
Current, defective, obstacle and risk management work that secondary device exists only rest on the surface analysis to incident, and these analyses be qualitative with subjectivity be main.The order of severity that secondary device has which risk, a risk has much, how to assess, how to compare, and how to let and carry out operation maintenance management according to assessment result, all decides according to maintainer's subjective judgement mostly.Therefore, can influence the effective decision-making that the secondary device risk is controlled in advance, make the electric power secondary device not obtain risk control maintenance timely or early warning, even can take place because the improper possibility that causes the accident of risk control measure.
Summary of the invention
The technical matters that the present invention will solve is to provide a kind of electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment that can carry out comprehensive computing assessment to the operation risk value of secondary device, so that can carry out operation maintenance or early warning to the electric power secondary device in time according to the operation result of value-at-risk.
A kind of electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment comprises step:
Preestablish the weight proportion of each item maintenance state parameter of secondary device, set up the computation model of secondary device maintenance state value the maintenance state value of said secondary device; Preestablish the weight proportion of each item breakdown loss parameter of secondary device, set up the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; And,, set up secondary device probability of malfunction curve according to the probability of malfunction that said secondary device is added up when a plurality of preset maintenance state value;
Obtain the real-time detected value of each item maintenance state parameter of said secondary device,, calculate the maintenance state value of said secondary device according to the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value;
According to the result of calculation of said maintenance state value, search the probability of malfunction of corresponding said maintenance state value in the said secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Obtain the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter of said secondary device,, calculate the breakdown loss value of said secondary device according to the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value;
According to said probability of malfunction and said breakdown loss value, calculate the value-at-risk of said secondary device according to following formula:
R(t)＝LE(t)×P(t)
In the formula: R (t) is a value-at-risk, and LE (t) is the breakdown loss value, and P (t) is a probability of malfunction.
Compared with prior art; Electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment of the present invention is through set up the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value in advance; Can be according to each item maintenance state parameter of said electric power secondary device; Calculate the maintenance state value of secondary device,, the maintenance state value is converted into the probability of malfunction of secondary device through searching said secondary device probability of malfunction curve; Again through the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value, calculate the corresponding possible loss of secondary device under various faults, with the product of breakdown loss value and probability of malfunction value-at-risk as secondary device.Secondary device state evaluation and risk assessment are passed through equipment mean failure rate probability tight association; Can obtain the current operation risk of equipment through the state evaluation result; Make the operations staff carry out equipment operation, service work targetedly; Optimize the operational management of secondary specialty, for lectotype selection, confirm that equipment should not changed objective basis is provided.Can carry out operation maintenance or early warning to the electric power secondary device in time according to the operation result of value-at-risk
The technical matters that the present invention will solve also is to provide a kind of electric power secondary device risk evaluating system that can carry out comprehensive computing assessment to the operation risk value of secondary device, so that can carry out operation maintenance or early warning to the electric power secondary device in time according to the operation result of value-at-risk.
A kind of electric power secondary device risk evaluating system comprises:
The Maintenance Model administration module is used to preestablish the weight proportion of each item maintenance state parameter of secondary device to the maintenance state value of said secondary device, sets up the computation model of secondary device maintenance state value;
The loss model administration module is used to preestablish the weight proportion of each item breakdown loss parameter of secondary device to the breakdown loss value of said secondary device, sets up the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value;
Probability of malfunction curve module is used for the probability of malfunction added up when a plurality of preset maintenance state value according to said secondary device, sets up secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Maintenance state value computing module is used to obtain the real-time detected value of each item maintenance state parameter of said secondary device, according to the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, calculates the maintenance state value of said secondary device;
The probability of malfunction computing module is used for the result of calculation according to said maintenance state value, searches the probability of malfunction of corresponding said maintenance state value in the said secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Loss value computing module is used to obtain the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter of said secondary device, according to the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value, calculates said secondary device breakdown loss value;
The risk calculus module is used for calculating the value-at-risk of said secondary device according to following formula according to said probability of malfunction and said breakdown loss value:
R(t)＝LE(t)×P(t)
In the formula: R (t) is a value-at-risk, and LE (t) is the breakdown loss value, and P (t) is a probability of malfunction.
