CN105279580B - Predict that the method and system of the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for cable - Google Patents
Predict that the method and system of the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for cable Download PDFInfo
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- CN105279580B CN105279580B CN201510780476.6A CN201510780476A CN105279580B CN 105279580 B CN105279580 B CN 105279580B CN 201510780476 A CN201510780476 A CN 201510780476A CN 105279580 B CN105279580 B CN 105279580B
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Abstract
The present invention relates to the method and systems that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for a kind of prediction cable, this method comprises: obtaining the other municipal works initial data of setting group at least nearest two unit time and determining the weight of every group of original project data of municipal administration to be fitted to obtain municipal works amount curve according to municipal works initial data；The other anti-external force of setting group at least nearest two unit time is obtained to destroy measure initial data and determine that every group of anti-external force destroys the weight of measure and destroys measure curve to be fitted to obtain anti-external force according to anti-external force destruction measure initial data；Measure curve, which is destroyed, according to municipal works amount curve and anti-external force obtains cable external force damage curve；The current failure number of cable current one time generation external force destructive malfunction is obtained, and predicts that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable according to current failure number and cable external force damage curve.This method intuitively predicts that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power cable faults to predict field, and external force destructive malfunction occurs more particularly to a kind of prediction cable
Number method and system.
Background technique
Research about cable external force destructive malfunction is largely divided into two parts: the reason of cable external force destructive malfunction occurs
The research inquired into and anti-external force how to be taken to destroy measure.
(1) it is directed to the research of cable external force destructive malfunction occurrence cause
The reason of cable external force is destroyed research is segmented into 3 classes, and the first kind is to influence cable external force for human factor to break
Research in terms of bad failure, predominantly power grid operation management personnel tour are not in place to be caused to find defect, Jin Eryin in time
The cable external force destructive malfunction risen；Second class is that non-construction personnel realizes weakness to cable protection, and especially construction personnel is applying
Working hour ignores the protection etc. of cable；Third class is the research for the unreasonable aspect of work progress method；Predominantly for construction
Research in terms of environmental problem, such as the construction unknown cable distribution figure given such as power department in path do not timely update and cause
Half-hearted inspection information blindly goes into operation before cable digging injury, construction and construction unit go into operation.
(2) it is directed to the research in terms of taking anti-external force destruction measure
Mainly there are reinforcement power grid operation management personnel to make an inspection tour dynamics, increase electricity currently, anti-external force destroys taken measure
The propaganda strength of power cable importance reinforces construction site cable and effectively indicate, reinforces and units concerned's communication, timely update electricity
Cable GIS figure etc..
And the research of the number about prediction cable generation external force destructive malfunction is seldom, existing research is also difficult to intuitive
Predict that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for cable.
Summary of the invention
Based on this, it is necessary to the method and system of the number of external force destructive malfunction occur for intuitive prediction cable.
A method of the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable, comprising:
Obtain the other municipal works initial data of setting group at least nearest two unit time and according to municipal works
Initial data determines the weight of every group of municipal works data to be fitted to obtain municipal works amount curve；
It obtains the other anti-external force of the setting group at least nearest two unit time and destroys measure initial data and according to anti-
External force destroys measure initial data and determines that every group of anti-external force destroys the weight of measure to be fitted to obtain anti-external force destruction and arrange
Apply curve；
Measure curve, which is destroyed, according to municipal works amount curve and anti-external force obtains cable external force damage curve；
The current failure number of cable current one time generation external force destructive malfunction is obtained, and according to current failure number
And cable external force damage curve predicts that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable.
In a kind of wherein embodiment, the other municipal works of setting group obtained at least nearest two unit time are former
Beginning data simultaneously determine the weight of every group of municipal works data according to municipal works initial data to be fitted to obtain municipal works
Measure curve the step of include:
The other municipal works initial data of setting group at least two unit time is obtained, and according to the other relationship of each group
Municipal works initial data is classified to obtain the municipal works classification data of corresponding classification；
Municipal works classification data is carried out including and normalized obtains the normalization of the other municipal works of each group
Numerical value；
The growth rate of the other municipal works of each group is calculated according to municipal works initial data to obtain municipal works of all categories
The weight of data；
It is determined according to the ratio of the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group in municipal works of all categories each under the category
The weight of the other municipal works data of group；
It is fitted according to the normalization numerical value of the other municipal works of each group and the weight of the other municipal works data of each group
Obtain municipal works amount curve.
In a kind of wherein embodiment, obtains the other anti-external force destruction of setting group at least nearest two unit time and arrange
It applies initial data and measure initial data is destroyed according to anti-external force and determine that every group of anti-external force destroys the weight of measure initial data
To be fitted to obtain the step of anti-external force destroys measure curve are as follows:
It obtains each other anti-external force of setting group at least nearest two unit time and destroys measure, and according to measure effect pair
Each anti-external force of group destroys measure and scores to obtain the anti-external force of each group and destroy measure initial data；
Anti- external force the classification of measure original number is destroyed according to the other relationship of each group to destroy with the anti-external force for obtaining corresponding classification
Measure classification data；
Measure classification data is destroyed to anti-external force to carry out destroying measure processing comprising processing to obtain the anti-external force of each group
Data；
Measure process data, which is destroyed, according to anti-external force calculates the growth rate of the other anti-external force safeguard measure of each group to obtain respectively
The anti-external force of classification destroys the weight of measure；
The ratio for the growth rate for destroying measure according to the other anti-external force of each group in anti-external force destruction measure of all categories determines
The other anti-external force of each group under the category destroys the weight of measure；
The weight that measure process data destroys measure with the other anti-external force of each group is destroyed according to anti-external force to be fitted to obtain
Anti- external force destroys measure curve.
