CN102521497A - Method and system for handling power grid operation risk - Google Patents
Method and system for handling power grid operation risk Download PDFInfo
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- CN102521497A CN102521497A CN2011103988743A CN201110398874A CN102521497A CN 102521497 A CN102521497 A CN 102521497A CN 2011103988743 A CN2011103988743 A CN 2011103988743A CN 201110398874 A CN201110398874 A CN 201110398874A CN 102521497 A CN102521497 A CN 102521497A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for handling a power grid operation risk. The method comprises the following steps of: acquiring values of the severity of consequence and each risk factor, wherein the severity of consequence and each risk factor correspond to the power grid operation risk; computing a consequence value and a probability value of the power grid operation risk; computing a risk value of the power grid operation risk; according to the risk value of the power grid operation risk, determining the risk level of the power grid operation risk; and sending a risk level determination result to a power grid operation risk control end. Furthermore, the invention also discloses a system for handling the power grid operation risk. The system comprises a factor value acquisition module, a consequence value and probability value computation module, a risk value computation module, a risk level determination module and a risk level sending module. By adoption of the method and the system for handling the power grid operation risk provided by the invention, the degree of human participation in risk identification and evaluation operation is reduced, risk handling time is shortened, and potential risks can be more effectively found, so that management of the power grid operation risk is more objective and scientific.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the electric power netting safe running technical field, relate in particular to a kind of operation of power networks risk disposal route and a kind of operation of power networks risk disposal system.
Background technology
Safety is the operation of power networks Eternal Theme, and " Safety first, precaution crucial " is the policy that electric power enterprise is followed for a long time, sets up effective safety management and the risk prevention system core content of electric power enterprise safety in production especially.Therefore, operation of power networks Risk Identification, assessment and processing are the important topics that electric power enterprise is faced.
The power grid security risk refers to the uncertainty of safe operation of electric network, promptly possibly influence factor, incident or the possibility of state generation and the combination of consequence of safe operation of electric network.For a long time, owing to not setting up the risk disposal route of moulding, the safety in production analyst also rests on experience judgement and the subjective analysis Risk Identification and assessment, is difficult to reach objective and requirement science.And the data such as running status, risk identification and assessment result to electrical network in the present safe operation of electric network management work are not done analytic statistics; Cause in the processing procedure of operation of power networks risk, existing the phenomenon of the work of repetition, had a strong impact on the work efficiency of power grid risk management.
Summary of the invention
For solving the problem of above-mentioned existence, the invention discloses a kind of operation of power networks risk disposal route and a kind of operation of power networks risk disposal system.Calculate the value-at-risk of operation of power networks and confirm risk class through the risk factors after quantizing, not only improved the safe operation of electric network management work efficiency, and science and objective more.
A kind of operation of power networks risk disposal route may further comprise the steps:
Obtaining operation of power networks risk corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influences the numerical value of factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor;
According to the above-mentioned numerical value that obtains, calculate operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value;
According to the operation of power networks effect of risk value and the probable value that calculate, calculate the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk;
Confirm the risk class of operation of power networks risk according to the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk;
Definite result of risk class is sent to operation of power networks risk control end.
Compared with prior art; Operation of power networks risk disposal route provided by the present invention is in that a large amount of operation of power networks data and factor are carried out on the basis of statistical study, through the risk factors that influence operation of power networks are quantized; Set up a mathematics computing model that can more accurately reflect the operation of power networks risk situation; Thereby calculate the probable value and the consequence value of operation of power networks risk, and further calculation risk value, judge that the risk class of operation of power networks risk also sends to the risk control end.The present invention greatly reduces the artificial degree of participation in risk identification and the evaluation work, has reduced owing to personnel lack experience or the careless and inadvertent situation that causes serious consequence.Not only avoided the work that the repeats phenomenon in the risk management, shortened the risk processing time, and can more effectively find potential risk, made the more objective and science of risk management work of operation of power networks.
A kind of operation of power networks risk disposal system comprises factor numerical value acquisition module, consequence value probable value computing module, value-at-risk computing module, risk class determination module and risk class sending module;
Said factor numerical value acquisition module is used to obtain the numerical value that operation of power networks risk corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influence factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor;
Said consequence value probable value computing module is used for calculating operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value according to the above-mentioned numerical value that obtains;
Said value-at-risk computing module is used for calculating the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk according to the operation of power networks effect of risk value and the probable value that calculate;
Said risk class determination module is used for confirming according to the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk the risk class of operation of power networks risk;
Said risk class sending module is used for definite result of risk class is sent to operation of power networks risk control end.
