A Large Regular

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Love TJ Oshie for what he did in the shootout vs Russia. Love him even more for what he said about being a "hero"... Random thought - I still say Luis Tiant was better than Catfish Hunter but it is Hunter who was rewarded with a spot in the Hall of Fame... I have a soft spot in my heart for They Might Be Giants - especially for Birdhouse in Your Soul and the whole Flood album for that matter... When I see Vladimir Putin I can't help but think he's the real life character Karla out of all those John Le Carre novels... According to Ted Talks - the 100 websites you should know and use... I've said it before but John Travolta's best role may have been as the Boy in the Bubble. All downhill from there... PGA golfers Ricky Barnes and James Driscoll share what it was like golfing with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick... Patrick Swayze's Sex Pottery would be a good name for a band or a fantasy baseball team...  Who knew? Great Britain won the Olympic Gold for hockey in the 1936 Winter Olympics... Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band play Highway to Hell in Perth, Australia... Funny to remember that Donald Trump blamed Derek Jeter breaking his ankle in the 2012 playoffs on karma because Jeter had just sold his apartment in Trump Towers...

Johnny Damon - Hall of Famer?

Amid his Sunday Baseball Notes - Nick Carfardo offers this throw away line, "Johnny Damon is getting more and more support for Hall of Fame consideration."

Really? Is Carfardo serious? Or is he just giving Damon a nod while protecting himself by saying "consideration" instead of "support" because Johnny Damon is clearly not a Hall of Fame player. Damon is not in the top 50 for any offensive category and is well-known as a noodle-arm on defense. Jim Edmonds has a much better claim. Dwight Evans had a much better claim.

Combining Johnny Damon and Hall of Fame in the same sentence is perhaps the silliest thing I've seem Carfardo commit to print. I like reading Nick but come on. If Carfardo needed to boost his word count he could used Mad Libs to come up with a more coherent sentence.

Lies Damned Lies and Statistics

I had forgotten that Jim Edmonds was still playing for the Brewers. I saw he hit a home run last night and was curious of where Edmonds stood on the all-time list and whether a case could be made that Edmonds was a potential Hall of Fame player.

What I learned got me thinking about stats and whether they are all that people are cracking them up to be.

Jim Edmonds is in his 17th major league season. He won 8 Gold Gloves in a 9-year stretch during the prime of his career and was a feared slugger during that same stretch. He currently has 387 HR which places him 54th on the all-time list. That puts him just below Albert Pujols (388 and counting) and Johnny Bench (389). He's also just above Dwight Evans (385) who seems like the natural comparable in my mind.

Evans also won 8 Gold Gloves in his career and was also known more for his glove than his bat. That's not to belittle the offensive prowess of either player (Edmonds or Evans). What's strange is that in certain circles Dwight Evans is elevated above teammate Jim Rice in regards to offensive accomplishments.

Where am I going with this? Well I was just wondering if the type of person who argues that Dwight Evans was the superior player to Jim Rice would also try to argue that Jim Edmonds is a superior hitter to Johnny Bench. As has been pointed out both players are basically equal in HR and Bench played in 17 seasons - just like Edmonds. However, Edmonds has the better career OBP (.376 to .342), OPS (.903 to .817) and OPS+ (131 to 126) compared to Bench. Those are the type of stats that sabermetric minded folks eat up.

I would never dream of putting Jim Edmonds ahead of Johnny Bench but now I won't be shocked when someone makes that argument. You know it's coming.

Mike Mussina - Hall of Famer?

My immediate reaction is "No - Mike Mussina is not a Hall of Famer". King Kaufman has a very good article on Mike Mussina and the Hall of Fame which I'd like to use as my jumping off point to show why Mike Mussina is not a Hall of Famer. Two things to point out about the Kaufman piece - first he correctly writes that the Hall of Fame is "meant to honor the great, not the very good." Secondly he mentions by name ten pitchers (other than Mike Mussina) in his column. I'd like to take the comparison against these ten people Kaufman deemed worthy to mention by name to make my point:

Don Sutton - Hall of Famer with 324 wins, a .559 winning percentage and an ERA+ of 108. Like Mussina - Sutton never won a Cy Young Award and was never the dominant pitcher of his league. Like Mussina - Sutton also never won a World Series but acquitted himself so-so in the post season (Sutton was 6-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 14 post season starts while Mussina was 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 21 post season starts). Unlike Mussina - Sutton did hang around long enough to win 300 games. Sutton wins the Hall of Fame attendance award. He wasn't great but he was there. Mussina's not there. He's walking away from the game. He's healthy and he's made his money. Now's he's done. He won't be like a Koufax or Pedro Martinez (two players Kaufman did not mention by name) who didn't/won't make it to 300 wins because their arms gave way. Mussina wasn't close to being in Pedro's or Sandy's class. And by not sticking around - he's not even in Sutton's class either. Winning 300 is not a magic ticket but the reason you leave the game should be a determining factor in Hall of Fame voting.

