A Large Regular

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

There was a large bomb that was detonated in Nashville. The media has been lagging in reporting about it because they need to know the motivation of the bomber first before framing the story. That in a nutshell is the state of our media today... In Star Wars they are called Tie-Fighters but nobody in that universe seems to wear ties. Minor detail that bugs me... Wonder if you could get a Super Bowl bet on the Kansas City Chiefs vs the Field? And what would be the odds on the Field? I like the field... People who have to shovel the snow never dream of a White Christmas - just saying... Instant Entropy would be a good name for a demolition construction company... Part of me would like to see a version of I Will Survive sung by Donald Trump with Joe Biden as the feckless lover... The only people making a better return on investment this fall than people who invested in Bitcoin are bookies taking NFL action... 

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

President Trump saying I hereby order US companies to look into moving their operations out of China is like me hereby ordering the New England Patriots to win the AFC East. Those outcomes were happening anyway but the difference is I won't get to take credit for the Patriots success... Heh Heh... Was shocked but not surprised at the news Andrew Luck is retiring. His body has taken a lot of punishment and he's earned enough money to have the luxury of not needing to do it any more. To me Luck deciding to retire at 29 is not much different from Rob Gronkowski deciding to save his body and retire at age 30... Carnal Acquaintances would be a good name for a band or a fantasy football team name... Note to self: from now on only bet on the ponies if I'm at the racetrack and only bet on golf if I'm the one swinging the sticks... Heh Heh... The news of Luck retiring should make Patriots fans extra grateful for having Dante Scarnecchia coaching the O-line and protecting Tom Brady so successfully over the years. The one year Scar "retired" is the year Brady took the worst beating of his career. Coach Scar should be in the Hall of Fame...

Today is Sunday - but it doesn't quite feel like a Sunday does it? It's Week 16 and that mainly means teams are either positioning themselves for the playoffs or now worried more about personal stats because there will be no playoffs. Week 16 also means the championship match-up in most fantasy leagues. Good luck if you've made it this far.

To be honest - not very enthusiastic any of the games today. So here's a 300-pound lineman returning a kickoff.

For the 1:00 games I'll go with a 3-team moneyline parlay - the Lions, Panthers and Redskins - risking $100 to win $255.

For the 4:00 games I'll go with a 6.5 point teaser - 49ers +10.5 and Cowboys over 40.

Good luck!

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I find it hard to believe that the Founding Fathers who grew hemp did not know about the "medicinal" qualities of the female plant... I can't imagine the emotion the holder of this ticket experienced during and after the final play of Monday night's Chiefs game... Ornamental Gargoyles would be a good name for a band of ugly guys... Moving the Chargers to LA was a huge mistake... Too bad that Wrongheaded Mystical Enthusiasm is too long to use as a fantasy football team name... A buttload is an actual unit of measure. Who knew?... God bless Mitch Trubisky...

What I've learned over the years of doing this blog is if I post my picks there's a much greater chance that I'll lose. If I don't post them - there's a much greater chance that I win.  Kind of like Schrodinger's Cat (Lynch's Bets?). I keep asking myself why bother?

I went 0-2 last week but both games easily could have gone the other way. Cie la vie.

Today I like the Pats -6.5 (I bought the extra 1/2 point) and the Vikings +7. Bradford being a game time decision makes a dent in my confidence in my Minnesota pick but I'm taking them anyway (just for less money).

It should be noted that I was weary about taking Pittsburgh last week because everyone seemed to be picking them. The same seems true for the Pats and Vikings today and it does honestly concern me. I keep thinking of how everyone was picking BC to cover against Notre Dame yesterday and Wyoming to cover against Oregon. Both BC and Wyoming got smoked.

They say if 80% of the bets are on one side then the smart money will be among the 20%. Luckily only 60% seem to be taking New England today.

Good luck.

Bill Clinton has just two things on his mind today.... The two college football playoff games.

ALR: Mister President thank you for joining us this morning. I understand you are a big college football fan. Who do you like in today's Oklahoma vs Clemson matchup?

