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Banks, Government Bonds, and Default: What do the Data Say?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Gennaioli
  • Alberto Martin
  • Stefano Rossi
Abstract
We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Banks, Government Bonds, and Default: What do the Data Say?," IMF Working Papers 2014/120, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/120
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; bank bondholdings; central bank; balance sheet; bank characteristic; Sovereign Risk; Sovereign Default; Government Bonds; bondholdings correspond; loan-to-asset ratio; Eurozone bank; bank level; bank assets; Bonds; Sovereign bonds; Loans; Stress testing; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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