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The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes

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  • CHRISTIAN FRIEDRICH
  • PIERRE GUÉRIN
Abstract
We first propose a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong equity and bond flows using estimates from a regime‐switching model that keeps context‐ and sample‐specific assumptions to a minimum. We then assess the impacts of U.S. stock market volatility (VIX) and U.S. monetary policy shocks on equity and bond flow episodes. Our results indicate that the impacts of both shocks differ across in‐ and outflow episodes and, based on an assessment of equity flows, vary considerably over time. While VIX shocks are mostly associated with asymmetric impacts across episodes, U.S. monetary policy shocks generate such asymmetries primarily over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 969-1003, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:52:y:2020:i:5:p:969-1003
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12614
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    Cited by:

    1. Tae Soo Kang & Kyunghun Kim, 2019. "Push vs.  Pull Factors of Capital Flows Revisited: A Cross-country Analysis," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 39-60, Winter/Sp.
    2. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2021. "Capital flow waves—or ripples? Extreme capital flow movements since the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Avdjiev, Stefan & Hale, Galina, 2019. "U.S. monetary policy and fluctuations of international bank lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 251-268.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2021. "Macroeconomic policy under a managed float: a simple integrated framework," BIS Working Papers 964, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Ahmet Ihsan Kaya & Lutfi Erden & Ibrahim Ozkan, 2022. "Detecting capital flow surges in developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3510-3530, July.
    6. Fischer, Andreas M. & Greminger, Rafael P. & Grisse, Christian & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2021. "Portfolio rebalancing in times of stress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Soohyon Kim, 2018. "Determinants of Capital Flows in the Korean Bond Market," Working Papers 2018-44, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    8. Janus, Jakub, 2022. "Cross-border flights to safe assets in bond markets: evidence from emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 113875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dhar, Amrita, 2021. "Identification of Extreme Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 359-384.
    10. Janus, Jakub, 2023. "Flights to safe assets in bond markets: Evidence from emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Sangyup Choi & Jiri Havel, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Foreign Portfolio Investment: A Tale of Advanced and Emerging Markets," Working papers 2023rwp-221, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    12. Mélina London & Maéva Silvestrini, 2023. "US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: the Trade Credit Channel," Working papers 915, Banque de France.

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    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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