In a kind of wherein embodiment, the current failure of cable current one time generation external force destructive malfunction is obtained
Number, and predict that external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable according to current failure number and cable external force damage curve
Number the step of include:
Obtain the current failure number of cable current one time generation external force destructive malfunction；
Correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve of current one time is compared with current failure number
To ratio；
Next unit time is predicted with ratio according to the correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve of next unit time
The number of inner cable generation external force destructive malfunction.
In a kind of wherein embodiment, formula used by normalized are as follows:
Wherein, x' indicates that the numerical value after normalization, X indicate to need normalized array, and x indicates to normalize in array X
Numerical value before.
The present invention also provides the systems that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for a kind of prediction cable, comprising:
Municipal works amount curve generation module, for obtaining the other municipal administration of setting group at least nearest two unit time
Engineering initial data simultaneously determines the weight of every group of municipal works data according to municipal works initial data to be fitted to obtain city
Political affairs project amount curve；
Anti- external force destroys measure curve generation module, other for obtaining the setting group at least nearest two unit time
Anti- external force, which destroys measure initial data and destroys measure initial data according to anti-external force, determines that every group of anti-external force destroys measure
Weight destroys measure curve to be fitted to obtain anti-external force；
Cable external force damage curve generation module is obtained for destroying measure curve according to municipal works amount curve and anti-external force
To cable external force damage curve；
The current failure number of external force destructive malfunction, and root occur for obtaining the cable current one time for prediction module
Predict that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable according to current failure number and cable external force damage curve.
In a kind of wherein embodiment, municipal works amount curve generation module includes:
First taxon, for obtaining the other municipal works initial data of the setting group at least two unit time,
And municipal works initial data is classified to obtain the municipal works classification data of corresponding classification according to each group other relationship；
First data processing unit, for carrying out including to municipal works classification data and normalized obtains each group
The normalization numerical value of other municipal works；
First weight calculation unit, for calculating the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group according to municipal works initial data
To obtain the weight of municipal works data of all categories；
Second weight calculation unit, for according to the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group in municipal works of all categories
Ratio determines the weight of the other municipal works data of each group under the category；
Municipal works amount curve generation unit, for other according to the normalization numerical value and each group of the other municipal works of each group
The weight of municipal works data is fitted to obtain municipal works amount curve.
In a kind of wherein embodiment, anti-external force destroys measure curve generation module and includes:
Acquiring unit destroys measure for obtaining each other anti-external force of setting group at least nearest two unit time, and
Measure is destroyed to the anti-external force of each group according to measure effect to score to obtain the anti-external force of each group and destroy measure initial data；
Second taxon, for anti-external force to be destroyed the classification of measure original number to be corresponded to according to the other relationship of each group
The anti-external force of classification destroys measure classification data；
Second data processing unit is carried out comprising processing for destroying measure classification data to anti-external force to obtain each group
Not anti-external force destroys measure process data；
Third weight calculation unit calculates the other anti-external force protection of each group for destroying measure process data according to anti-external force
The growth rate of measure is to obtain the weight that anti-external force of all categories destroys measure；
4th weight calculation unit, for being arranged according to the other anti-external force destruction of each group in anti-external force destruction measure of all categories
The ratio for the growth rate applied determines that the other anti-external force of each group under the category destroys the weight of measure；
Anti- external force destroys measure curve generation unit, other anti-with each group for destroying measure process data according to anti-external force
The weight that external force destroys measure is fitted to obtain anti-external force destruction measure curve.
In a kind of wherein embodiment, prediction module includes:
The current failure of external force destructive malfunction occurs for obtaining the cable current one time for number of stoppages acquiring unit
Number；
Comparing unit, for the correspondence numerical value and current failure in the cable external force damage curve by the current one time
Number is compared to obtain ratio；
Predicting unit is predicted for the correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve according to next unit time with ratio
The number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time inner cable.
In a kind of wherein embodiment, formula used by normalized are as follows:
Wherein, x' indicates that the numerical value after normalization, X indicate to need normalized array, and x indicates to normalize in array X
Numerical value before.
The prediction cable occur external force destructive malfunction number method, by obtain history municipal works data and
Anti- external force destroys measure initial data and obtains cable external force damage curve, and external force destructive malfunction occurs according to the current one time
Number and cable external force damage curve predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time.This method passes through obtained electricity
Cable external force damage curve can intuitively predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time, and data are history number
According to, the efficacy data of measure is destroyed including municipal engineering construction and anti-external force, so as to balanced economy and validity it
Between relationship, the construction for destroying measure to municipal works and anti-external force has directive significance.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart for the method that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for a kind of prediction cable of embodiment；
Fig. 2 is the flow chart of a kind of method for obtaining municipal works amount curve of embodiment；
Fig. 3 is a kind of flow chart for obtaining anti-external force and destroying the method for measure curve of embodiment；
Fig. 4 is a kind of embodiment according to current failure number and cable external force damage curve prediction next unit time
The flow chart of the method for the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for cable；
Fig. 5 is the functional module signal for the system that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for a kind of prediction cable of embodiment
Figure.
Specific embodiment
A method of the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable, as shown in Figure 1, comprising:
S10: the other municipal works initial data of setting group at least nearest two unit time is obtained and according to municipal administration
Engineering initial data determines the weight of every group of municipal works data to be fitted to obtain municipal works amount curve.
