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Private and public debt interlinkages in bad times

Author

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  • Bernardini, Marco
  • Forni, Lorenzo
Abstract
Drawing on a large sample of recession episodes, we document that those preceded by larger buildups in private debt tend to be followed by larger accumulations of public debt. Similarly to recessions preceded by a rapid run-up in public debt, these ex-post public debt buildups are associated with a more muted growth in government expenditures and a sharper rise in fiscal stress. The documented pattern becomes particularly intense in financial crises and emerges in both low and high public debt environments. These empirical regularities suggest that private sector indebtedness should be considered a relevant factor in the assessment of the soundness of the fiscal position.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardini, Marco & Forni, Lorenzo, 2020. "Private and public debt interlinkages in bad times," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:109:y:2020:i:c:s0261560620301959
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102239
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    Cited by:

    1. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
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    3. Eduardo Cavallo & Eduardo Fernández Arias, 2023. "Strong External Balance Sheets for Resilient Economies," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 5-36, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. João Ayres & Anna Gelpern & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: In Need of a New Approach," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 10, pages 223-254, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Leandro Andrián & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Past the Tipping Point? Assessing Debt Overhang in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 183-196, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. María Cecilia Acevedo & Leandro Andrián & Victoria Nuguer & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Understanding the Rise in Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 67-94, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "The Bottom Line on Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 13, pages 309-318, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. María Cecilia Acevedo & Vanessa Alviarez & Joaquin Lennon Sabatini, 2023. "Managing Private Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 11, pages 255-284, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Elizabeth J. Casabianca, 2020. "Credit Supply Response to Non-Performing Loans: Some Evidence From the Italian Banking System," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-3.
    12. Maria Malmierca-Ordoqui & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Lorenzo Bermejo, 2024. "Private and public debt convergence: a fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 161-183, February.
    13. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    14. Paraskevi K. Salamaliki & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2024. "Fiscal Space and Policy Response to Financial Crises: Market Access and Deficit Concerns," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 323-361, April.
    15. Leopoldo Avellán & Arturo Galindo & Giulia Lotti, 2023. "Official Creditors: Providing More than Money," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 161-182, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Juan Manuel Hernández & Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Debt Sustainability: More Important than Ever," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 5, pages 95-122, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "The Debt Conundrum," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 1, pages 1-4, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Rodrigo Heresi & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities in the Wake of the Pandemic," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 12, pages 285-308, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo, 2023. "Domestic Bond Markets: Successes and Challenges," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 3, pages 37-66, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. João Tovar Jalles & Paulo Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth after Debt Surges," Working Papers REM 2022/0244, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    21. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Management," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 123-160, Inter-American Development Bank.
    23. Powell, Andrew & Valencia, Oscar, 2023. "Dealing with Debt: Less Risk for More Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 12664, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Recessions; Recoveries; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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