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The cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries: Does the lender matter?

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  • Galindo, Arturo J.
  • Panizza, Ugo
Abstract
The paper shows that international government borrowing from multilateral development banks is countercyclical while international government borrowing from private sector lenders is procyclical. The countercyclicality of multilateral development bank (MDB) lending is mostly driven by the behavior of the World Bank (borrowing from regional development banks tends to be acyclical). The paper also shows that MDB lending to Latin America and East Asia is more countercyclical than MDB lending to other regions. Private sector lending is instead procyclical in all developing regions. While the cyclicality of MDB lending does not depend on domestic or international conditions, private lending becomes particularly procyclical in periods of limited global capital flows. By focusing on both borrower and lender heterogeneity, the paper shows that the cyclical properties of international government debt are mostly driven by credit supply shocks. Demand factors appear to be less important drivers of procyclical international government borrowing. The focus on supply and demand factors is different from the traditional push and pull classification, as push and pull factors could affect both the demand and the supply of international government debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Galindo, Arturo J. & Panizza, Ugo, 2018. "The cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries: Does the lender matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 119-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:112:y:2018:i:c:p:119-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.08.007
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    2. Avellán, Leopoldo & Galindo, Arturo J. & Lotti, Giulia, 2021. "Sovereign external borrowing and multilateral lending in crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 206-238.
    3. Francesca Castellani & Marcelo Olarreaga & Ugo Panizza & Yue Zhou, 2018. "Investment Gaps in IDB Borrowing Countries," IHEID Working Papers 03-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Avellán, Leopoldo & Galindo, Arturo J. & Gómez, Tomás & Lotti, Giulia, 2024. "The cyclicality of official bilateral lending: Which cycle do flows follow?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Galindo, Arturo J. & Panizza, Ugo, 2018. "The cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries: Does the lender matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 119-135.
    6. Degl’Innocenti, Marta & Frigerio, Marco & Zhou, Si, 2022. "Development banks and the syndicate structure: Evidence from a world sample," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 99-120.
    7. Chiara Broccolini & Giulia Lotti & Alessandro Maffioli & Andrea F Presbitero & Rodolfo Stucchi, 2021. "Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 521-543.
    8. Gurara, Daniel & Presbitero, Andrea & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2020. "Borrowing costs and the role of multilateral development banks: Evidence from cross-border syndicated bank lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Fleiss, Pablo, 2021. "Multilateral development banks in Latin America: Recent trends, the response to the pandemic, and the forthcoming role," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 46916, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Avellán, Leopoldo & Galindo, Arturo J. & Lotti, Giulia, 2022. "Following public finances: The mirage of MDBs countercyclicality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 372-385.
    11. Bisogno, Marcelo & Fleiss, Pablo & Artecona, Raquel, 2019. "Financing development in Latin America and the Caribbean: The role and perspectives of multilateral development banks," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 44608, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Gong, Di & Xu, Jiajun & Yan, Jianye, 2023. "National development banks and loan contract terms: Evidence from syndicated loans," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Schclarek, Alfredo & Xu, Jiajun, 2022. "Exchange rate and balance of payment crisis risks in the global development finance architecture," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International government debt; Capital flows; Fiscal policy; International financial institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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