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Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Galiani
  • Nadya Hajj
  • Patrick J. McEwan
  • Pablo Ibarraran
  • Nandita Krishnaswamy
Abstract
In a Honduran field experiment, sequences of cash transfers to poor households varied in amount of the largest (“peak”) and last (“end”) transfers. Larger peak-end transfers increased voter turnout and the incumbent party’s vote share in the 2013 presidential election, independently of cumulative transfers. A plausible explanation is that voters succumbed to a common cognitive bias by applying peak-end heuristics. Another is that voters deliberately used peak-end transfers to update beliefs about the incumbent party. In either case, the results provide experimental evidence on the classic non-experimental finding that voters are especially sensitive to recent economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Galiani & Nadya Hajj & Patrick J. McEwan & Pablo Ibarraran & Nandita Krishnaswamy, 2016. "Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment," NBER Working Papers 22588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22588
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Electoral reciprocity in programmatic redistribution: Experimental Evidence
      by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog on 2016-09-28 23:34:33

    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Lamberova, Natalia, 2021. "The puzzling politics of R&D: Signaling competence through risky projects," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 801-818.
    3. Ankush Goyal & Rajender Kumar, 2022. "Does Social Welfare Programmes Influence Households Trust in Local Administration and Their Political Participation? Evidence from the MGNREG Scheme in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 16(3), pages 602-617, December.
    4. Duchoslav, Jan & Kenamu, Edwin & Thunde, Jack, 2023. "Targeting hunger or votes? The political economy of humanitarian transfers in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Loewenthal, Amit & Miaari, Sami H. & Hoeffler, Anke, 2021. "Aid and Radicalization: The Case of Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza," IZA Discussion Papers 14265, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Felix Kersting, 2022. "Welfare Reform and Repression in an Autocracy: Bismarck and the Socialists," Working Papers 0227, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    7. Alexander James & Nathaly M. Rivera & Brock Smith, 2022. "Cash Transfer and Voter Turnout," Working Papers wp536, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    8. Jiménez, Bruno, 2023. "The Political economy of the minimum wage," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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