In the present embodiment, the unit time is year, and in other embodiments, the unit time can be the moon or season
Degree.
Set the other municipal works of group include: link length (unit is kilometer), path area (unit be square kilometre),
Bridge number (unit is a), bridge number-viaduct (unit is a), drainage pipeline length (unit is kilometer), water supplying pipe road length
Spend (unit is kilometer), greening area coverage (unit is hectare), greening area coverage-built-up areas (unit is hectare), greenery patches
Area (unit is hectare), greenery area-built-up areas (unit is hectare), park greenbelt (unit is hectare) and park face
Product (unit is hectare).
It obtains above-mentioned group of other municipal works initial data at least in two years and is determined according to municipal works initial data
The weight of every group of municipal works data is to obtain municipal works amount curve.
S30: it obtains the other anti-external force of the setting group at least nearest two unit time and destroys measure initial data and root
Measure initial data, which is destroyed, according to anti-external force determines that every group of anti-external force is destroyed the weight of measure and broken to be fitted to obtain anti-external force
Bad measure curve.
Common anti-external force, which destroys measure, mainly setting warning sign, personnel's tour etc., and anti-external force destroys measure original number
According to destroying with anti-external force, the effect of measure is related, and by scoring measure application, it is former that available anti-external force destroys measure
Beginning data, anti-external force destroy measure initial data and includes: the anti-external force of road area destroys measure application effect overall score, and (unit is
Point), the anti-external force in bridge area destroys measure application effect overall score (unit is point), the anti-external force in bridge _ viaduct region is destroyed
Measure application effect overall score (unit be point), the anti-external force in drainage pipeline region destroy measure application effect overall score, and (unit is
Point), the anti-external force in water supply line region destroy measure application effect overall score (unit is point), the greening anti-external force in area coverage region
Destruction measure application effect overall score (unit is point), greening area coverage _ build up the anti-external force destruction measure application effect of region
Fruit overall score (unit is point), the anti-external force in greenery area region destroy measure application effect overall score (unit is point), greenery patches face
It is broken accumulate _ to build up the anti-external force destruction measure application effect overall score of region (unit is point), the anti-external force in park greenbelt region
Bad measure application effect overall score (unit is point) and the anti-external force of park surface area destroy measure application effect overall score (unit
To divide).
The above-mentioned group of other anti-external force obtained at least in two years destroys measure initial data and destroys measure according to anti-external force
Initial data determines that every group of anti-external force destroys the weight point of measure and destroys measure curve to obtain anti-external force.
S50: measure curve is destroyed according to municipal works amount curve and anti-external force and obtains cable external force damage curve.
Cable external force damage curve is obtained specifically, municipal works amount curve is subtracted anti-external force and destroys measure curve.
S70: the current failure number of cable current one time generation external force destructive malfunction is obtained, and according to current failure
Number and cable external force damage curve predict that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable.
In the present embodiment, current failure number is the number for current year external force destructive malfunction occurring, next unit time
The number that external force destructive malfunction occurs for next year cable for the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for inner cable.
The prediction cable occur external force destructive malfunction number method, by obtain history municipal works data and
Anti- external force destroys measure initial data and obtains cable external force damage curve, and external force destructive malfunction occurs according to the current one time
Number and cable external force damage curve predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time.This method passes through obtained electricity
Cable external force damage curve can intuitively predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time, and data are history number
According to, the efficacy data of measure is destroyed including municipal engineering construction and anti-external force, so as to balanced economy and validity it
Between relationship, the construction for destroying measure to municipal works and anti-external force has directive significance.
Specifically, as shown in Fig. 2, step S10 is specifically included:
S11: the other municipal works initial data of setting group at least two unit time is obtained, and other according to each group
Relationship classifies municipal works initial data to obtain the municipal works classification data of corresponding classification.
Municipal works initial data other for the setting group of acquisition, according to the other relationship of each group by municipal works original number
According to classification, for example, the long road of road and path area are all related with road, the long circuit-switched data of road can be classified as with path area data
It is a kind of.In a specific embodiment, above-mentioned 12 groups of municipal works data can be divided into five classes, be respectively as follows:
1st class: link length and path area；2nd class: bridge number and viaduct number；3rd class: drainage pipeline length and water supply line
Length；4th class: greening area coverage, greening area coverage built-up areas, greenery area and greenery area built-up areas；5th class: public
Garden greenery area and park area.
Setting at least nine unit time is obtained in a kind of specific embodiment for the accuracy for improving prediction
Surely other municipal works initial data is organized, for example, in one embodiment, obtaining 2000 to the 2013 city's political and ideological works in certain city
Journey initial data.
S12: municipal works classification data is carried out including and normalized obtains returning for municipal works of all categories
One changes numerical value.
In the data of classification, the case where being inclusion relation there are part group data and other group data, for example, bridge
Beam number contains viaduct number, and greening area coverage includes greening area coverage built-up areas, and greenery area is built comprising greenery area
At area etc., therefore, it is necessary to carry out that initial data is subtracted to the packet of inclusion relation comprising processing to municipal works classification data
Containing data.
Meanwhile the measurement unit of five class data of front is different, is not easy to be compared data and operation, because
This, needs that classification data is normalized.Normalization is a kind of dimensionless processing means, makes the exhausted of physical system numerical value
Certain relative value relationship is become to value.The addition of data from now on for convenience, the method compared here by max min.
Normalized formula is as follows:
Wherein, x' indicates that the numerical value after normalization, X indicate to need normalized array, and x indicates to normalize in array X
Numerical value before.
S13: the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group is calculated to obtain municipal administration of all categories according to municipal works initial data
The weight of project data.