Compared with prior art, in the electric power secondary device risk evaluating system of the present invention, said Maintenance Model administration module is set up the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value in advance; Said maintenance state value computing module can calculate the maintenance state value of secondary device according to each item maintenance state parameter of said electric power secondary device; Said probability of malfunction computing module is converted into the maintenance state value probability of malfunction of secondary device through searching said secondary device probability of malfunction curve; Said probability of malfunction computing module is the computation model through said secondary device breakdown loss value again; Calculate the corresponding possible loss of secondary device under various faults, said risk calculus module is with the product of breakdown loss value and the probability of malfunction value-at-risk as secondary device.Thereby secondary device state evaluation and risk assessment are passed through equipment mean failure rate probability tight association; Can obtain the current operation risk of equipment through the state evaluation result; Make the operations staff carry out equipment operation, service work targetedly; Optimize the operational management of secondary specialty, for lectotype selection, confirm that equipment should not changed objective basis is provided.Can carry out operation maintenance or early warning to the electric power secondary device in time according to the operation result of value-at-risk
Electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment of the present invention and electric power secondary device risk evaluating system; Set up complete secondary device methods of risk assessment and the system of a cover; Secondary device risk evaluation model based on state evaluation has been proposed; Equipment state evaluation result and probability of malfunction are carried out related, probability that takes place in conjunction with fault and the loss that possibly cause equipment are confirmed the value-at-risk that equipment is current; To the present situation that the secondary device probability of malfunction is difficult to add up, the present invention give chapter and verse existing equipment state evaluation result and fault statistics data, related match secondary device probability of malfunction curve is for the prediction of value-at-risk provides foundation; The present invention also provides the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value; The both unified common feature that extracts each secondary specialty risk of this model; Fully described the otherness characteristic of different professional secondary device risks again, embodied the main influencing factors of secondary device operation risk, for secondary device is carried out risk assessment and risk management comprehensively; With maintenance, early warning, decision-making foundation and technical support are provided; Too rely on expert's subjective experience to the significance level of each item possible loss; The present invention proposes the computation model based on the secondary device breakdown loss value of analytical hierarchy process; Wherein the weight proportion of the said breakdown loss parameter of each item had both fully drawn maintainer's practical experience; Effectively avoid the simple subjective selection of weight coefficient again, guaranteed the objectivity of secondary device risk quantification assessment.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of steps of electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the synoptic diagram of the computation model of the secondary device maintenance state value set up among the present invention;
Fig. 3 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the relay protection secondary circuit set up among the present invention;
Fig. 4 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the protective relaying device set up among the present invention;
Fig. 5 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the province port electric energy remote measurement metering charge system set up among the present invention;
Fig. 6 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the WAMS set up among the present invention;
Fig. 7 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the electric energy metering system set up among the present invention;
Fig. 8 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the dispatching automation main station system set up among the present invention;
Fig. 9 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the power distribution automation main station system set up among the present invention;
Figure 10 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the electric substation automation system set up among the present invention;
Figure 11 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the telecommunication transmission equipment set up among the present invention;
Figure 12 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the direct current cabinet set up among the present invention;
Figure 13 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the battery pack set up among the present invention;
Figure 14 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the maintenance state value of the automatic safety device set up among the present invention;
Figure 15 is the peace set up among the present invention synoptic diagram from the computation model of the maintenance state value of secondary circuit;
Figure 16 is the synoptic diagram of the computation model of the secondary device breakdown loss value set up among the present invention;
Figure 17 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the relay protection device set up among the present invention;
Figure 18 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the REMS that sets up among the present invention;
Figure 19 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the WAMS that sets up among the present invention;
Figure 20 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the electric energy metering system set up among the present invention;
Figure 21 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the dispatching automation main station system set up among the present invention;
Figure 22 is the synoptic diagram of the computation model of the breakdown loss value of joining system of robotization main website set up among the present invention;
Figure 23 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the electric substation automation system set up among the present invention;
Figure 24 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the telecommunication transmission equipment set up among the present invention;
Figure 25 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the DC power supply device set up among the present invention;
Figure 26 is the synoptic diagram of computation model of the breakdown loss value of the automatic safety device set up among the present invention;
Figure 27 is the synoptic diagram of the probability of malfunction curve of the secondary device set up among the present invention;
Figure 28 is the structural representation of electric power secondary device risk evaluating system of the present invention;
Figure 29 is the structural representation of a kind of preferred implementation of electric power secondary device risk evaluating system of the present invention.
Embodiment
See also Fig. 1, Fig. 1 is the flow chart of steps of secondary device methods of risk assessment of the present invention.
Said secondary device methods of risk assessment may further comprise the steps:
S101 preestablishes the weight proportion of each item maintenance state parameter of secondary device to the maintenance state value of said secondary device, sets up the computation model of secondary device maintenance state value;
In this embodiment, the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value adopts tree structure, comprises destination layer, rule layer, sub-rule layer and indicator layer; Wherein, said destination layer comprises the maintenance state value of said secondary device; Said rule layer comprises the some interpretational criterias corresponding with the maintenance state of said secondary device; Said sub-rule layer comprises the plurality of sub criterion corresponding with each said interpretational criteria; Said indicator layer comprises the some maintenance state parameters corresponding with each said sub-criterion; And each item interpretational criteria of each said secondary device correspondence has the first preset state weight proportion for the maintenance state value of said secondary device; The sub-criterion of each item that each said interpretational criteria is corresponding has the second preset state weight proportion to said interpretational criteria; The corresponding each item maintenance state parameter of each said sub-criterion has preset third state weight proportion to said sub-criterion.
In the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, said destination layer is the general objective of dealing with problems and being pursued, and is all kinds of one-level evaluation objects in guide rule, and the secondary evaluation object that comprised of one-level evaluation object.One-level evaluation object and secondary evaluation object in the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value are as shown in Figure 2.
Wherein, said one-level evaluation object is for directly carrying out the object that maintenance state is estimated.Comprise secondary devices such as relay protection device, automation equipment (province port electric energy remote measurement metering charge system, WAMS, electric energy metering system, dispatching automation main station system, power distribution automation main station system and electric substation automation system), communication facilities, DC power supply device, automatic safety device.
Said secondary evaluation object is some secondary evaluation objects for all kinds of one-level evaluation objects are perhaps formed Module Division according to functional module.For example: the secondary evaluation object of relay protection device comprises relay equipment and secondary circuit; The secondary evaluation object of communication facilities comprises telecommunication transmission system, communications optical cable and data network (this guide rule wouldn't be assessed optical cable and network); The secondary evaluation object of DC power supply device comprises direct current cabinet and battery pack; The secondary evaluation object of automatic safety device comprises that peace is from device and secondary circuit; Automation equipment is not divided the secondary evaluation object.
