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The victims of neoliberal globalisation and the rise of the populist vote: a comparative analysis of three recent electoral decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Essletzbichler
  • Franziska Disslbacher
  • Mathias Moser
Abstract
Recent presidential elections in the US and Austria as well as the referendum on Brexit in the UK delivered victories or near-victories for populist right-wing candidates or agendas. In all three cases, globalisation and European integration were blamed for higher immigration and pressure on public services, deindustrialisation and job losses, and the attack on traditional values by cosmopolitan elites supported by traditional centre parties that have been unable or unwilling to control those processes. While election analysts seek to explain voting behaviour with socio-demographic characteristics of individuals, individual voting preferences also depend on the geographical context in which decisions are made. This article thus examines how long-term, regional structural economic changes, the varying impact of the Great Recession on the rise of and recovery from regional unemployment and current regional economic conditions, such as unemployment and welfare benefit losses, affect regional vote shares. In addition to those economic conditions, we examine the impact of immigration and urban size on populist vote shares. We show that regions with low, but rising immigrant shares, old industrial regions, smaller regions, those whose labour markets were exposed more and recovered less from the Great Recession, and those with high unemployment rates and benefit losses exhibited higher populist vote shares. These results are largely consistent across the three case study countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Essletzbichler & Franziska Disslbacher & Mathias Moser, 2018. "The victims of neoliberal globalisation and the rise of the populist vote: a comparative analysis of three recent electoral decisions," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 11(1), pages 73-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:11:y:2018:i:1:p:73-94.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cjres/rsx025
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra, 2021. "Does Cohesion Policy reduce EU discontent and Euroscepticism?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 354-369, February.
    2. Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2020. "The geography of EU discontent," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 737-753, June.
    3. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.
    4. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Dávila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-behind versus unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline and the rise of populism in the USA and Europe," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 951-977.
    5. Luise Koeppen & Dimitris Ballas & Arjen Edzes & Sierdjan Koster, 2021. "Places that don't matter or people that don't matter? A multilevel modelling approach to the analysis of the geographies of discontent," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 221-245, April.
    6. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2017. "The revenge of the places that don’t matter (and what to do about it)," CEPR Discussion Papers 12473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Terrero-Dávila, Javier & Lee, Neil, 2023. "Left-behind vs. unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline, and the rise of populism in the US and Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 18049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Dylan S Connor & Aleksander K BergArizona & Tom Kemeny & Peter J Kedron, 2024. "Who gets left behind by left behind places?," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 17(1), pages 37-58.
    9. Tomasz Herodowicz & Barbara Konecka-Szydłowska & Paweł Churski & Robert Perdał, 2021. "Political Divisions and Socio-Economic Disparities in Poland: A Geographical Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Panagiotis Artelaris & George Mavrommatis, 2021. "The role of economic and cultural changes in the rise of far‐right in Greece: A regional analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 353-369, April.
    11. Bram van Vulpen, 2020. "Rethinking The Regional Bounds Of Justice: A Scoping Review Of Spatial Justice In Eu Regions," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 14(2), pages 5-34, DECEMBER.
    12. Fulya Apaydin & Ferit Serkan Öngel & Jonas W. Schmid & Erol Ülker, 2022. "When do workers support executive aggrandizement? Lessons from the recent Turkish experience," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 142-159, March.
    13. Roger Beecham & Nick Williams & Alexis Comber, 2020. "Regionally-structured explanations behind area-level populism: An update to recent ecological analyses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, March.
    14. Ander Audikana & Vincent Kaufmann, 2022. "TOWARDS GREEN POPULISM? Right‐wing Populism and Metropolization in Switzerland," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 136-156, January.
    15. Enrique López-Bazo, 2021. "Does regional growth affect public attitudes towards the European Union?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(3), pages 755-778, June.
    16. Richard Waldron, 2021. "Housing, place and populism: Towards a research agenda," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(5), pages 1219-1229, August.
    17. Maximilian Benner & Michaela Trippl & Robert Hassink, 2024. "Sustainable and inclusive development in left-behind places," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 44(3), pages 237-249, September.
    18. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    19. Alessandra Faggian & Marco Modica & Félix Modrego & Giulia Urso, 2021. "One country, two populist parties: Voting patterns of the 2018 Italian elections and their determinants," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 397-413, April.
    20. Maria Greve & Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2023. "Long‐term decline of regions and the rise of populism: The case of Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 409-445, March.
    21. Sebastien Bourdin & André Torre, 2023. "Geography of contestation: A study on the Yellow Vest movement and the rise of populism in France," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 214-235, January.
    22. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2021. "Globalization, robotization, and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 86-111, January.
    23. Susan Baker & Matthew J. Quinn, 2022. "Populism, Austerity and Governance for Sustainable Development in Troubled Times: Introduction to Special Issue," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.
    24. Kenny, Michael & Luca, Davide, 2021. "The urban-rural polarisation of political disenchantment: an investigation of social and political attitudes in 30 European countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112683, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    25. Maximilian Benner, 2023. "Making spatial evolution work for all? A framework for inclusive path development," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(3), pages 445-462.

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