A Large Regular

The world really has changed and sometimes its not for the better. That is the thought that has been stuck with me for about a week now. To illustrate why - let's take a look at a player comparison:

Player A - .331 BA / .417 OBP / .559 SLG / .976 OPS / 159 OPS+
Player B - .312 BA / .411 OBP / .585 SLG / .996 OPS / 154 OPS+

Both players seem pretty similar - right? How about the other numbers?

Player A - 3026 G / 3630 H / 1949 R / 475 HR / 1951 RBI
Player B - 2302 G / 2574 H / 1544 R / 555 HR / 1831 RBI

Player B was able to amass more HR and almost the same RBI production despite player more than 700 fewer games than Player A. I think that fact tells you very much about the days each player spent their careers. Very telling.

Player A is Stan "the Man" Musial who recently passed away. Player B is Manny Ramirez. I almost feel dirty for making this player comparison because as players Musial was on a very different plain than Manny. And as persons - the two weren't even in the same universe.

The comparison just stuck in my mind. And it made me sad for how some changes are not for the better.

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I think a Romney / Petreaus ticket would really be a big winner... Seeing a confused middle aged guy in the tampon section of a CVS is one of the most bemusing moments of my week... Scott Podsednik wearing 26 for the Red Sox is the final nail in any argument people may have about Boston retiring Wade Boggs' number (even though Peter Gammons guaranteed that the owners were going to do it about 5 years ago)... Where did the phrase "steal my thunder" come from? I love stories about phrase and word origins... God's teaspoon of seawater contains billions of bacteria and around 5 million walruses - according the Bible I was reading in my dreams... Manny Ramirez is forgotten but not gone in Boston. The Red Sox still owe him 14 more yearly payments of $1.9 million. They will be paying Manny until he's 54-years old. Don't tell me that steroids don't pay...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

My thoughts on Manny Ramirez "retiring"? Manny made over $200 million in his career. Owners and general managers were happy to pay him even though many must have had suspicions. Now he gets to enjoy that money but he doesn't get a spot in the Hall of Fame... Just saying but if Tiger wins the Masters he is sooo getting laid Sunday night... Well played, Dewey Decimal system... If Freddy Couples wins this year's Masters at age 51 - is that a bigger deal than Jack Nicklaus winning at age 46?... The situation with Manny Ramirez just makes me sad for guys like Fred McGriff. I think he's one of the real victims of steroid abusers. Yes I don't know for sure that the Crime Dog wasn't also injecting but I'm pretty damn sure he wasn't... Am I the only one who reads the NFL headlines about Judge Nelson and thinks the story will somehow be about Judd Nelson and a Breakfast Club sequel?... Not right now. Batman is busy!... I haven't seen the Rebecca Black Friday video nor the 2 Girls 1 cup video and God willing I never will... Have you seen that Viagra commercial where the guy has a classic car with an overheating radiator? He fixes the problem by just pouring in some bottled water. In real life wouldn't steam have blow up in his face or the radiator cap have burned his hand at the very least?... This was silly but it makes me smile every time...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Keith Olbermann is out at MSNBC. Just curious but does anyone think the Olbermann ratings came close to justifying his contract? Is anyone really surprised at this business decision? Most people deriding this move say that they just fired the guy with the highest ratings at the network but they never mention the guy had lower ratings than Samurai Jack re-runs... Interesting - Why We Have Different Types of Screws and Screwdrivers... Schtup With People will be my Fantasy Baseball team name this year. Exploding Dildos is out. I got the name from this list of awful band names. Too bad Gynecological Whack-A-Mole is too long... The trade between the Angels and Blue Jays looks like an absolute disaster. The Blue Jays get two players they can actually use while the Angels get a franchise crippling contract. Oh and did I mention that Vernon Wells has been awful at Angels Stadium (.226 BA/ .267 OBP/ .340 SLG/ .607 OPS in 159 AB). Absolute disaster... Also interesting - An elevator that publicly shames people who go only one floor... Saying Olbermann had the best ratings at MSNBC is like saying some player is the best on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster. Faint praise indeed... Meanwhile the Tampa Bay Rays signed both Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. Just a couple of years ago who would have guessed that Damon would get twice as much as a free agent than Manny?... I so want to have a poster sized picture of this... Those Captain Morgan commercials about rum and coke being greatest idea ever crack me up but not for the reason they intend. They have two guys with a gallon of rum and just one 2-liter bottle Coke. Those are going to be some strong drinks. I can't help but picture how those two schmucks will look when they are half-way done with the bottle of Captain...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