Said rule layer is for weighing the intermediate link that some factor or measure make it.In guide rule five state parameter classifications of all kinds of one-level evaluation objects and secondary evaluation object.Comprise equipment put into operation preceding situation, device history operation conditions, overhaul of the equipments situation, equipment real time execution situation, other factors.
Said sub-rule layer is the further refinement to rule layer.In guide rule refinement clauses and subclauses to five state parameter classifications, corresponding different secondary device and different.
Said indicator layer is the concrete analysis factor or the measure of decision problem.Each item state parameter for participating in marking in guide rule.
Illustrate the computation model of several kinds of secondary device maintenance state values below.
For example relay protection device is estimated the parameter of secondary circuit and protection (or automatically) device respectively according to maintenance state evaluation classification.
Then the computation model of the maintenance state value of relay protection secondary circuit is as shown in Figure 3, and its rule layer comprises equipment put into operation preceding situation, device history operation conditions, overhaul of the equipments situation, equipment real time execution situation, other factors.Wherein, the drawing designing quality of the corresponding said sub-rule layer of situation, device fabrication quality, construction and installation quality and the examination quality of going into operation before equipment puts into operation.Wherein each said sub-criterion is distinguished the different maintenance state parameter of corresponding said indicator layer, and for example the statistics number of mistakes and omissions appears in drawing designing quality correspondence; The score value of device fabrication quality corresponding intrument quality; The score value of corresponding respectively sign standard sharpness of construction and installation quality and wiring quality; Go into operation and check and accept the corresponding receiving gauge plasticity of quality score value.Other criterions in the computation model of the maintenance state value of said relay protection secondary circuit are corresponding plurality of sub criterion respectively, and the corresponding some maintenance state parameters of each sub-criterion are as shown in Figure 3, repeat no more at this.
The computation model of the maintenance state value of protective relaying device is as shown in Figure 4.
And for example automation equipment is classified according to the maintenance state evaluation; Automation equipment being divided into one-level evaluation objects such as province's port electric energy remote measurement metering charge system, WAMS, electric energy metering system, dispatching automation main station system, power distribution automation main station system, electric substation automation system estimates; Set up the computation model of the maintenance state value of automation equipment, shown in accompanying drawing 5 to 10.
The computation model of the maintenance state value of telecommunication transmission equipment and for example.Because the complicacy of communication network is primarily aimed at telecommunication transmission equipment evaluation to communication secondary device state evaluation at present, put aside for the evaluation of main equipments such as optical cable, data network.The computation model of the maintenance state value of telecommunication transmission equipment is shown in accompanying drawing 11.
The computation model of the maintenance state value of DC power supply device and for example.According to the actual conditions of Guangdong Power Grid DC power supply device, the evaluation unit of direct supply is made as the station.Equipment is divided into secondary evaluation objects such as direct current cabinet and battery pack, sets up the computation model that state parameter constitutes the maintenance state value of direct current cabinet and battery pack respectively according to disaggregated model, like Figure 12, shown in 13.
The computation model of the maintenance state value of automatic safety device and for example.The peace of regulation comprises from device: safety stabilization control system and device, low frequency automatic load-reducing device, low pressure automatic load-reducing device, circuit overcurrent Automatic Load (or cutter) device, circuit three are jumped couplet cutting load (or cutter) device, disconnection device, secionalizing system equipment, hydraulic turbine low frequency automatic starting gear, automatic throw-in equipment of emergency power supply etc. guarantee the aut.eq. that power system safety and stability moves to unit high (low) frequently.Automatic safety device is divided into peace carries out state parameter classification, set up automatic safety device respectively and pacify computation model from the maintenance state value of secondary circuit like accompanying drawing 14, shown in 15 from device and secondary circuit two parts secondary evaluation object.
Electric power system design maintainer can set each item maintenance state parameter of suitable electric power secondary device according to different demands, sets up the computation model of corresponding secondary device maintenance state value.So that each item maintenance state to the electric power secondary device obtains comprehensive and reasonable assessment data basis.
After the computation model of setting up said secondary device maintenance state value, respectively to each item maintenance state parameter setting parameter weight proportion in the indicator layer of the computation model of each said secondary device maintenance state value.Said parameter weight proportion is the weight of said maintenance state parameter to the influence of the maintenance state of said electric power secondary device.Particularly; Set each item interpretational criteria in the said rule layer respectively with respect to the weight proportion of said electric power secondary device to be detected; The sub-criterion of each item of said sub-rule layer is with respect to the weight proportion of the said interpretational criteria of correspondence, and each item maintenance state parameter in the said indicator layer is with respect to the weight proportion of the said sub-criterion of correspondence.On the basis of the detection score value that obtains the said maintenance state parameter of each item, can calculate the maintenance state value of said electric power secondary device according to above-mentioned weight proportion.Electric Design maintainer can specifically set the state weight proportion of parameter at all levels according to the influence of the parameter at all levels in the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value to the maintenance state of said electric power secondary device.