Gaylord Perry - Hall of Famer with 314 wins and ERA+ of 117 and 2 Cy Young Awards. Perry won 20 games or more on 5 occasions and led his league in wins 3 separate seasons. Mussina had one 20-win season and as will be repeatedly pointed out - never won a Cy Young Award.

Early Wynn - Hall of Famer and the poster boy for hanging around to get 300 wins. Wynn also won a Cy Young Award. It should be noted that Wynn left baseball in 1963 but was not voted into the Hall of Fame until 1972. Wynn had 300 wins and a Cy Young and yet he was made to wait to gain entry into the Hall. Some people are acting like Mike Mussina should not just be a Hall of Famer but a first ballot Hall of Famer. Has the disease of entitlement extended so far that now the very good players like Mussina feel entitled to join the greats of the game? I say no to Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame. And I say no again.

Tom Glavine - Kaufman says that Glavine is "a pitcher very much in Mussina's class" but that's pure BS. Glavine won 2 Cy Young Awards and was top 3 in voting for the award 6 times. In 5 spearate seasons Glavine led his league in wins and in 1995 he won the World Series MVP award. Mussina isn't close to being in Glavine's class.

Bert Blyleven - This guy has been made to wait to get into the Hall of Fame since he became eligible in 1997. On top of everything else - Blyleven is 5th on the all-time strikeout list and he acquitted himself very well in the playoffs. Blyleven has two World Series rings to Mussina's ZERO. Blyleven was 5-1 in 5 post season series with a 2.47 ERA. That's a run lower than Mussina's post season ERA. And have I mentioned that Blyleven hasn't been voted into the Hall of Fame? Yet Mike Mussina is supposed to waltz in? By all that's holy - don't let it be so.

Tom Seaver - He's one of the all-time greats. Mussina shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath. Shame on you King Kaufman for bringing up Tom Seaver.

Eddie Plank - Hall of Famer with 326 wins. Mentioning Plank is a complete misdirection by Kaufman. Plank was the first lefty in history with 300 wins but according to Kaufman's logic - if Mussina's aunt was his uncle then Mussina could have had as many wins as Plank.

Cy Young and Walter Johnson - you're kidding right?

Jamie Moyer - finally Kaufman names a player you could feel comfortable saying was not as good as Mike Mussina. So the whole argument for Mike Mussina getting into the Hall of fame comes down to the fact that he was better than Jamie Moyer? Yeesh.

As far as I'm concerned - Mike Mussina made over $144 million playing baseball. Now he gets to walk away from baseball, spend that money and spend time with his family. What he does not get is to walk into the Hall of Fame. He is not entitled to that. It is not the Hall of Very Good. As time passes - I guessing more and more people will come to their senses regarding Mike Mussina and the Hall of Fame.

Jim Thome for the Hall of Fame? Take II

SI's Tom Verducci has a very well thought out article on whether Jim Thome is Hall of Fame worthy. Verducci says "no".

I agree 100% with Verducci's reasoning and argument. However, I also agree with his disclaimer:

Thome, 37, may play three more seasons and finish his career with about 575 home runs and 1,600 RBIs. He's the kind of player, like the pre-steroid tested Palmeiro, whose greatness is an accumulated one, rather than one that is defined by a fabulous peak. Thome's power, even with the other limitations, ultimately may be too prolific to ignore.

Jim Thome - Hall of Famer?

Jim Thome just hit his 500th HR and now people are asking if Thome is a Hall of Fame player. Last February I looked at which active players should be considered as potential Hall of Fame players. Here's what I said about Thome:

Jim Thome - he'll probably finish in the top 25 in HR and the top 75 in RBI but I don't think that will be enough. Thome never even finished higher than 4th place in MVP voting. Nice guy but so was Andre Dawson.

I still stand by that assessment.

Yes Jim Thome is both an excellent hitter and just as good a person. However, as good as Thome is as a hitter consider that he only has one Silver Slugger award to his credit (given to the best hitter at each position). And that one Silver Slugger Thome won was for 3rd base in 1996! That means that for the past 10-years that the managers and coaches who vote for the Silver Slugger may have thought that though Thome was good he wasn't better than some other player. Each and every year since 1996.

Thome was a true "three outcome" hitter. When he got to the plate he usually either walked, hit a home run or struck out. In fact besides now being in the 500 HR club - Thome is 3rd on all-time strikeout list with 2,031 and counting and over 58% of the time he got an AB he either had one of those three outcomes. Three times Thome led the league in walks and three time he led the league in strikeouts. Maybe if he does get in the Hall of Fame his plaque should read, "He was a selective hitter who swung from his ass."

Craig Biggio - Hall of Famer

Craig Biggio announced that 2007 will be his last season. This should come as a surprise to nobody who has been paying attention. What is surprising is that some people still do not think Biggio is a Hall of Fame player.