When Manny Ramirez comes back from his suspension - I hope he hears the "cheater, cheater, hormone eater" chant every time he comes to bat. That chant is the best... Did you know that Tris Speaker actually had more triples in his career (222) than strikeouts (220)?.... Two blondes walk into a bank - you think one of them would have seen it... Today the Boston Globe's Nick Carfardo had this throw-away line, "Evan Longoria is turning into Mike Schmidt before our eyes." Umm - no. After his first 145 games (at age 23) - Schmidt had just 19 HR and a sub .200 batting average. After 152 games into his career - the 23-year old Longoria already has 38 HR (basically double Schmidt's output) while hitting at a .292 clip. Longoria is actually off to a much better start of career than Schmidt... Did you know that no player has ever reached 3,000 hits during his tenure with the Yankees? Gerhig, Ruth, Mantle, Dimaggio, or Mattingly never reached 3,000 for the Pinstripes. Derek Jeter is at 2569 for the Yankees but will his contract situation keep him from 3,000?... Johnny Damon hit his 9th HR of the season today for the Yankees. As I've mentioned before - it is very important for the Yankees to re-sign Damon. The fact that 7 of the 9 HR have been hit in the new Yankee Stadium underlines how important he can be to that club in that park... The Boston Trifecta - YES!!!!

Steroids

Lots of gnashing of teeth regarding Manny Ramirez's suspension for steroids (please I know it was technically for a masking agent but he was doing steroids). Lots of suggestions about what is to be done to fix the situation in baseball. Let me add my suggestion to the list.

My suggestion is this - Manny Ramirez is suspended for 50 games but the team gets to fill his roster spot with another player. My suggestion is to take away the roster spot of the suspended player for the duration of the suspension. So under my plan the Dodgers would only be able to field 24 players instead of 25 for the duration of Manny's suspension. This would make teams less likely to sign steroid-linked players in the first place (or at least dampen what it would cost to sign them).

Say It Ain't So Manny

Manny Ramirez is reported to have tested positive for performance enhancing drugs.

A 50 game suspension is supposedly to be be announced today.

Wow - just wow.

Manny Who?

During the Red Sox current 9-game winning streak they have a team OPS of 1.025. That's the same OPS Manny Ramirez has for the season.

Going into today's action - Manny was 19th in the major leagues in OPS. Jason Bay - Manny's hopefully long term replacement - is 5th in all of baseball with a 1.135 OPS. Kevin Youkilis leads everyone with a mark of 1.345.

The Lost Generation

Ask not to know for whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee

The phrase "the lost generation" was made famous by Ernest Hemingway. It described the generation of American writers who lived in Paris and other parts of Europe, some after military service in World War I. Members of the Lost Generation included Hemingway, F. Scott Fitzgerald, Ezra Pound, Sherwood Anderson, Waldo Peirce, and John Dos Passos.

Baseball has their own Lost Generation - the players of the so called Steroids Era.

Take a look at the Top 20 Home Run Hitters of all-time. There are 11 players on the list who played from roughly the time of Ernest Hemingway's original Lost Generation back when Babe Ruth first took the field for the Red Sox in 1914 til Mike Schmidt retired in 1989. That's 11 players from a span of 75 years. The Steroids Era put 9 players into the all-time top 20 in just 20 years.

Of those 9 players - 3 are proven steroids users (Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro and Alex Rodriguez) and two are assumed by pretty much everybody to have been users (Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa). That leaves just 4 players on that list who have not been tainted - yet.

Ken Griffey Jr. - injuries have robbed Junior of much of his career. He was considered the natural (pun intended). After A-Rod's revelations would it be so shocking to find out that Junior juiced too? It should be remembered that the accepted story is that Barry Bonds decided to juice after meeting with Junior at Griffey's home and being upset at the attention McGwire was getting.

Jim Thome - let's be honest. If you asked people who knew nothing about baseball to pick out the players on steroids from any team picture of any team Thome has been on - then the stocky muscular Thome gets picked almost every time.

Manny Ramirez - I was the biggest Manny apologist for the longest time but I wouldn't be surprised at this point if his name was among that list of 104.

Frank Thomas - Oh no - not the Big Hurt! Many people point out Barry Bonds magic hat size expansion as proof of his juicing. Who has a bigger noggin in baseball than Frank Thomas?

