My 6 Team NFL Parlay
OK - gonna waste a good $10 on a 6-team parlay today (to win $520). Here's my picks:
- Atlanta Falcons -6.5 vs San Francisco (the Falcons are one of the best teams at home while the 49ers are a West Coast team playing a 1:00 East Coast game)
- Indianapolis Colts -7.5 vs Jacksonville (I know the Jags usually play the Colts tough but I think this time it will be a blowout)
- Buffalo Bills +6.5 vs New York Jets (Bills always play AFC East opponents tough at home and they covered against Miami getting fewer points)
- Philadelphia -6 vs Washington (with all the focus on the QB's the real mismatch has been overlooked - the Eagles defense is way better than the Redskins defense)
- Houston Texans -3 vs Oakland (this one scares me but I like the Texans to bounce back this week)
- San Diego Charges -9.5 vs Cardinals (time for the Chargers to breakout)
Showing posts with label NFL picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL picks. Show all posts
Sunday, September 12, 2010
NFL Picks
Oakland will be better this year - mainly because they no longer pretend that Jamarcus Russell is an NFL quarterback - and they have an uncanny ability to lose but still cover the spread BUT today the Titans will run all over them. Chris Johnson may get 250 yards rushing. Pick Tennessee -6
Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril should pressure Jay Cutler all day and Jay Cutler does not handle pressure well. If Cutler was a baseball player he would have been Heathcliff Slocumb (so I guess that makes Kyle Orton Derick Lowe and Tim Tebow as Jason Varitek). Pick Detroit +6.5 (buy half a point if you can)
Carolina beat the Giants 41-9 in week 16 last year. Has either team changed that much? Pick Panthers +6.5
I think Cleveland will be much improved this season while Tampa Bay will still be coached by Raheem Morris. Pick Browns +3
Miami is currently a 3 point favorite over the Bills. I know that it seems the Dolphins always have trouble playing in Buffalo but I'd grab this one before the line goes up to 3.5 or 4. Pick Dolphins -3
I can't pick against the Pats and bettors still love Brady in Belichick so much that you always get an extra point or so tacked on the line. Even so - in Brady we trust. Pick New England -5
Big Matt Ryan fan and even though I fear Pittsburgh's defense - I think the Falcons win this one. One a side note I really hope we hear "She said NO!" chants when Rapelesberger returns. Pick Atlanta -1
Dallas always seems to court drama and losing the opener would seem to be the drama that would not be unexpected. So I should pick Washington. But the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these rivals. So I should pick Dallas. But the Cowboys were just 1-2 against teams who run 3-4 defenses last season and Mike Shannahan has put in the 3-4 for the Redskins. So I should pick Washington. But Donovan McNabb couldn't beat Dallas when he was surrounded by more talent last season so why would I expect things to be different today? Pick Dallas -3
Pick Green Bay -3
Pick 49ers -3
Oakland will be better this year - mainly because they no longer pretend that Jamarcus Russell is an NFL quarterback - and they have an uncanny ability to lose but still cover the spread BUT today the Titans will run all over them. Chris Johnson may get 250 yards rushing. Pick Tennessee -6
Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril should pressure Jay Cutler all day and Jay Cutler does not handle pressure well. If Cutler was a baseball player he would have been Heathcliff Slocumb (so I guess that makes Kyle Orton Derick Lowe and Tim Tebow as Jason Varitek). Pick Detroit +6.5 (buy half a point if you can)
Carolina beat the Giants 41-9 in week 16 last year. Has either team changed that much? Pick Panthers +6.5
I think Cleveland will be much improved this season while Tampa Bay will still be coached by Raheem Morris. Pick Browns +3
Miami is currently a 3 point favorite over the Bills. I know that it seems the Dolphins always have trouble playing in Buffalo but I'd grab this one before the line goes up to 3.5 or 4. Pick Dolphins -3
I can't pick against the Pats and bettors still love Brady in Belichick so much that you always get an extra point or so tacked on the line. Even so - in Brady we trust. Pick New England -5
Big Matt Ryan fan and even though I fear Pittsburgh's defense - I think the Falcons win this one. One a side note I really hope we hear "She said NO!" chants when Rapelesberger returns. Pick Atlanta -1
Dallas always seems to court drama and losing the opener would seem to be the drama that would not be unexpected. So I should pick Washington. But the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these rivals. So I should pick Dallas. But the Cowboys were just 1-2 against teams who run 3-4 defenses last season and Mike Shannahan has put in the 3-4 for the Redskins. So I should pick Washington. But Donovan McNabb couldn't beat Dallas when he was surrounded by more talent last season so why would I expect things to be different today? Pick Dallas -3
Pick Green Bay -3
Pick 49ers -3
Sunday, January 04, 2009
NFL Thoughts
Yesterday:
Arizona 30 - Atlanta 24: The line going into the game was Arizona minus 1. When the line was originally set - Atlanta was a 1 point favorite. Arizona was at home with a veteran QB who had won a Super Bowl. Atlanta was on the road with a rookie QB. I wanted to take the Cardinals but I held off on the game because I'm a fan of Matt Ryan and didn't want to be rooting against him. Instead I took the over (51.5). Happy day.
