[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/62770.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature

Author

Listed:
  • Koepke, Robin
Abstract
This paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on the drivers of capital flows to emerging markets. The empirical evidence is structured based on the recognition that the drivers of capital flows vary over time and across different types of capital flows. The drivers are classified using the traditional “push vs. pull” framework, which is augmented by a distinction between cyclical and structural factors. Push factors are found to matter most for portfolio flows, somewhat less for banking flows, and least for FDI. Pull factors matter for all three components, but most for banking flows. A historical perspective suggests that the recent literature may have overemphasized the importance of cyclical factors at the expense of longer-term structural trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62770/1/MPRA_paper_62770.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73269/8/MPRA_paper_73269.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75887/15/MPRA_paper_75887.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
    2. Hooper, Vince & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "The determinants of capital inflows: Does opacity of recipient country explain the flows?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-48, March.
    3. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    4. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    5. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    6. Tony Addison & Almas Heshmati, 2003. "The New Global Determinants of FDI Flows to Developing Countries: The Importance of ICT and Democratization," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-45, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "Capital Inflows to Latin America: The 1970s and 1990s," International Economic Association Series, in: Edmar L. Bacha (ed.), Economics in a Changing World, chapter 6, pages 123-148, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3440-3455, December.
    9. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "Capital-Account Liberalization as a Signal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 138-154, March.
    10. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    11. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    13. Klein, Michael W. & Rosengren, Eric, 1994. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States : Relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 373-389, May.
    14. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    15. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    16. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    17. Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Capital Flows and Financial Sector Development in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 13, pages 431-466, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
    20. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    22. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    23. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    24. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2004. "The merits of horizontal versus vertical FDI in the presence of uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 125-148, January.
    25. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    26. Gastanaga, Victor M. & Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Pashamova, Bistra, 1998. "Host Country Reforms and FDI Inflows: How Much Difference do they Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1299-1314, July.
    27. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2014. "Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows," IMF Working Papers 2014/069, International Monetary Fund.
    28. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    29. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
    30. Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "When Is US Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 171-196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    32. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E., 2007. "Foreign participation in local currency bond markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-304.
    33. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    34. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    35. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    36. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    37. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2002. "FDI to Africa: The role of price stability and currency instability," MPRA Paper 13872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    39. Baek, In-Mee, 2006. "Portfolio investment flows to Asia and Latin America: Pull, push or market sentiment?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 363-373, April.
    40. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "Financial flows, financial crises, and global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 469-480.
    41. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    42. Sabine Herrmann & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2013. "The determinants of cross-border bank flows to emerging markets," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(3), pages 479-508, July.
    43. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 1993. "Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 1993/034, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Sebastian Edwards, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High Frequency Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 18557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    46. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    47. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? a Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 1996/058, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    49. K. Sandar Kyaw & Ronald Macdonald, 2009. "Capital Flows and Growth in Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 101-122.
    50. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    51. Claudia M. Buch, 2002. "Are Banks Different? Evidence from International Data," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-114.
    52. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    53. Sebastian Edwards, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, the Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High-Frequency Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 151-184, December.
    54. Serge Jeanneau & Marian Micu, 2002. "Determinants of international bank lending to emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 112, Bank for International Settlements.
    55. Koepke, Robin, 2014. "Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 63519, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Apr 2015.
    56. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, September.
    57. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Hausmann, Ricardo, 2001. "Is foreign direct investment a safer form of financing?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 34-49, March.
    58. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    59. Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Leonardo Hernández & Ms. Pamela Melado, 2001. "Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's: Is there Evidence of Contagion?," IMF Working Papers 2001/064, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    61. Andrew Abbott & David O. Cushman & Glauco De Vita, 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 95-107, February.
    62. Nasha Ananchotikul & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/156, International Monetary Fund.
    63. Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2011/092, International Monetary Fund.
    64. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. international equity investment and past prospective returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    65. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2008. "Bank health and lending to emerging markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    2. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, April.
    3. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    4. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    5. Noha Emara & Ayah El Said, 2021. "Sovereign ratings, foreign direct investment and contagion in emerging markets: Does being a BRICS country matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5217-5234, October.
    6. Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Raul Ibarra & Isela-Elizabeth Tellez-Leon, 2020. "Are all types of capital flows driven by the same factors? Evidence from Mexico," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 461-502, July.
    8. Eleonora Cavallaro & Eleonora Cutrini, 2018. "Institutional quality and cross-border asset trade: are banks less worried about diversification abroad?," Working Papers in Public Economics 186, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    9. Koepke, Robin, 2014. "Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 63519, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Apr 2015.
    10. Emara, Noha & El Said, Aya, 2019. "Sovereign Ratings, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Contagion: The Case of Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 94504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cavallaro, Eleonora & Cutrini, Eleonora, 2019. "Distance and beyond: What drives financial flows to emerging economies?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 533-550.
    12. Koepke, Robin, 2018. "Fed policy expectations and portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 170-194.
    13. Kim, Kyungkeun & Lee, Dongwon, 2020. "Equity market integration and portfolio rebalancing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    15. Broos, Menno & Ghalanos, Michalis & Kennedy, Bernard & Landbeck, Alexander & Lerner, Christina & Menezes, Paula & Schiavone, Alessandro & Tilley, Thomas & Viani, Francesca & Reinhardt, Dennis & Metzem, 2016. "Dealing with large and volatile capital flows and the role of the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 180, European Central Bank.
    16. Rogelio V. Mercado, 2023. "Bilateral capital flows: Gravity, push and pull," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 36-63, April.
    17. Lepers, Etienne & Mercado, Rogelio, 2021. "Sectoral capital flows: Covariates, co-movements, and controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
    19. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2019. "Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-264.
    20. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinants of EM Capital Flows; Push and Pull; FDI; Portfolio Flows; Bank Lending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.