Compared with prior art; Operation of power networks risk disposal system provided by the present invention; After various risk factors are scientifically quantized; Calculate the probable value and the consequence value of operation of power networks risk, and further calculation risk value, judge that the risk class of operation of power networks risk also sends to the risk control end.Greatly reduce the artificial degree of participation in risk identification and the evaluation work, can realize automatic identification, assessment and the forecast of operation of power networks risk, improve the efficient and the electric network emergency ability of safety management work.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow diagram of operation of power networks risk disposal route of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the structural representation of operation of power networks risk disposal system of the present invention.
Embodiment
Be further set forth the present invention technological means of being taked and the effect that obtains,,, know and complete description the operation of power networks risk disposal route proposed by the invention and the technical scheme of system below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and preferred embodiment.
See also Fig. 1, be the schematic flow diagram of operation of power networks risk disposal route of the present invention.Operation of power networks risk disposal route of the present invention may further comprise the steps:
S101 obtains the numerical value that operation of power networks risk corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influence factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor;
The power grid security risk comprises baseline risk and problem-targeted risk; Baseline risk is meant the risk that in the long term, exists under electrical network normal mode or the normal condition, and problem-targeted risk is meant improper mode or the interior risks that exist of following regular period of particular case such as system test, overhaul of the equipments, unit exception.
The factor that influences the operation of power networks risk has the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency to influence factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor.
Factors quantization is the process of giving numerical value to each factor that constitutes the operation of power networks risk and potential loss level.The result of factors quantization draws through the expertise accumulation of knowledge with to the statistical study of historical data; Can from numerical value, analyze and assess, reflect the influence degree of each risk factors relatively objectively operation of power networks to each factor that influences the operation of power networks risk.After the above factor that influences the operation of power networks risk is quantized, can give above each factor assignment according to the virtual condition of operation of power networks.
Preferably, operation of power networks effect of risk order of severity score value can be obtained, consequence order of severity table can be set up then through maintenance.
Preferably; A large amount of operation of power networks data are being carried out on the basis of statistical study, and can set up social influence factor table, device type factor table, fault category factor table, historical data statistical factor table, weather effect factor table, equipment deficiency respectively according to following factors quantization numerical value influences factor table, overhaul management factor table, repair time factor table, site operation factor table and control measure factor table.
The device type factor:
The fault category factor:
| Type | First kind fault | Second type of fault | The 3rd type of fault |
| Score value | 1 | 0.2～0.6 | 0～0.2 |
The historical statistics factor:
Calculate the historical data statistical factor=1+ same category of device number of times/same category of device sum that on average breaks down every year by following formula.
The weather effect factor:
| Type | Normally | Typhoon | Thunderstorm gale | Risk of forest fire | High temperature | Dense fog | Freeze |
| Score value | 1 | 1～4 | 1～2 | 1～1.5 | 1～1.2 | 1～1.2 | 1～1.5 |
In the quantification sampling process of the described weather effect factor of above form, according to the meteorological disaster early warning signal, only choose its comparatively serious yellow, orange, red early warning grade is carried out value.Wherein, for the situation of typhoon: yellow early warning gets 1～2, orange early warning gets 2～3, red early warning gets 3～4; Situation for thunderstorm gale: yellow early warning gets 1～1.2, orange early warning gets 1.2～1.5, red early warning gets 1.5～2; Situation for risk of forest fire: orange early warning gets 1～1.2, and red early warning gets 1～1.5; Situation for high temperature: orange early warning gets 1.1, and red early warning gets 1.2; Situation for dense fog: orange early warning gets 1.1, and red early warning gets 1.2; For the situation of freezing: look weather condition and circuit icing situation value.
The equipment deficiency factor:
| Type | Normal condition | Attention state | ERST | Serious state |
| Score value | 1 | 1.2 | 2 | 3 |
In addition, also can carry out value to the equipment deficiency factor according to the regulation of each defect management regulation or equipment state evaluation.
The overhaul management factor:
| Type | Scheduled overhaul | Unplanned maintenance | Accident maintenance |
| Score value | 1 | 1.5 | 2 |
The repair time factor:
| Repair time | 1～3 day | 3～10 days | 10～30 days | More than 30 days |
| Score value | 0.3～0.5 | 0.5～1.0 | 1.0～1.5 | 1.5～3.0 |
The site operation factor:
| Type | Site operation is to the influence of operational outfit |
| Score value | 1～2 |
The control measure factor:
The control measure factor is meant that stable device and low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device etc. can lower the control measure of power grid security risk, and its value can be given a mark by the expert, value between 0 to 1 scope.Control measure are big more to the effect of lowering the generation of power grid security risk, and then the value of this factor is more little.