BC: Good to be here Chris. I woke up this morning craving melons for breakfast and now I'm craving some football. My first inclination was toward Clemson because I thought the coach's name was Yabbos Sweeney but I was mistaken. I know "Big Game" Bob Stoops is just 8-8 in bowl games in his career but I think the Sooners win this one. I'm giving the 4 points (though I'm hoping I get a line of -3.5 so I can buy half a point).

ALR: And the Alabama vs. Michigan State game?

BC: It may surprise some folks that Nick Saban is also just 8-8 straight up and against the spread in bowl games but here's the thing - Saban really brings his milk shakes to the yard when playing against former assistants. It's like me running an election against Al Gore (who is a real boob and not the good type of boob). I like the Crimson Tide even though 10 is a lot of pompoms to be giving up.

ALR: Good luck Mister President.

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

If I was Dana White I'd have the UFC make a $100 million offer to Floyd Mayweather to fight Ronda Rousey in the octagon. I bet more people would pay to watch that than Saturday's fight. Of course Mayweather wouldn't take the deal but then the UFC could claim that Mayweather is afraid of women who fight back. It would be another nail in the coffin for boxing and great publicity for the UFC... Reconsidering The Wire amidst the violence in Baltimore... Who knew? The reason dealers at casinos clap their hands when leaving the table is to show the "eye in the sky" that they aren't taking any chips away from the table cupped in their hands... Heh heh - Don Pardo's old business card... The Mayan calendar was so exact it was only off one day every 6,000 years... I wonder if Cubs fans are starting to feel about Jon Lester the way some older Red Sox fans felt about Mike Torrez...

Here's 5 thoughts on yesterday's Kentucky Derby.

1. I hit the trifecta yesterday but for the second time in the past 5 years the amount I won wasn't enough to cover my bar tab for the day.

2. Bob Costas must really love doing the Kentucky Derby. Watch how happy he is when he's looking down to interview the jockeys.

3. The $2 trifecta paid just over $200. If any of top three horses other than American Pharaoh had won - the payout would have been at least double. I did a 5-horse tri-box with Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, Dortmund, Firing Line, and American Pharaoh. It costs $120. I may do the same bet for the rest of the triple crown races.

4. How funny would it be if instead of elaborate hats - the ladies (and Johnny Weir) had to wear fake beards?

5. I want to own the suit Rob Gronkowski wore to the Kentucky Derby yesterday.

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Now in order to win 95 games the Red Sox would have to go 75-38 the rest of the way. Good luck with that... Yesterday a bettor won $6.67 million on the Pick Six at Gulfstream. The cost of the winning ticket was $7,603 which means this was no casual bettor... Jimmy Kimmel's Celebrities Read Mean Tweets... "I went to my doctor and told him 'My penis is burning'. He said that means someone is talking about it" - Gary Shandling... Hollywood is so out of ideas it wouldn't surprise me to see Casablanca II: A Beautiful Friendship starring Aston Kutcher and Charlie Sheen... Ha ha - this was exactly how I felt about the Kayne West / Kim Kardashian wedding!... What would I do for a Klondike Bar? I guess go to the store and pay a buck and a half. That's what I'd do for a Klondike Bar.... Donald Sterling's favorite Christmas song? I'm Dreaming of a White Mistress... Everything science knows about hangovers and how to cure them... "A million Marines could not take Tarawa in a hundred years." Japanese admiral before the US Marines took the island in 3 days...

Stuff I found interesting and thought I'd share.

- If the JoeBots drive away Bill O'Brien - who do they think would wade into their toxic swamp to replace him?

- The Pogues Shane MacGowan seeking dental help so he can star in a Hollywood movie. You have to admit that would be great advertising for the firm that does it. "If we can fix Shane MacGowan's teeth - we can fix anyone's!"

- Interesting article about pool hustlers back in the day.

- Heh heh

Stuff I found interesting and thought I'd share.

- Very cool - all five of Yu Darvish's pitches in one delivery

- If you use an off-shore betting account - this article is must reading.

- The "human computer" passes away

- Wow - Sperm whales battling Killer whales

- The Hubble Telescope's top 100 images

Stuff I found interesting and thought I'd share.

Ha - I think this is great. Nobel laureate sets up table on street and lets people ask him physics questions.

Jerry Seinfeld's web video series is off to a funny start.