The point is that none of the home run hitters of the steroids era are above suspicion anymore. If feel bad for Junior, Thome, Manny and Frank Thomas if they did things the clean way because now they will forever be lumped in with the Bonds, Palmeiros and A-Rod's.

Ask not for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for you and your favorite home run hitter.

Steroids

“Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive” - Sir Walter Scott

By now everyone is aware that Alex Rodriguez supposedly tested positive for steroids back in 2003. Here are a couple of thoughts on the subject.

1. I question the timing. Four sources confirmed the story for Sports Illustrated. Four sources! This isn't just one guy who has it out for A-Rod - there were four sources! Who benefits from this information being announced at this time? Barry Bonds certainly benefits as he is both taken out of the spotlight and he is no longer the only bad guy. Having A-Rod named opens a can of double standard worms. Why was Bonds singled out when baseball knew players like A-Rod were testing positive?

2. As much as the announcement may have benefited Barry Bonds - the announcement benefited the owners much more. They just took the highest paid player down a big notch and now any older slugger will be looking at a reduced contract because just the shadow of steroids will deflate the worth of any 30+ slugger. If you think Manny Ramirez' market worth is low now - can you imagine what will happen to his worth is he happens to be named among the 104 players who flunked the steroids test back in 2003?

3. The owners knew what players were on steroids. Remember Rangers owner Tom Hicks saying, "Juan Gonzalez, for $24 million, after he came off steroids probably... we just gave that money away." This is the same Tom Hicks who traded away A-Rod right after he tested positive for steroids in 2003.

4. It's not like the owners and the Commissioner haven't manipulated news about steroids before. Remember how the news about Rafael Palmeiro was delayed until after Ryne Sandberg was inducted into the Hall of Fame? If you think about it - the Commissioners Office was probably well placed to organize the leaking of A-Rod's name. They had both motive and opportunity.

5. Joe Posnanski made a great point (sorry I can't find the link) about how that 104 players who flunked the test in 2003 probably represents a much higher number than the 5-7% we were told it was. Poz notes "There were roughly 432 players who qualified for the batting title, the ERA title or pitched 50 innings of relief" and compares that to "If 104 people tested positive, and it was 5% — that means they tested 2,080 baseball players." Those numbers don't seem to add up - do they?

Oh what a tangled web baseball is weaving regarding steroids.

Manny Ramirez

The Manny Ramirez situation is very interesting. I think there are several things at play here which are worth a comment:

- The one-year $25 million offer is very smart from the Dodgers point of view. The Dodgers do need offense but they can't afford to spend that sort of money on a player who could take a month off mid-season to balky knees or a troubled hammy. By making it a one-year deal the Dodgers make sure they get Manny's full attention. He needs to play to get paid in 2010. What better way to make sure Manny focus' on the 2009 season?

- The "screw you Scott Boras" aspect of this is good PR for the club. Nobody likes Boras - nobody. Making the $25 million offer public is in effect calling Boras' bluff. Now everybody knows what the Dodgers are willing to do. If another team is willing to go to two or three years for Manny - fine. The Dodgers have both shown their fans that they were willing to pay top dollar for Manny but at the same time they stood up the the man many blame for ruining the game.

- It has to be asked if the money the Dodgers are willing to pay to Manny would be better used elsewhere. They could literally sign Adam Dunn and Ben Sheets for the same money they would pay Manny (maybe even a lot less than what Manny would cost). Dunn would give them the HR bat they need and Sheets could help fill the role of the departed Derek Lowe. The problem is for the Dodgers that they can't go and sign a Ben Sheets and then have Manny accept his $25 million offer. There's obviously a limit to the Dodgers' budget.

- An aspect that is not talked about but what may be the most important consideration for many teams is the draft picks involved. The Dodgers have compensation picks coming for losing Derek Lowe to the Braves and if they lost Manny to another team - they would have more picks coming. That would allow them to sign an Adam Dunn and a Ben Sheets without impacting their farm system too much. Maybe that's another reason they have made their bids to Manny Ramirez so public - so other teams would know where they stand and thus know what the costs would be without Boras hyping it any further.

EDIT: As an aside - look for a team like the Nationals to offer Manny a two-year deal for like $50 million if the Dodgers one-year deal looks like the only offer. The Nationals draft pick is protected (because it's first overall) and the Nationals could use Manny to sell tickets early in the year and then turn around and trade him to a contender for prospects near the trading deadline.

Offer to Manny

Scott Boras does have at least 2 offers on the table for the services of Manny Ramirez. The Dodgers have offered a 2-year $45 million contract and now Boras has a second offer.

