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Anti-Poverty Programs and Presidential Election Outcomes: Familias en Acción in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Oskar Nupia
Abstract
Using a comprehensive data set for Colombian municipalities between 2002 and 2010, in this paper we study the effects of large anti-poverty programs on presidential election outcomes. In particular, we test for two of the main assumptions on voters´ behavior adopted by the political economics literature. First, we examine whether the incumbent governing coalition has been politically rewarded due to the expansion exhibited by the program during the last decade. Second, we test whether voters have been willing to tradeoff their ideological attachments in exchange of a higher level of income - obtained through the cash transfer payments provided by the program. Our estimates correct for potential simultaneity problems previously identified by the literature in this field. Our results provide empirical support for both hypotheses and open the discussion on how to prevent the use of large anti-poverty programs for political purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Oskar Nupia, 2011. "Anti-Poverty Programs and Presidential Election Outcomes: Familias en Acción in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 8743, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:008743
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/8246/dcede2011-14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Sole-Olle & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro, 2008. "Does partisan alignment affect the electoral reward of intergovernmental transfers?," Working Papers in Economics 206, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    2. Albert Solé-Ollé & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro, 2008. "Does partisan alignment affect the electoral reward of intergovernmental transfers?," Working Papers 2008/2, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Albert Sole-Olle & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro, 2008. "Does partisan alignment affect the electoral reward of intergovernmental transfers?," Working Papers in Economics 206, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero & Mónica Ospina Londoño, 2018. "Social Assistance and Informality: Examining the Link in Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 21(1), pages 81-120, June.
    2. Sebastian Galiani & Nadya Hajj & Patrick J. McEwan & Pablo Ibarrarán & Nandita Krishnaswamy, 2019. "Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 232-260, August.
    3. Justino, Patricia & Martorano, Bruno, 2018. "Welfare spending and political conflict in Latin America, 1970–2010," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 98-110.
    4. Baez Ramirez,Javier Eduardo & Camacho,Adriana & Conover, Emily & Zarate,Roman Andres, 2012. "Conditional cash transfers, political participation, and voting behavior," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6215, The World Bank.
    5. Marina Dodlova & Anna Gioblas, 2017. "Regime type, inequality, and redistributive transfers in developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Julien Labonne, 2012. "The local electoral impacts of conditional cash transfers: Evidence from a field experiment," CSAE Working Paper Series 2012-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Sandra Polania-Reyes, 2016. "Disentangling Social Capital: Lab-in-the-Field Evidence on Coordination, Networks, and Cooperation," Artefactual Field Experiments 00565, The Field Experiments Website.
    8. Labonne, Julien, 2013. "The local electoral impacts of conditional cash transfers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 73-88.
    9. Armando Barrientos & Juan Miguel Villa, 2014. "Economic and political inclusion of human development conditional transfer programmes in Latin America?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 20014, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    10. Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Iván Higuera-Mendieta, 2018. "Notas sobre la economía política del Caribe colombiano," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 12(2), pages 7-41, December.
    11. Keefer, Philip & Scartascini, Carlos & Vlaicu, Razvan, 2022. "Demand-side determinants of public spending allocations: Voter trust, risk and time preferences," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    12. Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano, 2016. "Inequality, Distributive Beliefs and Protests: A Recent Story from Latin America," HiCN Working Papers 218, Households in Conflict Network.
    13. Julien Labonne, 2012. "The local electoral impacts of conditional cash transfers Evidence from a field experiment," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2012-09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Attanasio, Orazio & Polania-Reyes, Sandra & Pellerano, Luca, 2015. "Building social capital: Conditional cash transfers and cooperation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 22-39.
    15. Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano, 2017. "Welfare Spending and Political Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 256, Households in Conflict Network.
    16. Zimmermann, Laura V, 2015. "May There Be Victory: Government Election Performance and the World's Largest Public-Works Program," IZA Discussion Papers 9161, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Dodlova, Marina & Giolbas, Anna & Lay, Jann, 2016. "Non-Contributory Social Transfer Programmes in Developing Countries: A New Data Set and Research Agenda," GIGA Working Papers 290, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    voting; presidential elections; anti-poverty programs; electoral rewards; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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