Golf writer/editor George Peper bought 2 bedroom flat overlooking 18th hole on Old Course in 1983 for $65,000 and is now selling it for over $2 million. Nice investment.

Really cool new photos of Saturn

I love stories like this - Man risks $66,200 on single roulette bet in Vegas and wins!


Interesting look at Portugal's drug policies and how decriminalizing drugs over 10-years ago changed things 

Marco Rubio recently released his book An American Son: A Memoir. You probably saw him on one of the dozens of shows he went on to promote the book. Many of his interviewers commented on Rubio playing football in his youth but all of them seem to have overlooked a potential scandal mentioned in his book.

When Marco was young his family moved from Miami out to Las Vegas. It was there that his family converted to being Mormons but it was also there where the football scandal happened. In Chapter 7 - Growing Up Vegas Rubio describes his third year in Pop Warner football. He describes how he switched teams from the Sooners to the Cavaliers in the hopes of getting more playing time and how his dad became the equipment manager of the Cavaliers - also in an attempt to get Marco more playing time at quarterback. No big deal. That's a story that is played out in almost every town in the country in almost every sport. What makes this story different is what Rubio's dad did as equipment manager.

After Cavaliers games, the parents hung around the field for a while, drinking beer and joking with each other, and my father was welcome in their company. He joined and eventually led an effort to collect money to give as cash prizes to players who scored touchdowns or made the hardest tackles. [Emphasis added]

On the surface a small thing. Just a couple of throw-away sentences describing his third year in Pop Warner. But Rubio had to know what he was describing was wrong.

Rubio is a big football fan. He had to be aware of ESPN doing a big expose on gambling in South Florida on Pop Warner football games. The Outside the Lines piece probably came out just as Rubio was working on his first draft for his book. Playing his youth games in Las Vegas - the gambling capital of the world - isn't it an easy jump to suggest the parents of the Cavaliers were betting on their own kids? Isn't "paying bounties" another way of saying paying cash prizes for the hardest tackles? As a football fan Rubio could not possibly say he doesn't understand what a bounty is.

Of course at this point I admit that this is making a mountain out of a molehill. But the point is Rubio wrote this book as a preemptive vetting process as his name is being tossed around as one of the favorites for Mitt Romney's VP choice. Oftentimes it is the molehills that bring people down or at the least cause out of scale distractions. Just ask former Majority Leader Tom Daschle how the molehill of not paying for a livery service can kill any chance of serving in an Administration. Or ask Barack Obama about the stir caused by a few sentences in his book describing a meal made of dog and how it can be used as a punchline.

Pop Warner pay for play - the overlooked Marco Rubio scandal.

Very interesting article on Don Johnson (the man who beat the Atlantic City casinos for millions - not the Miami Vice actor).

Johnson beat the Tropicana for almost $6 million, the Bogata for almost $5 million and Caesars  for almost $4 million by playing perfect strategy blackjack. But that's only half the story. As the story says - as good as Johnson is at playing the cards he is just as good playing the casinos.

As I said - the article is well worth the time.

Today's Pick

Larry King's Racetrack Story

I love this story from Larry King.

Betting his last dollar on a horse. Great story.

Today's Pick

Tonight I like San Antonio giving 5 to Oklahoma City. The Thunder average a 5.5 point differential for the season and while they are playing at home they really haven't much to play for. The Spurs meanwhile are trying to hold on to 2nd place in the West. I am slightly worried about a possible let-down by the Spurs after their big win over Houston on Saturday but San Antonio is a veteran team and I'm betting they take care of business.

Today's pick - San Antonio Spurs -5

Vegas Finds the Magic Numbers

Look for the final numbers for the game tonight to be Colts -6.5 points and the over under at 47.5 points. I say that Vegas has found the magic numbers because as of 10:30 this morning - the money bet on the Colts and the money bet on the Bears is exactly equal at 50% apiece. That means that bookies will most likely even off on the amount bet but will make a "vig" off $1 out of every $2 bet.

Super Bowl Thoughts

I'm waiting for that story that comes out every year at the Super Bowl. You know the story I'm talking about - the story of how the local law enforcement officials in the city where the game takes place have a sting that nets dozens of ill-doers [Bush speak].