The social influence factor:
For baseline risk, the social influence factor can be taken as 1.
After setting up above table; According to the actual conditions of operation of power networks, just can obtain the numerical value that operation of power networks risk instantly corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influence factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor according to above table.
S102 calculates operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value according to the above-mentioned numerical value that obtains;
A large amount of operation of power networks data and factor are being carried out on the basis of statistical study, can know that the operation of power networks risk is relevant with consequence value and probable value.
The power grid security risk comprises baseline risk and problem-targeted risk, and after step S101 obtained the numerical value of above-mentioned factor, preferred, operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value can be calculated through following method:
The said consequence order of severity and said social influence factor multiplied each other calculate said consequence value;
When said operation of power networks risk is problem-targeted risk, said device type factor, said fault category factor, said historical data statistical factor, said weather effect factor, said equipment deficiency is influenced factor, said overhaul management factor, said repair time factor, said site operation factor and said control measure factor multiply each other and calculate said probable value;
When said operation of power networks risk was baseline risk, said device type factor, said fault category factor and said historical data statistical factor multiplied each other calculated said probable value.
S103 calculates the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk according to the operation of power networks effect of risk value and the probable value that calculate;
Preferably, after step S102 draws operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value, can calculate the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk through following method:
Said operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value multiplied each other calculate the value-at-risk of said operation of power networks risk.
The method of aforementioned calculation operation of power networks value-at-risk comprised influential each risk factors of operation of power networks, can be more accurately and scientifically reflect and the risk situation of operation of power networks provide powerful support for for safety in production provides.
S104 confirms the risk class of operation of power networks risk according to the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk;
According to the value-at-risk of the operation of power networks risk that calculates among the step S103, can determine the risk class of operation of power networks risk.
Preferably, can carry out risk rating through following risk class evaluation criteria:
I level (jumbo line): 1000≤value-at-risk;
II level (material risk): 300≤value-at-risk＜1000;
III level (greater risk): 60≤value-at-risk＜300;
IV level (general category-A risk): 20≤value-at-risk＜60;
V level (general category-B risk): 5≤value-at-risk＜20.
In addition, when comprising the above grade power grids operation risk of two and two simultaneously, get its highest risk class.According to above-mentioned operation of power networks risk rating result, can make the risk control personnel take corresponding control measures according to the different risk grade.
S105 is sent to operation of power networks risk control end with definite result of risk class.
After determining the risk class of operation of power networks risk, risk class is confirmed that the result sends to the risk control end with the form of early warning, also can provide the Different control measure to select simultaneously according to the risk class type for the risk control end.
In addition, for the risk of different brackets, the time that need send the early warning L. A. in advance is also different.
For the risk rating standard described in the step S104, can issue by the following time:
| Risk class | Shift to an earlier date issuing time |
| I level (jumbo line) | 7 days |
| II level (material risk) | 5 days |
| III level (greater risk) | 3 days |
| IV level (general category-A risk) | 2 days |
| V level (general category-B risk) | 2 days |
See also Fig. 2, be the structural representation of operation of power networks risk disposal system of the present invention.Operation of power networks risk disposal system of the present invention comprises factor numerical value acquisition module 201, consequence value probable value computing module 202, value-at-risk computing module 203, risk class determination module 204 and risk class sending module 205;
Said factor numerical value acquisition module 201 is used to obtain the numerical value that operation of power networks risk corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influence factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor;
Preferably; Operation of power networks risk disposal system of the present invention comprises that also form sets up module, and said form is set up module and is used to set up consequence order of severity table, social influence factor table, device type factor table, fault category factor table, historical data statistical factor table, weather effect factor table, equipment deficiency and influences factor table, overhaul management factor table, repair time factor table, site operation factor table and control measure factor table.
After setting up above table; According to the actual conditions of operation of power networks, said factor numerical value acquisition module 201 just can obtain the numerical value that operation of power networks risk instantly corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influence factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor according to above table.
Said consequence value probable value computing module 202 is used for calculating operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value according to the above-mentioned numerical value that obtains;
The power grid security risk comprises baseline risk and problem-targeted risk; After said factor numerical value acquisition module 201 obtained the numerical value of above-mentioned factor, said consequence value probable value computing module 202 can calculate operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value through following method:
The said consequence order of severity and said social influence factor multiplied each other calculate said consequence value;
When said operation of power networks risk is problem-targeted risk, said device type factor, said fault category factor, said historical data statistical factor, said weather effect factor, said equipment deficiency is influenced factor, said overhaul management factor, said repair time factor, said site operation factor and said control measure factor multiply each other and calculate said probable value;
When said operation of power networks risk was baseline risk, said device type factor, said fault category factor and said historical data statistical factor multiplied each other calculated said probable value.