S102 preestablishes the weight proportion of each item breakdown loss parameter of secondary device to the breakdown loss value of said secondary device, sets up the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value;
In this embodiment, the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value adopts tree structure, comprises destination layer, fault type layer, loss type layer and loss parameter layer; Wherein, said device target layer comprises the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Said fault type layer comprises the some kind fault types corresponding with the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Said loss type layer comprises the some loss types corresponding with each said fault type; Said loss parameter layer comprises the some breakdown loss parameters corresponding with each said loss type; And the various fault types of each said secondary device correspondence have the first preset loss weight proportion for the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Each item loss type that each said fault type is corresponding has the second preset loss weight proportion to said fault type; The corresponding each item breakdown loss parameter of each said loss type has the 3rd preset loss weight proportion to said loss type.Shown in figure 16.
Illustrate the computation model of several frequently seen secondary device breakdown loss value below in conjunction with accompanying drawing.
The computation model of the breakdown loss value of relay protection device is shown in figure 17, and its destination layer comprises the plant failure loss value of relay protection device, and secondary circuit failure loss value; Its fault type layer comprises tripping and two kinds of fault types of malfunction; The equipment possible loss assets of the corresponding said loss type layer of said tripping fault type, the corresponding said loss type layer of said malfunction fault type influence user situation; And the electric pressure parameter of the corresponding said loss parameter layer of equipment possible loss assets influences electric pressure parameter and main transformer quantity parameter that user situation is then distinguished corresponding said loss parameter layer.
The computation model of the breakdown loss value of REMS is shown in figure 18; The computation model of the breakdown loss value of WAMS is shown in figure 19; The computation model of the breakdown loss value of electric energy metering system is shown in figure 20; The computation model of the breakdown loss value of dispatching automation main station system is shown in figure 21; The computation model of breakdown loss value of joining system of robotization main website is shown in figure 22; The computation model of the breakdown loss value of electric substation automation system is shown in figure 23; The computation model of the breakdown loss value of telecommunication transmission equipment is shown in figure 24; The computation model of the breakdown loss value of DC power supply device is shown in figure 25; The computation model of the breakdown loss value of automatic safety device is shown in figure 26.
Electric Design maintainer can specifically set the loss weight proportion of parameter at all levels according to the influence of the parameter at all levels in the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value to the breakdown loss value of said electric power secondary device equally.
S103 according to the probability of malfunction that said secondary device is added up when a plurality of preset maintenance state value, sets up secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Adopt the probability of malfunction curve of the point data match secondary device that looses.According to domestic and international widely used main apparatus probability of malfunction experimental formula; In conjunction with history data analysis to actual electric network; Structure current secondary probability of equipment failure and state evaluation result; That is the funtcional relationship between the maintenance state value of said secondary device; And calculate to the residing four kinds of running status grades of secondary device, draw that secondary device is in respectively normally, the probability of malfunction value of equipment when attention, unusual, serious four kinds of states, set up secondary device probability of malfunction curve.The probability of malfunction curve of secondary device is shown in figure 27.
S104 obtains the real-time detected value of each item maintenance state parameter of said secondary device, according to the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, calculates the maintenance state value of said secondary device;
In the present embodiment, then, calculate the maintenance state value of said secondary device according to following formula:
Wherein, n is the quantity of the corresponding interpretational criteria of the maintenance state value of said secondary device; a
iBe the said first state weight proportion; M is the corresponding sub-criterion quantity of each interpretational criteria; a
jBe the said second state weight proportion; L is the quantity of the corresponding maintenance state parameter of the sub-criterion of each item; a
kBe said third state weight proportion; P
kReal-time detected value for said maintenance state parameter; S is the maintenance state value of said secondary device.
S105 according to the result of calculation of said maintenance state value, searches the probability of malfunction of corresponding said maintenance state value in the said secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Search and set up the said secondary device probability of malfunction curve that stores in advance, obtain the probability of malfunction of the result of calculation of corresponding said maintenance state value, represent the probability that possibly break down under the current maintenance state.
S106 obtains the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter of said secondary device, according to the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value, calculates said secondary device breakdown loss value;
In this embodiment, calculate the breakdown loss value of said secondary device according to following formula:
Wherein, n is the corresponding fault type quantity of breakdown loss value of said secondary device, a
iBe the said first loss weight proportion; M is the quantity of the corresponding breakdown loss parameter of each said fault type, a
jBe the said second loss weight proportion, P
jEvaluation of estimate for the various fault types that calculate according to the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter and corresponding said the 3rd loss weight proportion; LE is the breakdown loss value of said secondary device.
S107, according to said probability of malfunction and said breakdown loss value, calculate the value-at-risk of said secondary device according to following formula:
R(t)＝LE(t)×P(t)
In the formula: R (t) is a value-at-risk, and LE (t) is the breakdown loss value, and P (t) is a probability of malfunction.
Compared with prior art; Electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment of the present invention is through set up the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value in advance; Can be according to each item maintenance state parameter of said electric power secondary device; Calculate the maintenance state value of secondary device,, the maintenance state value is converted into the probability of malfunction of secondary device through searching said secondary device probability of malfunction curve; Again through the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value, calculate the corresponding possible loss of secondary device under various faults, with the product of breakdown loss value and probability of malfunction value-at-risk as secondary device.Secondary device state evaluation and risk assessment are passed through equipment mean failure rate probability tight association; Can obtain the current operation risk of equipment through the state evaluation result; Make the operations staff carry out equipment operation, service work targetedly; Optimize the operational management of secondary specialty, for lectotype selection, confirm that equipment should not changed objective basis is provided.
As a kind of preferred implementation; At execution in step S107, calculate after the value-at-risk of said secondary device, can be according to the result of calculation of the value-at-risk of said secondary device; Said secondary device is carried out risk, and carry out attended operation or alarm operation according to the result of said risk rating.
