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On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey Frankel
  • Carlos A. Vegh
  • Guillermo Vuletin
Abstract
In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging and developing countries have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating the underlying business cycle. We show that, over the last decade, about a third of the developing world has been able to escape the procyclicality trap and actually become countercyclical. We then focus on the role played by the quality of institutions, which appears to be a key determinant of a country's ability to graduate. We show that, even after controlling for the endogeneity of institutions and other determinants of fiscal procyclicality, there is a causal link running from stronger institutions to less procyclical or more countercyclical fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Frankel & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2012. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," CID Working Papers 248, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:248
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Institutional Quality; Cyclicality; Graduation; Emerging Marke;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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