The problem with the second offer is that the GM should have made it a 3-year deal so that Boras could honestly say that he has a 3-year deal on the table instead of making up fictitious offers from non-existent teams.

Team Snapshot - Los Angeles Dodgers

When the Dodgers eventually sign Manny Ramirez - they still won't be a team built to win the NL West. The pitching is too thin and too inexperienced. Ned Colleti is a bad GM and under him the farm system has become depleted.

C - Russell Martin is one of the top offensive catchers in baseball and is backed up by one of the worst offensive catchers in baseball - Brad Ausmus.

1st - James Loney is a 30 HR guy. Too bad that's a career mark (32 career HR) - not a potential for him to hit for a season. Loney for all the hype is a just a young Sean Casey.

2nd - Blake DeWitt is the starter but I'd almost prefer his back-up - Mark Loretta.

SS - I like Rafael Furcal but if we are honest with ourselves then you have to admit that he parlayed a small sample size 36 games of hitting .357 into a 3-year $30 million contract. Furcal has been in the bigs since 2000 and has never had a full season batting over .300. I think you are looking at a .285 season out of Furcal - that is if he can stay healthy.

3rd - If the Dodgers don't sign Manny Ramirez - then Casey Blake is probably the likely leader in HR for this team. Let that sink in and then think about the chances of the Dodgers offense leading the team to the NL West title. This fact alone is why I'm sure Manny will eventually sign with the Dodgers.

LF - OK - here's how I see this playing out. The Dodgers sign Manny to a 3-year $75 million contract and then they trade Juan Pierre to the Yankees for flotsam and jetsam to save on Pierre's $8 million contract.

CF - Matt Kemp budding star.

RF - Andre Ethier is my favorite Dodger because I play poker with his second cousin. Ethier could be a real sleeper in many fantasy baseball leagues.

Starters - The Dodgers season in large part rests on the shoulders of 25-year old Chad Billingsley and 21-year old Clayton Kershaw. If one or both of these guys don't have stellar seasons - then the Dodgers could be sunk. Can you imagine how intimidating the Dodgers young rotation could have been if they managed to sign David Price out of high school when they drafted him in 2004? The Dodgers still haven't answer the major question of how they will replace Derek Lowe's 200 plus innings. Are they counting on Jason Schmidt to bounce back from his shoulder problems? Ned Colleti is a lousy GM.

Bullpen - Does closer Jonathan Broxton really weigh over 300 pounds?

Carnac Reveals the Baseball Playoffs



Answer: The Boston Red Sox
Question: Who will win the AL East?

The Red Sox will win the AL East in large part because the Tampa Bay Devil Rays finish the season with 8 road games.

Answer: The Boston Red Sox
Question: Who wins the AL Championship Series?

Tampa Bay will be forced to fly out to play the Angels and though they will make it close - the Angels will prevail. Meanwhile the Red Sox just overmatch the Twins. This sets up an Angels / Red Sox ALCS which will be won by the Red Sox.

Answer: The Boston Red Sox
Question: Who will win the World Series?

The Red Sox will end up beating the surprising Los Angeles Dodgers who have perhaps the hottest starting pitching in the NL. It will be the starting pitching which gets the Dodgers into their first series since 1988.

Answer: Conspiracy Theorists
Question: Who else will be predicting a Red Sox - Dodgers World Series?

You know the TV network folks really don't want Tampa Bay to advance. In any other year the best TV match-up for the World Series would be Red Sox / Cubs. But with the Manny Ramirez uber-storyline lurking in the wings - a Red Sox / Dodgers match-up will be too good to be true and lead to many cries that the fix was in.

And if you don't like my predictions - may a camel with a weak kidney condition find your hope chest.

Bay vs Moss

Everyone wants to compare Jason Bay's production so far in a Red Sox uniform to what Manny Ramirez has done with the Dodgers. What about Brandon Moss though? Check out these numbers:

Moss - .333 BA / 1 R / 1 HR / 3 RBI
Bay - .313 BA / 6 R / 1 HR / 4 RBI

These comparisons don't really mean much but they are interesting to consider.

Manny and his Amazing Technicolor Dream Dreds

I thought the analogy of Jonah being overthrown to calm the stormy seas was an apt analogy to describe the Manny Ramirez situation and trade. Charlie Pierce paints a picture that is more biblically akin to Joseph and his multi-colored coat being thrown down a well by his jealous brothers.