For example; The influence of the risk of secondary device and the extent of injury are distinguished by the said value-at-risk size of calculating; Be divided into 6 risk classes: I level, II level, III level, IV level, V level, VI level, wherein be excessive risk rank for similar secondary device I level, the VI level is the priming the pump rank.A span of the corresponding said value-at-risk of each said risk class.
When the value-at-risk rating result that can set secondary device reaches the IV level, alarm; Reaching III level safeguarding to said secondary device.
As another kind of preferred implementation,, and after the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value, further carry out following steps at the computation model of setting up secondary device maintenance state value:
Detect each item maintenance state parameter and each item breakdown loss parameter of obtaining secondary device in real time; Upgrade each item maintenance state values of parameters in the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, and the value of upgrading the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value.
Through bringing in constant renewal in each item maintenance state values of parameters of said electric power secondary device; And each item breakdown loss values of parameters; Thereby the real-time property of computation model that can keep computation model and the said secondary device breakdown loss value of said secondary device maintenance state value makes at every turn the calculating to the secondary device value-at-risk all conform to the actual state of said electric power secondary device as far as possible.
A situation arises carries out relatedly with secondary device state evaluation result and fault in the present invention, simulates the probability of equipment failure curve, infers the possibility that current device breaks down; Set up the unified breakdown loss computation model of secondary device, confirm the evaluation criterion of each item possible loss according to be correlated with operating provisions and operations staff's experience; Utilize analytical hierarchy process to confirm comparatively objectively each item possible loss weighted value; Obtain the quantification risk evaluation result of equipment at last through possible loss computation model and value-at-risk computation model, for follow-up works such as secondary device risk management provide reference frame.Make the operations staff carry out equipment operation, service work targetedly, optimize the operational management of secondary specialty, for lectotype selection, confirm that equipment should not changed objective basis is provided.
See also Figure 28, Figure 28 is the structural representation of secondary device risk evaluating system of the present invention.
Said secondary device risk assessment system comprises:
Maintenance Model administration module 11 is used to preestablish the weight proportion of each item maintenance state parameter of secondary device to the maintenance state value of said secondary device, sets up the computation model of secondary device maintenance state value;
Loss model administration module 12 is used to preestablish the weight proportion of each item breakdown loss parameter of secondary device to the breakdown loss value of said secondary device, sets up the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value;
Probability of malfunction curve module 13 is used for the probability of malfunction added up when a plurality of preset maintenance state value according to said secondary device, sets up secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Maintenance state value computing module 14 is used to obtain the real-time detected value of each item maintenance state parameter of said secondary device, according to the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, calculates the maintenance state value of said secondary device;
Probability of malfunction computing module 15 is used for the result of calculation according to said maintenance state value, searches the probability of malfunction of corresponding said maintenance state value in the said secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Loss value computing module 16 is used to obtain the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter of said secondary device, according to the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value, calculates said secondary device breakdown loss value;
R(t)＝LE(t)×P(t)
In the formula: R (t) is a value-at-risk, and LE (t) is the breakdown loss value, and P (t) is a probability of malfunction.
As a preferred implementation, said Maintenance Model administration module 11 adopts tree structure to set up the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, comprises destination layer, rule layer, sub-rule layer and indicator layer; Wherein, said destination layer comprises the maintenance state value of said secondary device; Said rule layer comprises the some interpretational criterias corresponding with the maintenance state of said secondary device; Said sub-rule layer comprises the plurality of sub criterion corresponding with each said interpretational criteria; Said indicator layer comprises the some maintenance state parameters corresponding with each said sub-criterion; And each item interpretational criteria of each said secondary device correspondence has the first preset state weight proportion for the maintenance state value of said secondary device; The sub-criterion of each item that each said interpretational criteria is corresponding has the second preset state weight proportion to said interpretational criteria; The corresponding each item maintenance state parameter of each said sub-criterion has preset third state weight proportion to said sub-criterion
In the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, said destination layer is the general objective of dealing with problems and being pursued, and is all kinds of one-level evaluation objects in guide rule, and the secondary evaluation object that comprised of one-level evaluation object.One-level evaluation object and secondary evaluation object in the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value are as shown in Figure 2.
Wherein, said one-level evaluation object is for directly carrying out the object that maintenance state is estimated.Comprise secondary devices such as relay protection device, automation equipment (province port electric energy remote measurement metering charge system, WAMS, electric energy metering system, dispatching automation main station system, power distribution automation main station system and electric substation automation system), communication facilities, DC power supply device, automatic safety device.
Said secondary evaluation object is some secondary evaluation objects for all kinds of one-level evaluation objects are perhaps formed Module Division according to functional module.For example: the secondary evaluation object of relay protection device comprises relay equipment and secondary circuit; The secondary evaluation object of communication facilities comprises telecommunication transmission system, communications optical cable and data network (this guide rule wouldn't be assessed optical cable and network); The secondary evaluation object of DC power supply device comprises direct current cabinet and battery pack; The secondary evaluation object of automatic safety device comprises that peace is from device and secondary circuit; Automation equipment is not divided the secondary evaluation object.
Said rule layer is for weighing the intermediate link that some factor or measure make it.In guide rule five state parameter classifications of all kinds of one-level evaluation objects and secondary evaluation object.Comprise equipment put into operation preceding situation, device history operation conditions, overhaul of the equipments situation, equipment real time execution situation, other factors.