Carry out initial data go to include and normalize after, it is thus necessary to determine that the power that each factor contributes project amount
Weight.Annual annual rate of increase is the important indicator of engineering construction performance, although annual project amount further includes in addition to construction
Daily maintenance, maintenance etc..But for a possibility that cable is destroyed by external force, it is clear that construction amount be it is most important, because
This, can determine weight according to the annual annual growth of the other municipal works of each group.
The growth rate of the other municipal works of each group is calculated according to municipal works initial data respectively.Growth rate and unit time
It is related, in the present embodiment, specially annual growth.City of all categories is calculated again according to the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group
The weight of political affairs project data.Specifically, the weight of a classification municipal works data is the corresponding other municipal works of group under the category
Growth rate average value.For example, the weight of primary sources is being averaged for both link length and path area annual growth
Value.If there are the municipal works of negative growth rate, that is, show that the group engineering is removed, in the municipal works for calculating its generic
When the weight of data, take absolute value.
In order to enable each index weights Data Matching, can set Various types of data weight and be not to be exceeded 50%, once being more than will
It is calculated according to 50%, other kinds data are redistributed by annual growth.
S14: it is determined under the category according to the ratio of the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group in municipal works of all categories
The other municipal works data of each group weight.
By taking primary sources as an example, after the weight for determining primary sources, according to the year according to link length and path area
The ratio between growth rate determines the weight of this two groups of data of link length and path area.
S15: it is carried out according to the weight of the normalization numerical value of the other municipal works of each group and the other municipal works data of each group
Fitting obtains municipal works amount curve.
Specifically, by the normalization data of the other municipal works of each group and its multiplied by weight, then every group of addition can be obtained
Municipal works amount after the normalization of at least two unit time carries out the municipal works amount of different year according to the difference of time
Curve matching, finally obtains a municipal works amount curve, and the municipal works amount curve prediction of the fitting has the municipal administration of next year
Project amount.
In another embodiment, as shown in figure 3, step S30 is specifically included:
S31: it obtains each other anti-external force of setting group at least nearest two unit time and destroys measure, and imitated according to measure
Fruit destroys measure to the anti-external force of each group and scores to obtain the anti-external force of each group and destroy measure initial data.
S32: anti-external force is destroyed to obtain the anti-external force of corresponding classification by the classification of measure original number according to the other relationship of each group
Destruction measure classification data.
Anti- external force other for each group destroys measure initial data, and anti-external force is destroyed measure point according to the other relationship of each group
Class.In a specific embodiment, above-mentioned 11 groups anti-external force can be destroyed measure and is divided into five classes, be respectively as follows:
1st class: the anti-external force of road area destroys measure application effect overall score；2nd class: the anti-external force destruction of bridge and viaduct region is arranged
Apply application effect overall score；3rd class: the anti-external force of draining and water supply line region destroys measure application effect overall score；4th class:
Greening area coverage, greening area coverage built-up areas, greenery area and greenery area build up the anti-external force destruction measure of region and answer
With effect overall score；5th class: park greenbelt and the anti-external force of park surface area destroy measure application effect overall score.
S33: measure classification data is destroyed to anti-external force and carries out destroying measure comprising processing to obtain the anti-external force of each group
Process data.
Go the processing for including identical as step S12's, details are not described herein.
S34: measure process data is destroyed according to anti-external force and calculates the growth rate of the other anti-external force safeguard measure of each group to obtain
The weight of measure is destroyed to anti-external force of all categories.
The growth rate that measure process data calculates the other municipal works of each group is destroyed according to anti-external force respectively.Growth rate and list
The position time is related, in the present embodiment, specially annual growth.Measure process data is destroyed again according to the other anti-external force of each group
Calculate the weight that the anti-external force in city of all categories destroys measure.Specifically, the weight that the anti-external force of a classification destroys measure is under the category
The corresponding other anti-external force of group destroys the average value of the growth rate of measure.If the anti-external force for negative growth rate occur destroys measure processing number
According to when calculating the weight of municipal works data of its generic, take absolute value.
In order to enable each index weights Data Matching, can set Various types of data weight and be not to be exceeded 50%, once being more than will
It is calculated according to 50%, other kinds data are redistributed by annual growth.
S35: the ratio of the growth rate of measure is destroyed according to the other anti-external force of each group in anti-external force destruction measure of all categories
Determine that the other anti-external force of each group under the category destroys instrument weights.
S36: the weight that measure process data destroys measure with the other anti-external force of each group is destroyed according to anti-external force and is fitted
It obtains anti-external force and destroys measure curve.
Specifically, the other anti-external force of each group is destroyed measure process data and multiplied by weight, then every group of addition can be obtained
Anti- external force after the quantization of at least two unit time different years destroys action data, and the anti-external force destruction of different year is arranged
Apply data to carry out curve fitting according to the difference of time, finally obtain an anti-external force and destroy measure curve, the fitting it is anti-outer
Power, which destroys measure curve prediction, has the anti-external force in the city of next year to destroy action data.According to the municipal works amount curve of fitting and intend
The anti-external force closed, which destroys the cable external force damage curve prediction that measure curve obtains, has next year cable external force to destroy data.
In another embodiment, as shown in figure 4, step S70 includes:
S71: the current failure number of cable current one time generation external force destructive malfunction is obtained.
If the unit time is year, current failure number is the number of current year external force destructive malfunction.
S72: the correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve of current one time is compared with current failure number
Relatively obtain ratio.
