[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sef/csefwp/487.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Markets: Evidence from Index Rebalancings

Author

Abstract
In this paper, we analyze how capital flows into the sovereign debt market affect government bond prices and liquidity. Additionally, we explore whether these flows spill over to the exchange rate. To address endogeneity concerns, we construct a measure of informationless capital Flows Implied by (mechanical) Rebalancings (FIR) in the largest local currency government debt index for emerging countries. We find that FIR is associated with higher returns on bonds and greater depth in the sovereign debt market after the rebalancings. These capital flows also impact the exchange rate market; larger inflows (outflows) are associated with greater currency appreciations (depreciations).

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2017. "Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Markets: Evidence from Index Rebalancings," CSEF Working Papers 487, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:487
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.csef.it/WP/wp487.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Hau & Massimo Massa & Joel Peress, 2010. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1681-1717, April.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    3. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    4. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2013. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(5), pages 1087-1145.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1901-1930 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Carlo Altavilla & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2017. "Bank Exposures and Sovereign Stress Transmission," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2103-2139.
    7. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    8. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Servén, Luis & Avdjiev, Stefan & Hardy, Bryan, 2017. "Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Serkan Arslanalp & Tigran Poghosyan, 2016. "Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(6), pages 45-67, June.
    10. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Cremers, Martijn & Ferreira, Miguel A. & Matos, Pedro & Starks, Laura, 2016. "Indexing and active fund management: International evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 539-560.
    12. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    13. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Williams, Tomas, 2012. "Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decoupling and financial recoupling," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2102-2126.
    14. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2013. "Debt levels, debt composition, and sovereign spreads in emerging and advanced economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 518-547, AUTUMN.
    15. Broner, Fernando A. & Gaston Gelos, R. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2006. "When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 203-230, June.
    16. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    17. Manuel Adelino & Igor Cunha & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3223-3268.
    18. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    20. Gennaioli, Nicola & Martin, Alberto & Rossi, Stefano, 2018. "Banks, government Bonds, and Default: What do the data Say?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 98-113.
    21. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2012. "Gross inflows gone wild : gross capital inflows, credit booms and crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6270, The World Bank.
    22. Yen-Cheng Chang & Harrison Hong & Inessa Liskovich, 2015. "Regression Discontinuity and the Price Effects of Stock Market Indexing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 212-246.
    23. Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai, 2012. "Asset Fire Sales and Purchases and the International Transmission of Funding Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2015-2050, December.
    24. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
    25. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    26. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2018. "Real Effects of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 2855-2896.
    27. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2017. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 563-585, August.
    28. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    29. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
    30. Tomas Williams, 2018. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4958-4994.
    31. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-829, September.
    32. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    33. Harald Hau, 2011. "Global versus Local Asset Pricing: A New Test of Market Integration," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3891-3940.
    34. Stijn Claessens & Yishay Yafeh, 2013. "Comovement of Newly Added Stocks with National Market Indices: Evidence from Around the World," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 203-227.
    35. Shanaka J. Peiris, 2013. "Foreign Participation In Local Currency Bond Markets Of Emerging Economies," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(03), pages 1-15.
    36. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    37. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    38. Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina, 2018. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis [Sovereign debt, government myopia and the financial sector]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 83-115.
    39. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Hao & Vayanos, Dimitri & Zheng, Lu, 2020. "Tracking biased weights: asset pricing implications of value-weighted indexing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118847, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Bathia, Deven & Bouras, Christos & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Cross-border capital flows and return dynamics in emerging stock markets: Relative roles of equity and debt flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2019. "Winners and losers from Sovereign debt inflows: evidence from the stock market," Economics Working Papers 1693, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Moretti,Matías & Pandolfi,Lorenzo & Schmukler,Sergio L. & Villegas Bauer,Germán & Williams,Tomás, 2024. "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10735, The World Bank.
    5. Mariana Escobar & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Alvaro Pedraza & Tomas Williams, 2021. "The Anatomy of Index Rebalancings: Evidence from Transaction Data," CSEF Working Papers 621, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 12 2021.
    6. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    7. Cormier, Benjamin & Naqvi, Natalya, 2023. "Delegating discipline: how indexes restructured the political economy of sovereign bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117248, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2022. "Large international corporate bonds: Investor behavior and firm responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Charles W. Calomiris & Mauricio Larrain & Sergio L. Schmukler & Tomas Williams, 2019. "Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses," NBER Working Papers 25979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Caramichael, John & Rapp, Andreas C., 2024. "The green corporate bond issuance premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Antonelli, Stefano & Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2022. "Benchmark effects from the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI EM index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021. "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. De Rossi, Giuliano & Steliaros, Michael, 2022. "The Shift from Active to Passive and its Effect on Intraday Stock Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Lucas A. Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    16. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66.
    17. Sebastian M. Saiegh & Glen Biglaiser, 2024. "The value of legal recourse in sovereign bond markets: Evidence from Argentina," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 669-709, September.
    18. Hillary Stein, 2022. "Got Milk? The Effect of Export Price Shocks on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 23-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    19. Bayront Yudit Rumondor & Pakasa Bary, 2020. "Capital Flows and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence From Indonesia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 33-53.
    20. Matteo Maggiori, 2021. "FX policy when financial markets are imperfect," BIS Working Papers 942, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Masahiro Inoguchi, 2021. "The impact of foreign capital flows on long‐term interest rates in emerging and advanced economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 268-295, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    2. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021. "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Tomas Williams, 2018. "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4958-4994.
    4. Moretti,Matías & Pandolfi,Lorenzo & Schmukler,Sergio L. & Villegas Bauer,Germán & Williams,Tomás, 2024. "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10735, The World Bank.
    5. Tomas Williams & Sergio Schmukler & Mauricio Larrain & Charles Calomiris, 2019. "Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses," Working Papers 2019-15, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2019. "Winners and losers from Sovereign debt inflows: evidence from the stock market," Economics Working Papers 1693, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2023. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(9), pages 3423-3462.
    8. Hau, Harald, 2014. "The exchange rate effect of multi-currency risk arbitrage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 304-331.
    9. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2022. "Large international corporate bonds: Investor behavior and firm responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Crosignani, Matteo & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Fonseca, Luís, 2020. "The (Unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 97-112.
    11. Itzhak Ben-DAVID & Francesco A. FRANZONI & Rabih MOUSSAWI & John SEDUNOV III, 2015. "The Granular Nature of Large Institutional Investors," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-67, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2016.
    12. Larrain, Borja & Muñoz, Daniel & Tessada, José, 2017. "Asset fire sales in equity markets: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 71-85.
    13. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. Pedraza, Alvaro & Pulga, Fredy & Vasquez, Jose, 2020. "Costly index investing in foreign markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Chinco, Alex & Sammon, Marco, 2024. "The passive ownership share is double what you think it is," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Li, Jie & Zhang, Yongjie & Feng, Xu & An, Yahui, 2019. "Which kind of investor causes comovement?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    18. Cristina Cella & Andrew Ellul & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2013. "Investors' Horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1607-1648.
    19. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    20. Peng, Cameron & Wang, Chen, 2021. "Factor demand and factor returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118884, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt; international capital flows; index rebalancings; mutual funds; benchmark indexes; exchange rate.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Maria Carannante (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cssalit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.