Said sub-rule layer is the further refinement to rule layer.In guide rule refinement clauses and subclauses to five state parameter classifications, corresponding different secondary device and different.
Said indicator layer is the concrete analysis factor or the measure of decision problem.Each item state parameter for participating in marking in guide rule.
Electric power system design maintainer can set each item maintenance state parameter of suitable secondary device according to different demands, sets up the computation model of corresponding secondary device maintenance state value.So that the maintenance state to secondary device obtains comprehensive and reasonable assessment data basis.
Said Maintenance Model administration module 11 is among the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, respectively to each item setup parameter weight proportion among the computation model of each said secondary device maintenance state value at all levels.
Said parameter weight proportion is the weight of said maintenance state parameter to the influence of the maintenance state of said electric power secondary device.On the basis of the detection score value that obtains the said maintenance state parameter of each item, can calculate the maintenance state value of said electric power secondary device according to above-mentioned weight proportion.Electric Design maintainer can specifically set the state weight proportion of parameter at all levels according to the influence of the parameter at all levels in the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value to the maintenance state of said electric power secondary device.
In this embodiment, said loss model administration module 12 adopts tree structure to set up the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value, comprises destination layer, fault type layer, loss type layer and loss parameter layer; Wherein, said device target layer comprises the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Said fault type layer comprises the some kind fault types corresponding with the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Said loss type layer comprises the some loss types corresponding with each said fault type; Said loss parameter layer comprises the some breakdown loss parameters corresponding with each said loss type; And the various fault types of each said secondary device correspondence have the first preset loss weight proportion for the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Each item loss type that each said fault type is corresponding has the second preset loss weight proportion to said fault type; The corresponding each item breakdown loss parameter of each said loss type has the 3rd preset loss weight proportion to said loss type.Shown in figure 16.
Electric Design maintainer can specifically set the loss weight proportion of parameter at all levels according to the influence of the parameter at all levels in the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value to the breakdown loss value of said electric power secondary device equally.
Said probability of malfunction curve module 13 adopts the probability of malfunction curve of the point data match secondary device that looses.According to domestic and international widely used main apparatus probability of malfunction experimental formula; In conjunction with history data analysis to actual electric network; Structure current secondary probability of equipment failure and state evaluation result; That is the funtcional relationship between the maintenance state value of said secondary device; And calculate to the residing four kinds of running status grades of secondary device, draw that secondary device is in respectively normally, the probability of malfunction value of equipment when attention, unusual, serious four kinds of states, set up secondary device probability of malfunction curve.The probability of malfunction curve of secondary device is shown in figure 27.
Said maintenance state value computing module 14 calculates the maintenance state value of said secondary device according to following formula:
Wherein, n is the quantity of the corresponding interpretational criteria of the maintenance state value of said secondary device; a
iBe the said first state weight proportion; M is the corresponding sub-criterion quantity of each interpretational criteria; a
jBe the said second state weight proportion; L is the quantity of the corresponding maintenance state parameter of the sub-criterion of each item; a
kBe said third state weight proportion; P
kReal-time detected value for said maintenance state parameter; S is the maintenance state value of said secondary device.
Said probability of malfunction computing module 15 is searched and is set up the said secondary device probability of malfunction curve that stores in advance, obtains the probability of malfunction of the result of calculation of corresponding said maintenance state value, representes the probability that possibly break down under the current maintenance state.
Said loss value computing module 16 calculates the breakdown loss value of said secondary device according to following formula:
Wherein, n is the corresponding fault type quantity of breakdown loss value of said secondary device, a
iBe the said first loss weight proportion; M is the quantity of the corresponding breakdown loss parameter of each said fault type, a
jBe the said second loss weight proportion, P
jEvaluation of estimate for the various fault types that calculate according to the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter and corresponding said the 3rd loss weight proportion; LE is the breakdown loss value of said secondary device.
Said risk calculus module 17 is calculated the value-at-risk of said secondary device according to said probability of malfunction and said breakdown loss value according to following formula:
R(t)＝LE(t)×P(t)
In the formula: R (t) is a value-at-risk, and LE (t) is the breakdown loss value, and P (t) is a probability of malfunction.
Compared with prior art, in the electric power secondary device risk evaluating system of the present invention, said Maintenance Model administration module is set up the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value in advance; Said maintenance state value computing module can calculate the maintenance state value of secondary device according to each item maintenance state parameter of said electric power secondary device; Said probability of malfunction computing module is converted into the maintenance state value probability of malfunction of secondary device through searching said secondary device probability of malfunction curve; Said probability of malfunction computing module is the computation model through said secondary device breakdown loss value again; Calculate the corresponding possible loss of secondary device under various faults, said risk calculus module is with the product of breakdown loss value and the probability of malfunction value-at-risk as secondary device.Thereby secondary device state evaluation and risk assessment are passed through equipment mean failure rate probability tight association; Can obtain the current operation risk of equipment through the state evaluation result; Make the operations staff carry out equipment operation, service work targetedly; Optimize the operational management of secondary specialty, for lectotype selection, confirm that equipment should not changed objective basis is provided.
See also Figure 29, Figure 29 is the structural representation of a kind of preferred implementation of secondary device risk evaluating system of the present invention.
In this embodiment; Said electric power secondary device risk evaluating system further comprises: risk rating maintenance module 18; Be used for result of calculation according to said risk calculus module; Said secondary device is carried out risk rating, and carry out attended operation or alarm operation according to the result of said risk rating.