In a specific embodiment, by the correspondence numerical value and current year external force in the cable external force damage curve of current year
The number of destructive malfunction obtains ratio K.
S73: according to the correspondence numerical value and the next unit of ratio prediction in the cable external force damage curve of next unit time
The number of time inner cable generation external force destructive malfunction.
In a specific embodiment, the correspondence number of next unit time is found in cable external force damage curve
Value, for example, the correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve of next year is multiplied with ratio K, i.e., predictable next year cable
The number of external force destructive malfunction occurs.
The prediction cable occur external force destructive malfunction number method, by obtain history municipal works data and
Anti- external force destroys measure initial data and obtains cable external force damage curve, and external force destructive malfunction occurs according to the current one time
Number and cable external force damage curve predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time.This method passes through obtained electricity
Cable external force damage curve can intuitively predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time, and data are history number
According to, the efficacy data of measure is destroyed including municipal engineering construction and anti-external force, so as to balanced economy and validity it
Between relationship, the construction for destroying measure to municipal works and anti-external force has directive significance.For example, if the number that prediction obtains
It is excessively high, it can suitably increase anti-external force and destroy measure；If number is less, it can temporarily be increased without anti-external force and destroy measure.
Control cable external force destructive malfunction frequency within the scope of acceptable by this method.
The present invention also provides the systems that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for a kind of prediction cable, as shown in Figure 5, comprising:
Municipal works amount curve generation module 10, for obtaining the other city of setting group at least nearest two unit time
Political and ideological work journey initial data simultaneously determines the weight of every group of municipal works data according to municipal works initial data to be fitted to obtain
Municipal works amount curve.
In the present embodiment, the unit time is year, and in other embodiments, the unit time can be the moon or season
Degree.
Set the other municipal works of group include: link length (unit is kilometer), path area (unit be square kilometre),
Bridge number (unit is a), bridge number-viaduct (unit is a), drainage pipeline length (unit is kilometer), water supplying pipe road length
Spend (unit is kilometer), greening area coverage (unit is hectare), greening area coverage-built-up areas (unit is hectare), greenery patches
Area (unit is hectare), greenery area-built-up areas (unit is hectare), park greenbelt (unit is hectare) and park face
Product (unit is hectare).
It obtains above-mentioned group of other municipal works initial data at least in two years and is determined according to municipal works initial data
The weight of every group of municipal works data is to obtain municipal works amount curve.
Anti- external force destroys measure curve generation module 30, for obtaining the setting group at least nearest two unit time
Anti- external force destroy measure initial data and according to anti-external force destroy measure initial data determine every group anti-external force destroy measure
Weight destroy measure curve to be fitted to obtain anti-external force.
Common anti-external force, which destroys measure, mainly setting warning sign, personnel's tour etc., and anti-external force destroys measure original number
According to destroying with anti-external force, the effect of measure is related, and by scoring measure application, it is former that available anti-external force destroys measure
Beginning data, anti-external force destroy measure initial data and includes: the anti-external force of road area destroys measure application effect overall score, and (unit is
Point), the anti-external force in bridge area destroys measure application effect overall score (unit is point), the anti-external force in bridge _ viaduct region is destroyed
Measure application effect overall score (unit be point), the anti-external force in drainage pipeline region destroy measure application effect overall score, and (unit is
Point), the anti-external force in water supply line region destroy measure application effect overall score (unit is point), the greening anti-external force in area coverage region
Destruction measure application effect overall score (unit is point), greening area coverage _ build up the anti-external force destruction measure application effect of region
Fruit overall score (unit is point), the anti-external force in greenery area region destroy measure application effect overall score (unit is point), greenery patches face
It is broken accumulate _ to build up the anti-external force destruction measure application effect overall score of region (unit is point), the anti-external force in park greenbelt region
Bad measure application effect overall score (unit is point) and the anti-external force of park surface area destroy measure application effect overall score (unit
To divide).
The above-mentioned group of other anti-external force obtained at least in two years destroys measure initial data and destroys measure according to anti-external force
Initial data determines that every group of anti-external force destroys the weight point of measure and destroys measure curve to obtain anti-external force.
Cable external force damage curve generation module 50, for destroying measure curve according to municipal works amount curve and anti-external force
Obtain cable external force damage curve.
Cable external force damage curve is obtained specifically, municipal works amount curve is subtracted anti-external force and destroys measure curve.
The current failure number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for obtaining the cable current one time for prediction module 70, and
Predict that time of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable according to current failure number and cable external force damage curve
Number.
In the present embodiment, current failure number is the number for current year external force destructive malfunction occurring, next unit time
The number that external force destructive malfunction occurs for next year cable for the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for inner cable.
The prediction cable occur external force destructive malfunction number system, by obtain history municipal works data and
Anti- external force destroys measure initial data and obtains cable external force damage curve, and external force destructive malfunction occurs according to the current one time
Number and cable external force damage curve predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time.The system passes through obtained electricity
Cable external force damage curve can intuitively predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time, and data are history number
According to, the efficacy data of measure is destroyed including municipal engineering construction and anti-external force, so as to balanced economy and validity it
Between relationship, the construction for destroying measure to municipal works and anti-external force has directive significance.
Specifically, municipal works amount curve generation module 10 includes:
First taxon, for obtaining the other municipal works initial data of the setting group at least two unit time,
And municipal works initial data is classified to obtain the municipal works classification data of corresponding classification according to each group other relationship.