Said value-at-risk computing module 203 is used for calculating the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk according to the operation of power networks effect of risk value and the probable value that calculate;
Preferably, after said consequence value probable value computing module 202 drew operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value, said value-at-risk computing module 203 can calculate the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk through following method:
Said operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value multiplied each other calculate the value-at-risk of said operation of power networks risk.
Said risk class determination module 204 is used for confirming according to the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk the risk class of operation of power networks risk;
Said risk class determination module 204 can carry out risk rating through following risk class evaluation criteria:
I level (jumbo line): 1000≤value-at-risk;
II level (material risk): 300≤value-at-risk＜1000;
III level (greater risk): 60≤value-at-risk＜300;
IV level (general category-A risk): 20≤value-at-risk＜60;
V level (general category-B risk): 5≤value-at-risk＜20.
Said risk class sending module 205 is used for definite result of risk class is sent to operation of power networks risk control end.
After determining the risk class of operation of power networks risk, risk class is confirmed that the result sends to the risk control end with the form of early warning, also can provide the Different control measure to select simultaneously according to the risk class type for the risk control end.
Above-described embodiment of the present invention does not constitute the qualification to protection domain of the present invention.Any modification of within spirit of the present invention and principle, being done, be equal to replacement and improvement etc., all should be included within the claim protection domain of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. an operation of power networks risk disposal route is characterized in that, may further comprise the steps:
Obtaining operation of power networks risk corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influences the numerical value of factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor;
According to the above-mentioned numerical value that obtains, calculate operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value;
According to the operation of power networks effect of risk value and the probable value that calculate, calculate the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk;
Confirm the risk class of operation of power networks risk according to the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk;
Definite result of risk class is sent to operation of power networks risk control end.
2. operation of power networks risk disposal route as claimed in claim 1; It is characterized in that the step that the said consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, the equipment deficiency that obtains operation of power networks risk correspondence influences the numerical value of factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor may further comprise the steps:
Set up consequence order of severity table, social influence factor table, device type factor table, fault category factor table, historical data statistical factor table, weather effect factor table, equipment deficiency and influence factor table, overhaul management factor table, repair time factor table, site operation factor table and control measure factor table;
According to the table of above-mentioned foundation, obtain the numerical value that operation of power networks risk corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influence factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor.
3. operation of power networks risk disposal route as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, in the step of said calculating operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value, the said consequence order of severity and said social influence factor multiplied each other calculates said consequence value.
4. operation of power networks risk disposal route as claimed in claim 1; It is characterized in that; In the step of said calculating operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value; When said operation of power networks risk is problem-targeted risk, said device type factor, said fault category factor, said historical data statistical factor, said weather effect factor, said equipment deficiency is influenced factor, said overhaul management factor, said repair time factor, said site operation factor and said control measure factor multiply each other and calculate said probable value.
5. operation of power networks risk disposal route as claimed in claim 1; It is characterized in that; In the step of said calculating operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value; When said operation of power networks risk was baseline risk, said device type factor, said fault category factor and said historical data statistical factor multiplied each other calculated said probable value.
6. operation of power networks risk disposal route as claimed in claim 1; It is characterized in that; In the step of the value-at-risk of said calculating operation of power networks risk, said operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value multiplied each other calculates the value-at-risk of said operation of power networks risk.
7. an operation of power networks risk disposal system is characterized in that, comprises factor numerical value acquisition module, consequence value probable value computing module, value-at-risk computing module, risk class determination module and risk class sending module;
Said factor numerical value acquisition module is used to obtain the numerical value that operation of power networks risk corresponding the consequence order of severity, social influence factor, device type factor, fault category factor, historical data statistical factor, weather effect factor, equipment deficiency influence factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor;
Said consequence value probable value computing module is used for calculating operation of power networks effect of risk value and probable value according to the above-mentioned numerical value that obtains;
Said value-at-risk computing module is used for calculating the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk according to the operation of power networks effect of risk value and the probable value that calculate;
Said risk class determination module is used for confirming according to the value-at-risk of operation of power networks risk the risk class of operation of power networks risk;
Said risk class sending module is used for definite result of risk class is sent to operation of power networks risk control end.
8. operation of power networks risk disposal system as claimed in claim 7 is characterized in that, comprises that also form sets up module;
Said form is set up module and is used to set up consequence order of severity table, social influence factor table, device type factor table, fault category factor table, historical data statistical factor table, weather effect factor table, equipment deficiency and influences factor table, overhaul management factor table, repair time factor table, site operation factor table and control measure factor table.
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