For example; Said risk rating maintenance module 18 can be distinguished the influence and the extent of injury of the risk of secondary device by the said value-at-risk size of calculating; Be divided into 6 risk classes: I level, II level, III level, IV level, V level, VI level; Wherein be excessive risk rank for similar secondary device I level, the VI level is the priming the pump rank.A span of the corresponding said value-at-risk of each said risk class.
When the value-at-risk rating result that said risk rating maintenance module 18 can be set secondary device reaches the IV level, alarm; Reaching III level safeguarding to said secondary device.
Further; Said electric power secondary device risk evaluating system can also comprise update module 19; Said update module 19 is used for detecting in real time each item maintenance state parameter and each item breakdown loss parameter of obtaining secondary device; Upgrade each item maintenance state values of parameters in the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, and the value of upgrading the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value.
Bring in constant renewal in each item maintenance state values of parameters of said electric power secondary device through said update module 19; And each item breakdown loss values of parameters; Thereby the real-time property of computation model that can keep computation model and the said secondary device breakdown loss value of said secondary device maintenance state value makes at every turn the calculating to the secondary device value-at-risk all conform to the actual state of said electric power secondary device as far as possible.
A situation arises carries out relatedly with secondary device state evaluation result and fault in the present invention, simulates the probability of equipment failure curve, infers the possibility that current device breaks down; Set up the unified breakdown loss computation model of secondary device, confirm the evaluation criterion of each item possible loss according to be correlated with operating provisions and operations staff's experience; Utilize analytical hierarchy process to confirm comparatively objectively each item possible loss weighted value; Obtain the quantification risk evaluation result of equipment at last through possible loss computation model and value-at-risk computation model, for follow-up works such as secondary device risk management provide reference frame.Make the operations staff carry out equipment operation, service work targetedly, optimize the operational management of secondary specialty, for lectotype selection, confirm that equipment should not changed objective basis is provided.
Above-described embodiment of the present invention does not constitute the qualification to protection domain of the present invention.Any modification of within spirit of the present invention and principle, being done, be equal to replacement and improvement etc., all should be included within the claim protection domain of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. an electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment is characterized in that, comprises step:
Preestablish the weight proportion of each item maintenance state parameter of secondary device, set up the computation model of secondary device maintenance state value the maintenance state value of said secondary device; Preestablish the weight proportion of each item breakdown loss parameter of secondary device, set up the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; And,, set up secondary device probability of malfunction curve according to the probability of malfunction that said secondary device is added up when a plurality of preset maintenance state value;
Obtain the real-time detected value of each item maintenance state parameter of said secondary device,, calculate the maintenance state value of said secondary device according to the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value;
According to the result of calculation of said maintenance state value, search the probability of malfunction of corresponding said maintenance state value in the said secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Obtain the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter of said secondary device,, calculate said secondary device breakdown loss value according to the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value;
According to said probability of malfunction and said breakdown loss value, calculate the value-at-risk of said secondary device according to following formula:
R(t)＝LE(t)×P(t)
In the formula: R (t) is a value-at-risk, and LE (t) is the breakdown loss value, and P (t) is a probability of malfunction.
2. electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value adopts tree structure, comprises destination layer, rule layer, sub-rule layer and indicator layer;
Wherein, said destination layer comprises the maintenance state value of said secondary device; Said rule layer comprises the some interpretational criterias corresponding with the maintenance state of said secondary device; Said sub-rule layer comprises the plurality of sub criterion corresponding with each said interpretational criteria; Said indicator layer comprises the some maintenance state parameters corresponding with each said sub-criterion; And each item interpretational criteria of each said secondary device correspondence has the first preset state weight proportion for the maintenance state value of said secondary device; The sub-criterion of each item that each said interpretational criteria is corresponding has the second preset state weight proportion to said interpretational criteria; The corresponding each item maintenance state parameter of each said sub-criterion has preset third state weight proportion to said sub-criterion;
Then, calculate the maintenance state value of said secondary device according to following formula:
Wherein, n is the quantity of the corresponding interpretational criteria of the maintenance state value of said secondary device; a
iBe the said first state weight proportion; M is the corresponding sub-criterion quantity of each interpretational criteria; a
jBe the said second state weight proportion; L is the quantity of the corresponding maintenance state parameter of the sub-criterion of each item; a
kBe said third state weight proportion; P
kReal-time detected value for said maintenance state parameter; S is the maintenance state value of said secondary device.
3. electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value adopts tree structure, comprises destination layer, fault type layer, loss type layer and loss parameter layer;
Wherein, said device target layer comprises the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Said fault type layer comprises the some kind fault types corresponding with the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Said loss type layer comprises the some loss types corresponding with each said fault type; Said loss parameter layer comprises the some breakdown loss parameters corresponding with each said loss type; And the various fault types of each said secondary device correspondence have the first preset loss weight proportion for the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Each item loss type that each said fault type is corresponding has the second preset loss weight proportion to said fault type; The corresponding each item breakdown loss parameter of each said loss type has the 3rd preset loss weight proportion to said loss type;
Then, calculate the breakdown loss value of said secondary device according to following formula:
Wherein, n is the corresponding fault type quantity of breakdown loss value of said secondary device, a
iBe the said first loss weight proportion; M is the quantity of the corresponding breakdown loss parameter of each said fault type, a
jBe the said second loss weight proportion, P
jEvaluation of estimate for the various fault types that calculate according to the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter and corresponding said the 3rd loss weight proportion; LE is the breakdown loss value of said secondary device.