Never mind the fact that he has 3,000 hits (which has always been a sure ticket to Cooperstown). Consider that Biggio was able to play three of the toughest positions in baseball (catcher, second base and centerfield) and play them at top levels. Consider that all-time he's currently 14th in runs scored (he'll probably finish his career in 12th place) and that all the players ahead of him on the list are Hall of Famers except Pete Rose, Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson. Consider that Biggio has more total bases than either Mickey Mantle or Mike Schmidt. Consider that when he's done only Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Pete Rose and Tris Speaker will have hit more doubles in baseball history. Consider that he has more extra-base hits than either Robin Yount or Paul Molitor. And consider that Biggio will probably finish his career with the record for being hit by a pitch.

How can anyone argue that Caig Biggio is not a Hall of Fame player?

Sammy Sosa and the Hall of Fame

If I had a vote for the baseball Hall of Fame - I'd vote no on Sammy Sosa. Everyone agrees that Sosa was no great shakes in the field (he's more likely to be called a liability than anything else). When you look at his offensive numbers only home runs and RBI stand out. Sosa doesn't have the batting average (.273), the hits (2,365), or even the slugging percentage you'd expect from a "slugger". His slugging percentage is behind contemporaries such as Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Larry Walker and Chipper Jones. The only thing Sosa is known for is hitting home runs but at what cost did those 600 HR come at?

With all the hype over his 600th HR - one thing I noticed is that nobody seemed to mention the fact that Sosa is second on the all-time strikeout list. Only Reggie Jackson has struck out more in the history of professional baseball. However, Jackson was known as Mr. October for coming through in the the clutch. Sosa, on the other hand, is known as a guy with a huge steroids cloud hanging over his head (and as a guy who suddenly forgot how to speak English when called in front of Congress).

For his career Sammy has struck out once every 3.8 AB. That means that for every HR they saw - Cubs fans had to grit their teeth through about 4 strike outs. Another way to put it is for every base you touch in a home run - Sosa sacrificed a strikeout in order to touch 'em all.

OPS+ is a stat that is used to compare hitters from different points in time. Sosa's career OPS+ of 128 (with 100 being exactly average) puts him in a tie with such names as Jim Rice, Moises Alou and David Justice. It also puts him behind players like John Olerud and Tim Salmon

EDIT: Kevin had some similar thoughts on Sosa

Future Hall of Famers - American League Edition

This morning I started wondering how many future Hall of Famers we may be watching in 2007. So I decided to take a peak at the rosters and here's what I came up with (note: I'm only talking about guys who are at least 3/4 of the way down the path - no Ryan Howards or other young guns need apply right now):

Baltimore: Miguel Tejada - potentially but I think he will be hurt by being implicated as a steroids guy by both Jose Canseco and Raphael Palmeiro. I'm going to say no to Tejada having a good shot at the HoF.

Boston: Manny Ramirez - first ballot. David Ortiz - needs a few more MVP type seasons. Curt Schilling? I think if Schilling gets to a combined 30 wins the next two seasons then he's a lock.

New York: Alex Rodriguez - first ballot. Derek Jeter - first ballot. Mariano Rivera - first ballot. Mike Mussina - questionable. The fact that he's never won 20-games in a season or a Cy Young award will probably keep him out.

Toronto: Frank Thomas - he's only 13 HR from 500 and when he reaches that mark he'll join Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Jimmy Foxx, Ted Williams, and Mel Ott as the only players with both 500 HR and a batting average over .300 (Thomas could go 0 for his first 100 AB in 2007 and still be over .300 for his career). Roy Halladay - he's a great pitcher but he'll be 30 this year and he's not even at 100 wins yet (plus he's too injury prone).

Chicago: Jim Thome - he'll probably finish in the top 25 in HR and the top 75 in RBI but I don't think that will be enough. Thome never even finished higher than 4th place in MVP voting. Nice guy but so was Andre Dawson.

Detroit: Ivan Rodriguez - maybe not first ballot because of steroid rumors but he gets in because people will argue that steroids did not help his defense (12 Gold Gloves). Gary Sheffield - could be another guy with 500 HR who does not get elected. I would put money on Sheffield NOT getting enough HoF votes to make it to Cooperstown.

Minnesota: Johan Santana - only 28 this season but so far he's been Pedroesque. He's got a .716 career winning percentage and two Cy Young Awards already.

Los Angeles: Vlade Guererro - he's agreat player but I don't hink his back will let him amass the numbrs needed for election. He's going to be 31 this season but he only has 338 career HR and only 1,052 career RBI. His career .325 batting average may make up for some of that shortfall but he needs probably 5 more seasons with 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Oakland: Mike Piazza - first ballot.

Seattle: Ichiro Suzuki makes and interesting case. He'll be 33 this season and has only been in the league for 6 seasons but when he plays - you can't keep your eyes off him. He may well be the best conditioned player in MLB too - so I think Ichiro amasses enough numbers to get voted in. For my money - he gets my vote today.

So in total - in the American League I think we are looking at 7 locks for the Hall of Fame (Manny, A-Rod, Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza and I-Rod) and probably three more players who will get in (Schilling, Santana and Ichiro).