San Diego 23 - Indianapolis 17: You had the veteran QB Peyton Manning versus the combustible Phillip Rivers. You had the solid Tony Dungy coaching against Norv Turner. I thought this was a lock. How does Rivers and Turner beat Peyton and Dungy? Special teams. On punts Indy was consistently pinned back against their own goal line. On kicks San Diego consistently started off with great field position. Indy should have won and covered.
Baltimore vs. Miami: Keep in mind that Miami was a 1 win team last year but that win came against Baltimore. Keep in mind that Miami is at home. Keep in mind that you have a veteran QB matched up against a rookie QB. Now forget all of that because it doesn't matter. Take Baltimore and give the 3 points.
Philadelphia vs Minnesota: Both home teams won and covered yesterday. Both home teams will lose today. Take Philadelphia minus 3. I also like the over in this game (41 points)
Yesterday:
Arizona 30 - Atlanta 24: The line going into the game was Arizona minus 1. When the line was originally set - Atlanta was a 1 point favorite. Arizona was at home with a veteran QB who had won a Super Bowl. Atlanta was on the road with a rookie QB. I wanted to take the Cardinals but I held off on the game because I'm a fan of Matt Ryan and didn't want to be rooting against him. Instead I took the over (51.5). Happy day.
San Diego 23 - Indianapolis 17: You had the veteran QB Peyton Manning versus the combustible Phillip Rivers. You had the solid Tony Dungy coaching against Norv Turner. I thought this was a lock. How does Rivers and Turner beat Peyton and Dungy? Special teams. On punts Indy was consistently pinned back against their own goal line. On kicks San Diego consistently started off with great field position. Indy should have won and covered.
Baltimore vs. Miami: Keep in mind that Miami was a 1 win team last year but that win came against Baltimore. Keep in mind that Miami is at home. Keep in mind that you have a veteran QB matched up against a rookie QB. Now forget all of that because it doesn't matter. Take Baltimore and give the 3 points.
Philadelphia vs Minnesota: Both home teams won and covered yesterday. Both home teams will lose today. Take Philadelphia minus 3. I also like the over in this game (41 points)
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Benedict Arnold Gives You His NFL Picks
On this day in 1780 - Benedict Arnold betrayed his country by giving the British the plans to the American position at West Point. Today we are "lucky" to have the ghost of Benedict Arnold here to make his NFL picks.
ALR: Welcome and thanks for joining us today.
BA: Pleased to be here young master Lynch.
ALR: Before we start on your NFL picks - I must ask you if it bothers you that your name has become synonymous with treason or treachery?
BA: As I say in purgatory - better infamy than no famy at all. What? Right?
ALR: OK... ummmm... so who do you like today in the NFL.
BA: Well I thought it would be nice to start off by picking a game involving a New York team since I won my fame at the battle of Saratoga and my infamy at West Point. However it seems the only team that actually plays in the state of New York is the team in Buffalo of all places. Anyways - the team named the Bills is favored by 9.5 points but if you tease the Bills with the Oakland Raiders you can win with any final score that has the Bills winning by 4 points up to 15 points.
ALR: So like in life - you want to play both sides against the middle?
BA: Well that is a vulgar way to put it but it is a matter of money you see. My next pick may put me in a more favorable light. I strongly support the Patriots giving 12.5 points against Miami.
ALR: So in real life you stabbed the "Patriots" in the back but today you advocate supporting the Patriots?
BA: Well in real life I was getting money for not supporting the Patriots - here I'm only giving points. Speaking of giving - since I "gave" those plans for West Point to the British - I thought it would be humorous to take the team from Pittsburgh but then I learned it's spelled Steelers and not Stealers. So in that case I say take the team from Philadelphia and give the 3 blasted points.
ALR: Thanks for joining us and good luck trying to win another 30 coins of silver.
On this day in 1780 - Benedict Arnold betrayed his country by giving the British the plans to the American position at West Point. Today we are "lucky" to have the ghost of Benedict Arnold here to make his NFL picks.
ALR: Welcome and thanks for joining us today.
ALR: Before we start on your NFL picks - I must ask you if it bothers you that your name has become synonymous with treason or treachery?
BA: As I say in purgatory - better infamy than no famy at all. What? Right?
ALR: OK... ummmm... so who do you like today in the NFL.
BA: Well I thought it would be nice to start off by picking a game involving a New York team since I won my fame at the battle of Saratoga and my infamy at West Point. However it seems the only team that actually plays in the state of New York is the team in Buffalo of all places. Anyways - the team named the Bills is favored by 9.5 points but if you tease the Bills with the Oakland Raiders you can win with any final score that has the Bills winning by 4 points up to 15 points.
ALR: So like in life - you want to play both sides against the middle?
ALR: So in real life you stabbed the "Patriots" in the back but today you advocate supporting the Patriots?
BA: Well in real life I was getting money for not supporting the Patriots - here I'm only giving points. Speaking of giving - since I "gave" those plans for West Point to the British - I thought it would be humorous to take the team from Pittsburgh but then I learned it's spelled Steelers and not Stealers. So in that case I say take the team from Philadelphia and give the 3 blasted points.
ALR: Thanks for joining us and good luck trying to win another 30 coins of silver.
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