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Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections

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  • Pinar Deniz
  • Burhan Can Karahasan
  • Mehmet Pinar
Abstract
Electoral politics and regional variation in socio‐economic conditions of individuals receive huge interest in countries with sizable political tension. Even though Turkey has undergone a combination of periods of economic success and a period of economic and political turmoil, it has been governed by a single political party during the last two decades—Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP)— Justice and Development Party. This paper examines the determinants of the variation in regional vote shares of AKP between the 2002 and 2018 parliamentary elections using panel data estimation method—effects—which allows us to account for time invariant region‐specific unobserved fixed effects. Our findings demonstrate that inflation, unemployment, per capita GDP growth, provision of healthcare, industrial sector growth rates, change in the ageing of the population and rate of absenteeism (voter turnout) are essential factors in voters' decisions. Our additional results reveal that the effects of socio‐economic factors on the AKP vote shares were distinctly different for the AKP stronghold provinces and the eastern regions that are mostly populated with Kurdish, suggesting that ideological position of the voters also play an essential role in voters' response to the changes in socio‐economic conditions. La política electoral y la variación regional de las condiciones socioeconómicas de los individuos suscitan un enorme interés en los países con tensiones políticas considerables. Aunque Turquía ha pasado por una combinación de períodos de éxito económico y un período de agitación económica y política, durante las dos últimas décadas ha sido gobernada por un único partido político: Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP), el Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo. Este artículo examina los determinantes de la variación de las cuotas de voto regionales del AKP entre las elecciones parlamentarias de 2002 y de 2018, mediante la utilización del método de estimación de datos de panel (efectos) que permite tener en cuenta los efectos fijos no observados específicos por región invariantes en el tiempo. Nuestros resultados demuestran que la inflación, el desempleo, el crecimiento del PIB per cápita, la prestación de asistencia sanitaria, las tasas de crecimiento del sector industrial, el cambio en el envejecimiento de la población y la tasa de ausentismo (participación electoral) son factores esenciales en las decisiones de los votantes. Los resultados adicionales revelan que los efectos de los factores socioeconómicos sobre las cuotas de voto del AKP fueron claramente diferentes en las provincias bastión del AKP que en las regiones orientales de mayoría kurda, lo que sugiere que la posición ideológica de los votantes también desempeña un papel esencial en la respuesta de los votantes a los cambios en las condiciones socioeconómicas. 大きな政治的緊張がある国では、選挙政治や個人の社会経済的状況の地域間の差が大きな関心を集めている。トルコは、経済的成功の時代と経済的・政治的混乱の時代が重なったにもかかわらず、過去二十年の間、単一の政党、Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP:公正発展党)が支配してきた。本稿では、2002年と2018年の議会選挙の間のAKPの地域の得票率の変動の決定要因を、時不変の地域別の観測不能な固定効果を考慮することができる、パネルデータ推定法を用いて検討する。知見から、インフレ、失業、一人当たりGDP成長率、医療提供、産業部門別成長率、住民の高齢化の変化及び不在者投の割合 (投票率)が有権者の決定に不可欠な要因であることが実証される。さらに、AKPの投票率に対する社会経済的要因の影響は、AKPの本拠地である州とクルド人が多い東部地域では明らかに異なっていることから、有権者のイデオロギー的位置も社会経済的状況の変化に対する有権者の反応に重要な役割を果たしていることが示唆される。

Suggested Citation

  • Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:323-352
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12383
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