It is the delegation of "veterans" who came to Epstein declaring, in essence, "We cannot work in this ambience!" (then perhaps huffing off to their trailers for a massage and some chamomile tea) that's the most bizarre element of the whole affair. For all the murmurings from the fainting couch by the local baseball romantics about how Manny Ramirez failed to respect The Game and did his teammates dirt, these same people seem more than willing to accept the proposition that the rest of your defending World Champions are made of candy glass. Is the poisonous presence of Manny Ramirez the reason catcher Jason Varitek is petrifying almost by the hour, or why Josh Beckett hasn't thrown a changeup in six weeks, or why most of The Kids have been playing like people who got lost on the way to the AAA park? (Jacoby Ellsbury, the speedy young center fielder who was such a sensation in last year's World Series, is hitting an abysmal .186 since the All-Star break and has stolen one base since June 17.) And has Epstein himself been so distracted by Ramirez's performance that he's failed to notice that his middle relief corps is a landfill?

There is no denying that Pierce has a point.

Lyford on Manny

I agree with Lyford's assessment of Manny's accomplishments with the Red sox and on the trade that sent him out of town. I find myself a little more optimistic about Jason Bay but in general we are in agreement of the situation. One thing that must be pointed out and stressed:

The team has gone to the post-season four times in the Manny Ramirez era. They're 7-2 in post-season series, with two World Series championships. During those post-season games, Manny has hit .321/.422/.558/.990, with 11 HR. He was the MVP of the 2004 World Series.

In the playoffs when the team needed him most - Manny came up huge! Thanks for everything Manny.

May the road rise to meet you and may the wind always be at your back.

Jonah Ramirez

In the bible Jonah is called by God to prophesize in the city of Nineveh. Jonah instead tries to sail to Tarshish. God sends a great storm and Jonah realizes that the storm is his fault. The sailors throw Jonah overboard and the seas calm and Jonah is swallowed by a great fish.

Manny Ramirez was called to be a great baseball player but instead this season he was the middle of a great storm of his own making. Today the Red Sox front office has traded him away - thrown him overboard if you will - with the hopes that the seas will be calmed and a tranquility will descend upon the Red Sox clubhouse.

That was the analogy that struck me with the trading of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers with the Red Sox getting Jason Bay on their end.

Taking a closer look at the trade - here are my thoughts.

Red Sox - this is more than just addition by subtraction. Yes - Manny Ramirez had become more than mere distraction and shipping him out of town automatically improves the atmosphere in Fenway Park. Jason Bay is not chopped liver though. Manny will probably feast on NL pitching but he will be hitting primarily in pitcher's ballparks. It should also be noted that this is the 2008 Manny - not the 2004 Manny that many people seem to be describing. His skills at the plate are in decline. He put up an OPS+ of 140 to this point for the Red Sox. I can easily see Jason Bay matching that production both for the rest of this season and also for 2009.

The Red Sox also gave up Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen in the deal. I'm happy for Moss because he'll get to play full time in Pittsburgh. Hansen is a Scott Boras client and I have to wonder if that played into the decision to include him in the deal. Now the only Boras clients on the team are Jason Varitek, Jacoby Ellsbury and JD Drew. It will be interesting to see how the team handles the Varitek negotiations with Boras. I almost expect them to make a take it or leave it one-year offer (with Varitek taking it).

It should also be pointed out that with Manny gone and Curt Schilling probably retiring - the Red Sox will have $21 million freed up for next season's salary budget. That is no small item and why they did not hesitate to pick up the rest of Manny's 2008 salary.

Dodgers - they get Manny and his bat but they also get Manny and his creaky legs and his leaky defense. They lose Andy LaRoche who has not lived up to his hype yet (but he's still only 24). They also lose AA pitcher Bryan Morris who may be a diamond in the rough. I think if Ned Colletti organized a picnic - he'd have seven deserts, no sandwiches and potato salad past its expiration date. He's not a very good GM.

Pirates - normally I'm against trading a quarter for 5 nickels but this may work out for Pittsburgh. They get an outfielder to replace Bay in Moss (who could be better than David Murphy who has prospered in Texas since getting to play full time). They get a LaRoche brother on both hot corners (think of the marketing potential). They get a player who could turn into a legit MLB closer in Hansen (who could then be traded for even more prospects). And they get a top pitching prospect in Morris. Most importantly they get players who are all cheap and under team control for a few years to come. In addition - they don't have to pay signing bonuses to any of these guys. If they took the 2 first round picks when Bay walked after 2009 - the combined 2009 salary for Bay and the signing bonuses for those 2 picks would be much more that what they will pay LaRoche, Moss, Hansen and Bryan Morris probably for the next 2 seasons.

