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The Fractured-Land Hypothesis

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  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús
  • Koyama, Mark
  • Lin, Youhong
  • Sng, Tuan-Hwee
Abstract
Patterns of political unification and fragmentation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that ``fractured land'' was responsible for China's tendency toward political unification and Europe's protracted political fragmentation. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of ``fractured land'' on state formation in Eurasia. We find that either topography or productive land alone is sufficient to account for China's recurring political unification and Europe's persistent political fragmentation. The existence of a core region of high land productivity in Northern China plays a central role in our simulations. We discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes and assess how robust our findings are.

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  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koyama, Mark & Lin, Youhong & Sng, Tuan-Hwee, 2020. "The Fractured-Land Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 15209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15209
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    3. Mark Koyama, 2021. "Hilton L. Root: Network Origins of the Global Economy: East vs. West in a Complex Systems Perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(3), pages 533-535, June.
    4. Chu, Angus C. & Peretto, Pietro F. & Furukawa, Yuichi, 2024. "Political fragmentation versus a unified empire in a Malthusian economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 284-293.
    5. Kitamura, Shuhei & Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter, 2021. "Cities, Conflict, and Corridors," OSF Preprints cfrzs, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Europe; Great divergence; State capacity; Political fragmentation; Political centralization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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