Municipal works initial data other for the setting group of acquisition, according to the other relationship of each group by municipal works original number
According to classification, for example, the long road of road and path area are all related with road, the long circuit-switched data of road can be classified as with path area data
It is a kind of.In a specific embodiment, above-mentioned 12 groups of municipal works data can be divided into five classes, be respectively as follows:
1st class: link length and path area；2nd class: bridge number and viaduct number；3rd class: drainage pipeline length and water supply line
Length；4th class: greening area coverage, greening area coverage built-up areas, greenery area and greenery area built-up areas；5th class: public
Garden greenery area and park area.
Setting at least nine unit time is obtained in a kind of specific embodiment for the accuracy for improving prediction
Surely other municipal works initial data is organized, for example, in one embodiment, obtaining 2000 to the 2013 city's political and ideological works in certain city
Journey initial data.
First data processing unit, for carrying out including to municipal works classification data and normalized obtains each group
The normalization numerical value of other municipal works.
In the data of classification, the case where being inclusion relation there are part group data and other group data, for example, bridge
Beam number contains viaduct number, and greening area coverage includes greening area coverage built-up areas, and greenery area is built comprising greenery area
At area etc., therefore, it is necessary to carry out that initial data is subtracted to the packet of inclusion relation comprising processing to municipal works classification data
Containing data.
Meanwhile the measurement unit of five class data of front is different, is not easy to be compared data and operation, because
This, needs that classification data is normalized.Normalization is a kind of dimensionless processing means, makes the exhausted of physical system numerical value
Certain relative value relationship is become to value.The addition of data from now on for convenience, the method compared here by max min.
Normalized formula is as follows:
Wherein, x' indicates that the numerical value after normalization, X indicate to need normalized array, and x indicates to normalize in array X
Numerical value before.
First weight calculation unit, for calculating the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group according to municipal works initial data
To obtain the weight of municipal works data of all categories.
Carry out initial data go to include and normalize after, it is thus necessary to determine that the power that each factor contributes project amount
Weight.Annual annual rate of increase is the important indicator of engineering construction performance, although annual project amount further includes in addition to construction
Daily maintenance, maintenance etc..But for a possibility that cable is destroyed by external force, it is clear that construction amount be it is most important, because
This, can determine weight according to the annual annual growth of the other municipal works of each group.
The growth rate of the other municipal works of each group is calculated according to municipal works initial data respectively.Growth rate and unit time
It is related, in the present embodiment, specially annual growth.City of all categories is calculated again according to the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group
The weight of political affairs project data.Specifically, the weight of a classification municipal works data is the corresponding other municipal works of group under the category
Growth rate average value.For example, the weight of primary sources is being averaged for both link length and path area annual growth
Value.If there are the municipal works of negative growth rate, that is, show that the group engineering is removed, in the municipal works for calculating its generic
When the weight of data, take absolute value.
In order to enable each index weights Data Matching, can set Various types of data weight and be not to be exceeded 50%, once being more than will
It is calculated according to 50%, other kinds data are redistributed by annual growth.
Second weight calculation unit, for according to the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group in municipal works of all categories
Ratio determines the weight of the other municipal works data of each group under the category.
By taking primary sources as an example, after the weight for determining primary sources, according to the year according to link length and path area
The ratio between growth rate determines the weight of this two groups of data of link length and path area.
Municipal works amount curve generation unit, for other according to the normalization numerical value and each group of the other municipal works of each group
The weight of municipal works data is fitted to obtain municipal works amount curve.
Specifically, by the normalization data of the other municipal works of each group and its multiplied by weight, then every group of addition can be obtained
Municipal works amount after the normalization of at least two unit time carries out the municipal works amount of different year according to the difference of time
Curve matching, finally obtains a municipal works amount curve, and the municipal works amount curve prediction of the fitting has the municipal administration of next year
Project amount.
In another embodiment, anti-external force destruction measure curve generation module includes:
Acquiring unit destroys measure for obtaining each other anti-external force of setting group at least nearest two unit time, and
Measure is destroyed to the anti-external force of each group according to measure effect to score to obtain the anti-external force of each group and destroy measure initial data.
Second taxon, for anti-external force to be destroyed the classification of measure original number to be corresponded to according to the other relationship of each group
The anti-external force of classification destroys measure classification data.
Anti- external force other for each group destroys measure initial data, and anti-external force is destroyed measure point according to the other relationship of each group
Class.In a specific embodiment, above-mentioned 11 groups anti-external force can be destroyed measure and is divided into five classes, be respectively as follows:
1st class: the anti-external force of road area destroys measure application effect overall score；2nd class: the anti-external force destruction of bridge and viaduct region is arranged
Apply application effect overall score；3rd class: the anti-external force of draining and water supply line region destroys measure application effect overall score；4th class:
Greening area coverage, greening area coverage built-up areas, greenery area and greenery area build up the anti-external force destruction measure of region and answer
With effect overall score；5th class: park greenbelt and the anti-external force of park surface area destroy measure application effect overall score.
Second data processing unit is carried out comprising processing for destroying measure classification data to anti-external force to obtain each group
Not anti-external force destroys measure process data.
Third weight calculation unit calculates the other anti-external force protection of each group for destroying measure process data according to anti-external force
The growth rate of measure is to obtain the weight that anti-external force of all categories destroys measure.
The growth rate that measure process data calculates the other municipal works of each group is destroyed according to anti-external force respectively.Growth rate and list
The position time is related, in the present embodiment, specially annual growth.Measure process data is destroyed again according to the other anti-external force of each group
Calculate the weight that the anti-external force in city of all categories destroys measure.Specifically, the weight that the anti-external force of a classification destroys measure is under the category
The corresponding other anti-external force of group destroys the average value of the growth rate of measure.If the anti-external force for negative growth rate occur destroys measure processing number
According to when calculating the weight of municipal works data of its generic, take absolute value.