Dewey, Garret and Manny

Compare the career numbers of these two players:

Player A - .272 BA / 1470 R / 385 HR / 1384 RBI / 127 OPS+
Player B - .295 BA / 1000 R / 266 HR / 1259 RBI / 105 OPS+

It should be noted that Player A played 20 seasons while Player B is in the midst of his 15th season. I'm not treating this as a quiz because I'm guessing the title of the post was too big of a hint. Player A is 3-time All-Star and 8-time Gold Glove winner Dwight Evans. Player B is 3-time All-Star Garret Anderson.

Why am I making this player comparison?

It occurred to me that when Anderson is done playing the Angels will be retiring his number. That's fitting seeing that Anderson holds almost all the franchise batting records except triples, stolen bases and home runs. Also consider that the Angels only have a couple of player numbers retired and those players (Fregosi, Carew and Ryan) didn't even play 90% of their careers with the Angels.

It can be argued that Dwight Evans was the much better all-around player. Anderson can play for 4 more years and still not pass Evans in many offensive categories. Yet Dwight Evans won't have his number retired by the team he played 19 seasons for while Anderson will. Irony isn't quite the word that I'm looking for but the comparison struck me nonetheless.

Where does Manny Ramirez fit into the discussion?

Going into this season a perfect storm was brewing to get Dwight Evans' number 24 retired by the Boston Red Sox. It looks like Jim Rice may finally get elected to the Hall of Fame this year and that opens the way for his number 14 to be retired by the Red Sox. Rice has to be honored by the Sox before Evans is - that's just the way it is. Going into the season it looked like Manny wanted to retire as a member of the Red Sox and that would have made retiring his number 24 (the same 24 that was worn by Evans) a no-brainer. Now it looks like Manny may separate from the team at the end of the year on maybe not the best of terms. That could dash any future plans to retire the number 24.

My guess always was that the Red Sox would honor both Manny and Dewey during a retirement of the number 24. I could see a 24 on the right field porch with a DE (for Dwight Evans) above and a MR (for Manny Ramirez) below. Now my guess is that the number 24 may not be retired at all.

But Garret Anderson's number 16 will.

The Manny Drama

If you've read this space for any length of time - you probably realize that I'm a fan of Manny Ramirez (and often an apologist as well). Like many Manny defenders - I'm done.

The situation as I see it is as follows:

- Manny Ramirez is a future Hall of Fame player who at 36-years old is past his prime but still very productive and still one of the top right-handed bats in the game.

- Manny's antics have gone from puzzling to cute to just plain annoying distractions.

- Manny has two team options each at $20 million per year on a contract he signed in 2001 negotiated by then agent Jeff Moorad. Now Manny's agent is Scott Boras who will not see a penny if those team options are exercised but who will get paid if Manny gets to sign a new multi-year deal elsewhere.

- Manny has said he is open to being traded if the trade helps the Red Sox.

The first question to ask is can Manny be traded? I'd assume that only a playoff contending team would be interested. It's unlikely that the Red Sox would trade him to an AL team. The Yankees are obviously out of the running. I doubt the Twins would make such a deal. The White Sox are set in the outfield and at DH. Ditto to a lesser degree the Tigers. The Angels could use a DH but I doubt the Red Sox would make a trade to a team they will probably play in the postseason.

That leaves the NL. The Mets have long coveted Manny but do they have the prospects to make it worth while? Ditto the Phillies. The Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals are pretty well set in the outfield. The two most logical places for Manny to land are the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Both teams need offense and both teams have fairly well stocked farm systems. The problem with prospects is that they don't help you win right now and the Red Sox want to win this year.

That means that logically what will probably happen is that Manny plays out the rest of the year with the Red Sox and then the team declines the 2009 option making him a free agent. That's the popular belief right now. However, I can see another scenario that in my mind is even more likely. Manny plays out the season and the Red Sox pick up his 2009 option with the intention of trading him. That would be a big "screw you" to both Manny and Scott Boras for bringing these distractions down upon the Red Sox in a pennant race. That's my best guess to what will happen.

The Red Sox pick up the 2009 option and then allow Scott Boras to broker a deal so that Manny gets a new contract (at I'm guessing less than $20 million per year) and the Red Sox get prospects in return. If Manny's agent brokers the deal how can he say no? This also puts the Red Sox in the drivers seat as they would have final say on yea or nay to any deal.