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Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?

Author

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  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Alexandru Minea

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract
This paper contributes to the literature on fiscal policy as a determinant of government bond spreads. We analyze the effect of government spending on government bond spreads using a panel of 30 emerging countries during the period 2000–2013. Based on system-GMM estimations, we find that total public spending does not affect government bond spreads. Instead, we reveal a composition effect: higher current spending (public investment) increase (decrease) government bond spreads. This result may arise due to the fact that current (less productive) spending may be associated with lower growth prospects, making investors to require higher premia. Finally, we unveil nonlinearities driven by the quality of institutions: in particular, good institutions support a more favorable impact of current spending on government bond spreads. Our findings suggest that governments of emerging countries can improve their international financing conditions by reducing current spending and supporting public investment.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Post-Print hal-02887274, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02887274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.03.025
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    Cited by:

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    2. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2023. "Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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