[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1075.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Overcoming original sin: insights from a new dataset

Author

Listed:
  • Mert Onen
  • Hyun Song Shin
  • Goetz von Peter
Abstract
This paper introduces a new dataset on emerging market sovereign bonds, distinguishing between the currency of denomination and the residence of investors. Our dataset is on long-term government bonds and provides a more complete coverage of bonds issued in domestic markets. We document several salient trends. While a preponderance of foreign currency bonds is associated with greater holdings by foreign investors, the correlation is weak at best. Over time, emerging market governments have enhanced their ability to borrow abroad in their own currency, reducing their reliance on foreign currency debt. In this sense, EME sovereigns have made progress toward overcoming original sin. Nevertheless, the greater role of market and duration risk and the activity of foreign non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) mean that emerging markets remain subject to fluctuations in global financial conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mert Onen & Hyun Song Shin & Goetz von Peter, 2023. "Overcoming original sin: insights from a new dataset," BIS Working Papers 1075, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1075.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1075.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2020. "International Currencies and Capital Allocation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2019-2066.
    2. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Emerging market economy exchange rates and local currency bond markets amid the Covid-19 pandemic," BIS Bulletins 5, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Hausmann Ricardo & Panizza Ugo, 2011. "Redemption or Abstinence? Original Sin, Currency Mismatches and Counter Cyclical Policies in the New Millennium," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-35, August.
    4. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    5. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    6. Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2019. "The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 174-208, July.
    7. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    8. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2022. "Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4587-4629.
    9. Fang, Xiang & Hardy, Bryan & Lewis, Karen K., 2022. "Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 17338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2001. "Monetary policy in a dollarized economy where balance sheets matter," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 445-464, December.
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2023. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-42, February.
    12. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E., 2007. "Foreign participation in local currency bond markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-304.
    13. Hale, Galina B. & Jones, Peter C. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2020. "Home currency issuance in international bond markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2018. "Currency matters: Analyzing international bond portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 376-388.
    15. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    16. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2022. "Risk capacity, portfolio choice and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 1031, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Peter Hördahl & Ilhyock Shim, 2020. "EME bond portfolio flows and long-term interest rates during the Covid-19 pandemic," BIS Bulletins 18, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Branimir Gruic & Philip Wooldridge, 2012. "Enhancements to the BIS debt securities statistics," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    19. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Dimitris Drakopoulos & Rohit Goel & Mr. Robin Koepke, 2020. "Benchmark-Driven Investments in Emerging Market Bond Markets: Taking Stock," IMF Working Papers 2020/192, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mr. Philip R. Lane & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2017. "International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2017/115, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2014/039, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373, April.
    23. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1027-1070, June.
    24. Yavuz Arslan & Mathias Drehmann & Boris Hofmann, 2020. "Central bank bond purchases in emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 20, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gerding, Felix & Hartley, Jonathan S., 2024. "De-dollarization? Not so fast," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    2. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter & Sonya Zhu, 2024. "International finance through the lens of BIS statistics: the global reach of currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    3. Fang, Xiang & Hardy, Bryan & Lewis, Karen K., 2022. "Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 17338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Carol Bertaut & Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Original sin redux: role of duration risk," BIS Working Papers 1109, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Fabio Grieco & Henri de La Guéronnière & Clément Marsilli & Quentin Paul & Sophie Rivaud, 2023. "Financing the climate and ecological transition in emerging economies [Financer la transition climatique et écologique dans les économies émergentes]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 245.
    6. Bryan Hardy & Goetz von Peter, 2023. "Global liquidity: a new phase?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    7. Gaston Gelos & Pietro Patelli & Ilhyock Shim, 2024. "The US dollar and capital flows to EMEs," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    8. Avdjiev, Stefan & Burger, John D. & Hardy, Bryan, 2024. "New spare tires: local currency credit as a global shock absorber," CEPR Discussion Papers 19288, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Maeng, F. S., 2024. "Default, Inflation Expectations, and the Currency Denomination of Sovereign Bonds," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2438, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Bambe, Bao-We-Wal & Combes, Jean-Louis & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Jieun Lee, 2023. "Dollar and government bond liquidity: evidence from Korea," BIS Working Papers 1145, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2018. "Currency matters: Analyzing international bond portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 376-388.
    2. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2019. "The effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Agustín Bénétrix & Beren Demirölmez & Martin Schmitz, 2024. "The Shock Absorbing Role of Cross-border Investments: Net Positions Versus Currency Composition," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 363-394, April.
    4. Carol Bertaut & Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Original sin redux: role of duration risk," BIS Working Papers 1109, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2017. "Overcoming the Original Sin: Gains from Local Currency External Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_27, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    6. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Egemen Eren & Philip Wooldridge, 2022. "The role of non-bank financial institutions in cross-border spillovers," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 129.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2023. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-42, February.
    9. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Original sin redux and deviations from covered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Stefan Avdjiev & Bryan Hardy & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Luis Servén, 2022. "Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates, and Sovereigns," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 2098-2135.
    11. Aizenman, J. & Jinjarak, Y. & Park, D. & Zheng, H., 2021. "Good-bye original sin, hello risk on-off, financial fragility, and crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy & Sanchez-Jabba, Andres, 2024. "The effects of foreign investor composition on Colombia's sovereign debt flows," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    13. Gegenfurtner, Dennis Andreas, 2021. "The causes of Original Sin: An empirical investigation of emerging market and developing countries," IPE Working Papers 174/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    14. Cortina, Juan J. & Didier, Tatiana & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Global corporate debt during crises: Implications of switching borrowing across markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Servén, Luis & Avdjiev, Stefan & Hardy, Bryan, 2017. "Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Mizen, Paul & Packer, Frank & Remolona, Eli & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2021. "Original sin in corporate finance: New evidence from Asian bond issuers in onshore and offshore markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    17. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Lucía Arango-Lozano & Geraldine Castelblanco & Nicolás Fajardo-Baquero & Maria A. Ruiz-Sanchez, 2022. "The effects of Monetary Policy on Capital Flows A Meta-Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1204, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Fernando Eguren Martin & Mark Joy & Claudia Maurini & Alessandro Moro & Valerio Nispi Landi & Alessandro Schiavone & Carlos van Hombeeck, 2020. "Capital flows during the pandemic: lessons for a more resilient international financial architecture," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 589, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    20. Maeng, F. S., 2024. "Default, Inflation Expectations, and the Currency Denomination of Sovereign Bonds," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2438, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging market economies; sovereign bonds; international lending; international financial markets; foreign investors; original sin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.