In order to enable each index weights Data Matching, can set Various types of data weight and be not to be exceeded 50%, once being more than will
It is calculated according to 50%, other kinds data are redistributed by annual growth.
4th weight calculation unit, for being arranged according to the other anti-external force destruction of each group in anti-external force destruction measure of all categories
The ratio for the growth rate applied determines that the other anti-external force of each group under the category destroys the weight of measure.
Anti- external force destroys measure curve generation unit, other anti-with each group for destroying measure process data according to anti-external force
The weight that external force destroys measure is fitted to obtain anti-external force destruction measure curve.
Specifically, the other anti-external force of each group is destroyed measure process data and multiplied by weight, then every group of addition can be obtained
Anti- external force after the quantization of at least two unit time different years destroys action data, and the anti-external force destruction of different year is arranged
Apply data to carry out curve fitting according to the difference of time, finally obtain an anti-external force and destroy measure curve, the fitting it is anti-outer
Power, which destroys measure curve prediction, has the anti-external force in the city of next year to destroy action data.According to the municipal works amount curve of fitting and intend
The anti-external force closed, which destroys the cable external force damage curve prediction that measure curve obtains, has next year cable external force to destroy data.
In another embodiment, prediction module 70 includes:
The current failure of external force destructive malfunction occurs for obtaining the cable current one time for number of stoppages acquiring unit
Number.
If the unit time is year, current failure number is the number of current year external force destructive malfunction.
Comparing unit, for the correspondence numerical value and current failure in the cable external force damage curve by the current one time
Number is compared to obtain ratio.
In a specific embodiment, by the correspondence numerical value and current year external force in the cable external force damage curve of current year
The number of destructive malfunction obtains ratio K.
Predicting unit is predicted for the correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve according to next unit time with ratio
The number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time inner cable.
In a specific embodiment, the correspondence number of next unit time is found in cable external force damage curve
Value, for example, the correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve of next year is multiplied with ratio K, i.e., predictable next year cable
The number of external force destructive malfunction occurs.
The prediction cable occur external force destructive malfunction number system, by obtain history municipal works data and
Anti- external force destroys measure initial data and obtains cable external force damage curve, and external force destructive malfunction occurs according to the current one time
Number and cable external force damage curve predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time.The system passes through obtained electricity
Cable external force damage curve can intuitively predict that the number of destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time, and data are history number
According to, the efficacy data of measure is destroyed including municipal engineering construction and anti-external force, so as to balanced economy and validity it
Between relationship, the construction for destroying measure to municipal works and anti-external force has directive significance.For example, if the number that prediction obtains
It is excessively high, it can suitably increase anti-external force and destroy measure；If number is less, it can temporarily be increased without anti-external force and destroy measure.
Cable external force destructive malfunction frequency is controlled by this system within the scope of acceptable.
Each technical characteristic of embodiment described above can be combined arbitrarily, for simplicity of description, not to above-mentioned reality
It applies all possible combination of each technical characteristic in example to be all described, as long as however, the combination of these technical characteristics is not deposited
In contradiction, all should be considered as described in this specification.
The embodiments described above only express several embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but simultaneously
It cannot therefore be construed as limiting the scope of the patent.It should be pointed out that coming for those of ordinary skill in the art
It says, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, various modifications and improvements can be made, these belong to protection of the invention
Range.Therefore, the scope of protection of the patent of the invention shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of method that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable characterized by comprising
Obtain the other municipal works initial data of setting group at least nearest two unit time and according to the municipal works
Initial data determines the weight of every group of municipal works data to be fitted to obtain municipal works amount curve；
It obtains the other anti-external force of the setting group at least nearest two unit time and destroys measure initial data and according to described anti-
External force destroys measure initial data and determines that every group of anti-external force destroys the weight of measure to be fitted to obtain anti-external force destruction and arrange
Apply curve；
Measure curve, which is destroyed, according to the municipal works amount curve and the anti-external force obtains cable external force damage curve；
The current failure number of cable current one time generation external force destructive malfunction is obtained, and according to the current failure number
And the cable external force damage curve predicts that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable.
2. the method that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described
Obtain the other municipal works initial data of setting group at least nearest two unit time and original according to the municipal works
Data determine the weight of every group of municipal works data and include: the step of municipal works amount curve to be fitted to obtain
Obtain the other municipal works initial data of setting group at least two unit time, and according to the other relationship of each group by institute
The classification of municipal works initial data is stated to obtain the municipal works classification data of corresponding classification；
The municipal works classification data is carried out including and normalized obtains the normalization of the other municipal works of each group
Numerical value；
The growth rate of the other municipal works of each group is calculated according to the municipal works initial data to obtain municipal administration of all categories
The weight of project data；
It is determined under the category according to the ratio of the growth rate of the other municipal works of each group described in the municipal works of all categories
The other municipal works data of each group weight；
It is carried out according to the weight of the normalization numerical value of the other municipal works of each group and the other municipal works data of each group
Fitting obtains municipal works amount curve.
