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Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin

Author

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Hausmann, Ricardo
  • Panizza, Ugo
Abstract
Notwithstanding announcements of progress, “international original sin†(the denomination of external debt in foreign currency) remains a persistent phenomenon in emerging markets. Although some middle-income countries have succeeded in developing markets in local-currency sovereign debt and attracting foreign investors, they continue to hedge their currency exposures through transactions with local pension funds and other resident investors. The result is to shift the locus of currency mismatches within emerging economies but not to eliminate them. Other countries have limited original sin by limiting external borrowing, passing up valuable investment opportunities in pursuit of stability. We document these trends, analyzing regional and global aggregates and national case studies. Our conclusion is that there remains a case for an international initiative to address currency risk in low- and middle-income economies so they can more fully exploit economic development opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry & Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2022. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," CEPR Discussion Papers 17691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17691
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    6. Fernández Tucci, Candelaria, 2023. "Original sin and South-South cooperation: Insights for the Mercosur from the experience of the Asian Bond Market Initiative," IPE Working Papers 214/2023, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    7. Carol Bertaut & Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Original sin redux: role of duration risk," BIS Working Papers 1109, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Mert Onen & Hyun Song Shin & Goetz von Peter, 2023. "Overcoming original sin: insights from a new dataset," BIS Working Papers 1075, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Bambe, Bao-We-Wal & Combes, Jean-Louis & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Gómez, Santiago & Noy, Ilan & Strobl, Eric, 2024. "Climate Change, Hurricanes, and Sovereign Debt in the Caribbean Basin," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13351, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Original sin; Currency mismatches; Debt crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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