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State dependence in labor market fluctuations: evidence, theory, and policy implications

Author

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  • Pizzinelli, Carlo
  • Theodoridis, Konstantinos
  • Zanetti, Francesco
Abstract
This paper documents state dependence in labor market fluctuations. Using a Threshold Vector-Autoregression model, we establish that the unemployment rate, the job separation rate and the job finding rate exhibit a larger response to productivity shocks during periods with low aggregate productivity. A Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous job separation and on-the-job search replicates these empirical regularities well. The transition rates into and out of employment embed state dependence through the interaction of reservation productivity levels and the distribution of match-specific idiosyncratic productivity. State dependence implies that the effect of labor market reforms is different across phases of the business cycle. A permanent removal of layoff taxes is welfare enhancing in the long run, but it involves distinct short-run costs depending on the initial state of the economy. The welfare gain of a tax removal implemented in a low-productivity state is 4.9 percent larger than the same reform enacted in a state with high aggregate productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Pizzinelli, Carlo & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Zanetti, Francesco, 2018. "State dependence in labor market fluctuations: evidence, theory, and policy implications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90380, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:90380
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/90380/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    search and matching models; state dependence in business cycles; threshold vector autoregression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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