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Modeling optimal quarantines under infectious disease related mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Aditya Goenka
  • Lin Liu
  • Manh-Hung Nguyen
Abstract
This paper studies optimal quarantines (can also be interpreted as lockdowns or selfisolation) when there is an infectious disease with SIS dynamics and infections can cause disease related mortality in a dynamic general equilibrium neoclassical growth framework. We characterize the optimal decision and the steady states and how these change with changes in effectiveness of quarantine, productivity of working from home, contact rate of disease and rate of mortality from the disease. A standard utilitarian welfare function gives the counter-intuitive result that increasing mortality reduces quarantines but increases mortality and welfare while economic outcomes and infections are largely unaffected. With an extended welfare function incorporating welfare loss due to disease related mortality (or infections generally) however, quarantines increase, and the decreasing infections reduce mortality and increase economic outcomes. Thus, there is no optimal trade-off between health and economic outcomes. We also study sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIS dynamics with disease related mortality - a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable

Suggested Citation

  • Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu & Manh-Hung Nguyen, 2020. "Modeling optimal quarantines under infectious disease related mortality," Working Papers 202025, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:liv:livedp:202025
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    Cited by:

    1. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2021. "SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2021. "COVID-19 and a Green Recovery?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2021. "Modeling optimal quarantines with waning immunity," TSE Working Papers 21-1206, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jul 2022.
    4. Xu, Shaofeng & Liu, Tao & Liu, Fengliang, 2024. "On the role of automation in an epidemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Bosi, Stefano & Camacho, Carmen & Desmarchelier, David, 2021. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. David Desmarchelier & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Guillaume Morel & Thi Kim Cuong Pham, 2021. "Infectious disease and endogenous cycles: lockdown hits two birds with one stone," Working Papers of BETA 2021-23, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Vahdani, Behnam & Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Thevenin, Simon & Meyer, Patrick & Dolgui, Alexandre, 2023. "Production-sharing of critical resources with dynamic demand under pandemic situation: The COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infectious diseases; Covid-19; SIS model; mortality; sufficiency conditions; economic growth; lockdown; quarantine; self-isolation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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