4. like any described electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment in the claim 1 to 3, it is characterized in that, after the value-at-risk of calculating said secondary device, further carry out following steps:
According to the result of calculation of the value-at-risk of said secondary device, said secondary device is carried out risk rating, and carry out attended operation or alarm operation according to the result of said risk rating.
5. electric power secondary device methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 4 is characterized in that, at the computation model of setting up secondary device maintenance state value, and after the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value, further carries out following steps:
Detect each item maintenance state parameter and each item breakdown loss parameter of obtaining secondary device in real time; Upgrade each item maintenance state values of parameters in the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, and the value of upgrading the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value.
6. electric power secondary device risk evaluating system is characterized in that comprising:
The Maintenance Model administration module is used to preestablish the weight proportion of each item maintenance state parameter of secondary device to the maintenance state value of said secondary device, sets up the computation model of secondary device maintenance state value;
The loss model administration module is used to preestablish the weight proportion of each item breakdown loss parameter of secondary device to the breakdown loss value of said secondary device, sets up the computation model of secondary device breakdown loss value;
Probability of malfunction curve module is used for the probability of malfunction added up when a plurality of preset maintenance state value according to said secondary device, sets up secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Maintenance state value computing module is used to obtain the real-time detected value of each item maintenance state parameter of said secondary device, according to the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, calculates the maintenance state value of said secondary device;
The probability of malfunction computing module is used for the result of calculation according to said maintenance state value, searches the probability of malfunction of corresponding said maintenance state value in the said secondary device probability of malfunction curve;
Loss value computing module is used to obtain the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter of said secondary device, according to the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value, calculates said secondary device breakdown loss value;
The risk calculus module is used for calculating the value-at-risk of said secondary device according to following formula according to said probability of malfunction and said breakdown loss value:
R(t)＝LE(t)×P(t)
In the formula: R (t) is a value-at-risk, and LE (t) is the breakdown loss value, and P (t) is a probability of malfunction.
7. electric power secondary device risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 6; It is characterized in that; Said Maintenance Model administration module adopts tree structure to set up the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, comprises destination layer, rule layer, sub-rule layer and indicator layer;
Wherein, said destination layer comprises the maintenance state value of said secondary device; Said rule layer comprises the some interpretational criterias corresponding with the maintenance state of said secondary device; Said sub-rule layer comprises the plurality of sub criterion corresponding with each said interpretational criteria; Said indicator layer comprises the some maintenance state parameters corresponding with each said sub-criterion; And each item interpretational criteria of each said secondary device correspondence has the first preset state weight proportion for the maintenance state value of said secondary device; The sub-criterion of each item that each said interpretational criteria is corresponding has the second preset state weight proportion to said interpretational criteria; The corresponding each item maintenance state parameter of each said sub-criterion has preset third state weight proportion to said sub-criterion;
Then, said maintenance state value computing module calculates the maintenance state value of said secondary device according to following formula:
Wherein, n is the quantity of the corresponding interpretational criteria of the maintenance state value of said secondary device; a
iBe the said first state weight proportion; M is the corresponding sub-criterion quantity of each interpretational criteria; a
jBe the said second state weight proportion; L is the quantity of the corresponding maintenance state parameter of the sub-criterion of each item; a
kBe said third state weight proportion; P
kReal-time detected value for said maintenance state parameter; S is the maintenance state value of said secondary device.
8. electric power secondary device risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 7; It is characterized in that; Said loss model administration module adopts tree structure to set up the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value, comprises destination layer, fault type layer, loss type layer and loss parameter layer;
Wherein, said device target layer comprises the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Said fault type layer comprises the some kind fault types corresponding with the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Said loss type layer comprises the some loss types corresponding with each said fault type; Said loss parameter layer comprises the some breakdown loss parameters corresponding with each said loss type; And the various fault types of each said secondary device correspondence have the first preset loss weight proportion for the breakdown loss value of said secondary device; Each item loss type that each said fault type is corresponding has the second preset loss weight proportion to said fault type; The corresponding each item breakdown loss parameter of each said loss type has the 3rd preset loss weight proportion to said loss type;
Then, said loss value computing module calculates the breakdown loss value of said secondary device according to following formula:
Wherein, n is the corresponding fault type quantity of breakdown loss value of said secondary device, a
iBe the said first loss weight proportion; M is the quantity of the corresponding breakdown loss parameter of each said fault type, a
jBe the said second loss weight proportion, P
jEvaluation of estimate for the various fault types that calculate according to the real-time detected value of each item breakdown loss parameter and corresponding said the 3rd loss weight proportion; LE is the breakdown loss value of said secondary device.
9. like any described electric power secondary device risk evaluating system in the claim 6 to 8, it is characterized in that said electric power secondary device risk evaluating system further comprises:
The risk rating maintenance module is used for the result of calculation according to said risk calculus module, and said secondary device is carried out risk rating, and carries out attended operation or alarm operation according to the result of said risk rating.
10. electric power secondary device risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 9; It is characterized in that; Said electric power secondary device risk evaluating system further comprises update module; Said update module is used for detecting in real time each item maintenance state parameter and each item breakdown loss parameter of obtaining secondary device, upgrades each item maintenance state values of parameters in the computation model of said secondary device maintenance state value, and the value of upgrading the computation model of said secondary device breakdown loss value.
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Application publication date: 20120118 |