Law enforcement officials traditionally send out announcements to people with outstanding warrants saying that they have won tickets to the Super Bowl and that there will be a party with food and drink at some well known local hotel or ballroom to award the prizes. The scofflaws show up - have some food and drink and then instead of getting Super Bowl tickets - they get arrested.

Happens every year. It helps prove the rule that most criminals are stupid.

What got me thinking about this annual event was the fact that it traditionally happens either today (Friday) or on Saturday. I got to wondering how many people would get caught in the sting. I really feel that there should be record keeping for this and law enforcement officials should have some trophy that goes to the host city that nets the most criminals. They would get to keep the trophy until someone breaks their record.

Of course this could get out of hand with jurisdictions having stings for minor misdemeanors like having a Super Bowl pool, buying scalped tickets and the like just to break the record.

Speaking of criminal acts - betting on the Super Bowl is technically illegal but something that has become as American as apple pie. Everyone it seems buys a square in a pool or puts a little action on the game. The recent law against Internet gambling has had the unintended consequence of turning Internet savvy bettors into bettors who place bets with local bookies.

This was a consequence many of us saw coming and which we spoke out loudly against when the law was snuck into being. Many of us also saw the consequence of people starting to bet more than they normally would because local bookies work on the idea of credit whereas on-line sites require you to put money in advance into your "account". Did the new law actually increase illegal betting? If by amount bet - I would have to say yes the law has increased "illegal" betting because of the "credit" aspect.

One consequence that I didn't see at the time but have come to almost appreciate is the fact that Internet betting was drawing money out of the local and US economies whereas betting with the local bookie keeps the cash in local circulation. On-line betting had money bleeding out of the US to Costa Rica and other "offshore" nations. Betting with the local "Tony Soprano" keeps the money in local circulation (for example Tony always drove a new car and I'm guessing he paid cash plus all those dinners at local restaurants had to pump money back into the community economy).

I have to wonder if keeping money from flowing out of the country wasn't the real goal of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, (“UIGEA”). Remember - the law really only places real punishment on banks that facilitate the gambling.

This thought brings to mind a recent conversation I had with a DEA agent I know. He told me that he feels it wouldn't be such a bad thing to redeploy all the DEA agents to the borders because in the scheme of things stopping illegal drug smuggling and the related crimes (terrorism) that can go with it are much more important than trying to catch the urban guy who grows pot in his basement or the rural guy who has a pot grove in the local woods.

I agree with his thoughts (and he's the expert) but I also have to remark that the local pot growers also keep the money in local circulation whereas international smuggler I would think tend to try and take the money home with them.

Anyway - I seem to have wandered away from my original thought of what the over / under will be in criminals caught in a Super Bowl sting this year. Too bad you can't bet on something like that either on-line or with the local bookie. And no - I haven't been smoking local weed to go down this line of thinking in the first place (I know you were wondering about that).

Super Bowl Betting

I have no clue on who will win the Super Bowl or if the game will go over or under. My guess is that the Colts win the game but can they cover the 7 points? This game could be a shoot-out but even a 27-21 game won't go over the current 48.5 point over/under line. What to do?

Well because I'm unsure - I'm looking to get creative. My current plan is to make the four following bets:

Colts (-7) teased with the Over (48.5)
Bears (+7) teased with the Over (48.5)
Colts (-7) teased with the Under (48.5)
Bears (+7) teased with the Under (48.5)

These four bets would create a "middle" where if the Colts won by between 2 and 12 points and the point total was from 43 points and 54 points (a 12 point window) then I would win all four bets.

Put it this way - if all bets were for a mythical $100 then the most I could lose would be $200 but the most I could win would be $400 (the most you could lose is $200 because one of the bets HAS to come in and that winning bet would cancel out a second bet and leave just two bets to pay off). Plus there is a very good chance that two of the bets come in - say the Bears win and the combined score is from 43 to 54 points - in which case you come out even.

Of the last 10 Super Bowls - 60% were won between 2 and 12 points but only 20% had final point totals between 32 and 54 points. The risk is obviously real with the above strategy but is it worth the reward?

Help me decide whether the four bet strategy mentioned above is a good idea or a bad idea.

Of course the above discussion is for entertainment purposes only.