3. the method that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described
The other anti-external force of setting group at least nearest two unit time is obtained to destroy measure initial data and broken according to the anti-external force
Bad measure initial data determines that every group of anti-external force is destroyed the weight of measure initial data and destroyed to be fitted to obtain anti-external force
The step of measure curve are as follows:
It obtains each other anti-external force of setting group at least nearest two unit time and destroys measure, and according to measure effect to each group
Not anti-external force destroys measure and scores to obtain the anti-external force of each group and destroy measure initial data；
The anti-external force classification of measure original number is destroyed according to the other relationship of each group to destroy with the anti-external force for obtaining corresponding classification
Measure classification data；
Measure classification data is destroyed to the anti-external force to carry out destroying measure processing comprising processing to obtain the anti-external force of each group
Data；
Measure process data, which is destroyed, according to the anti-external force calculates the growth rate of the other anti-external force safeguard measure of each group to obtain
The weight of measure is destroyed to anti-external force of all categories；
The ratio for the growth rate for destroying measure according to the other anti-external force of each group in the anti-external force destruction measure of all categories determines
The other anti-external force of each group under the category destroys the weight of measure；
The weight that measure process data destroys measure with the other anti-external force of each group is destroyed according to the anti-external force to be fitted
It obtains anti-external force and destroys measure curve.
4. the method that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described
Obtain the current failure number that external force destructive malfunction occurs for the cable current one time, and according to the current failure number and
The cable external force damage curve predicts that the step of number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable includes:
Obtain the current failure number of cable current one time generation external force destructive malfunction；
Correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve of current one time is compared with the current failure number
To ratio；
Next unit time is predicted with the ratio according to the correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve of next unit time
The number of inner cable generation external force destructive malfunction.
5. the method that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable according to claim 2, which is characterized in that described
Formula used by normalized are as follows:
Wherein, before x' indicates that the numerical value after normalization, X indicate that normalized array, x is needed to indicate to normalize in array X
Numerical value.
6. the system that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for a kind of prediction cable characterized by comprising
Municipal works amount curve generation module, for obtaining the other municipal works of setting group at least nearest two unit time
Initial data and according to the municipal works initial data determine every group described in municipal works data weight to be fitted
To municipal works amount curve；
Anti- external force destroys measure curve generation module, other anti-outer for obtaining the setting group at least nearest two unit time
Power, which destroys measure initial data and destroys measure initial data according to the anti-external force, determines that every group of anti-external force destroys measure
Weight destroys measure curve to be fitted to obtain anti-external force；
Cable external force damage curve generation module, it is bent for destroying measure according to the municipal works amount curve and the anti-external force
Line obtains cable external force damage curve；
The current failure number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for obtaining the cable current one time for prediction module, and according to institute
It states current failure number and the cable external force damage curve predicts that external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time cable
Number.
7. the system that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable according to claim 6, which is characterized in that described
Municipal works amount curve generation module includes:
First taxon, for obtaining the other municipal works initial data of the setting group at least two unit time, and root
The municipal works initial data is classified to obtain the municipal works classification data of corresponding classification according to each group other relationship；
First data processing unit, for carrying out including to the municipal works classification data and normalized obtains each group
The normalization numerical value of other municipal works；
First weight calculation unit, for calculating the increasing of the other municipal works of each group according to the municipal works initial data
Long rate is to obtain the weight of municipal works data of all categories；
Second weight calculation unit, the growth for the other municipal works of each group according to the municipal works of all categories
The ratio of rate determines the weight of the other municipal works data of each group under the category；
Municipal works amount curve generation unit, for according to the normalization numerical value of the other municipal works of each group and each group
The weight of other municipal works data is fitted to obtain municipal works amount curve.
8. the system that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable according to claim 6, which is characterized in that described
Anti- external force destroys measure curve generation module
Acquiring unit, for the other anti-external force destruction measure of setting group each in acquisition at least nearest two unit time, and according to
Measure effect destroys measure to the anti-external force of each group and scores to obtain the anti-external force of each group and destroy measure initial data；
Second taxon, for the anti-external force to be destroyed the classification of measure original number to be corresponded to according to the other relationship of each group
The anti-external force of classification destroys measure classification data；
Second data processing unit is carried out comprising processing for destroying measure classification data to the anti-external force to obtain each group
Not anti-external force destroys measure process data；
Third weight calculation unit calculates the other anti-external force of each group for destroying measure process data according to the anti-external force
The growth rate of safeguard measure is to obtain the weight that anti-external force of all categories destroys measure；
4th weight calculation unit, for being arranged according to the other anti-external force destruction of each group in the anti-external force destruction measure of all categories
The ratio for the growth rate applied determines that the other anti-external force of each group under the category destroys the weight of measure；
Anti- external force destroys measure curve generation unit, for destroying measure process data and each group according to the anti-external force
Anti- external force destroy the weight of measure and be fitted to obtain anti-external force and destroy measure curve.
9. the system that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable according to claim 8, which is characterized in that described
Prediction module includes:
The current failure number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for obtaining the cable current one time for number of stoppages acquiring unit；
Comparing unit, for the correspondence numerical value and the current failure in the cable external force damage curve by the current one time
Number is compared to obtain ratio；
Predicting unit is predicted for the correspondence numerical value in the cable external force damage curve according to next unit time with the ratio
The number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for next unit time inner cable.
10. the system that the number of external force destructive malfunction occurs for prediction cable according to claim 7, which is characterized in that institute
State formula used by normalized are as follows:
Wherein, before x' indicates that the numerical value after normalization, X indicate that normalized array, x is needed to indicate to normalize in array X
Numerical value.
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Effective date of registration: 20200922 Address after: 510620 Tianhe District, Guangzhou, Tianhe South Road, No. two, No. 2, No. Patentee after: Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd. Address before: 510620 Tianhe District, Guangzhou, Tianhe South Road, No. two, No. 2, No. Patentee before: GUANGZHOU POWER SUPPLY Co.,Ltd. |