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Optimal Lifecycle Fertility in a Barro Becker Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Pestieau

    (CREPP - Center of Research in Public Economics and Population Economics - Université de Liège, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Grégory Ponthière

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract
Parenthood postponement is a key demographic trend of the last three decades. In order to rationalize that stylized fact, we extend the canonical model by Barro and Becker (1989) to include two - instead of one reproduction periods. We examine how the cost structure of early and late children in terms of time and goods a¤ects the optimal fertility timing. Then, focusing a stationary equilibrium with stationary population, we provide two alternative explanations for the observed postponement of births: (1) a fall of the direct cost of late children (thanks to medical advances); (2) a rise in hourly productivity, which increases the (relative) opportunity costs of early children in comparison to late children.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "Optimal Lifecycle Fertility in a Barro Becker Economy," PSE Working Papers halshs-00676500, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00676500
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00676500
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ermisch, John & Ogawa, Naohiro, 1994. "Age at Motherhood in Japan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 393-420, November.
    2. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2014. "Optimal fertility along the life cycle," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 185-224, January.
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    17. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00944864 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Ponthiere, 2016. "The contribution of improved joint survival conditions to living standards: an equivalent consumption approach," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 46(2), pages 407-449, February.
    2. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    3. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2014. "Optimal fertility along the life cycle," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 185-224, January.
    4. de la Croix, David & Pommeret, Aude, 2021. "Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Andras Simonovits, 2015. "Optimal Child-Related Transfers and Personal Income Tax with Endogenous Fertility," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1524, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    6. Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2016. "Long-term care and births timing," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 340-357.
    7. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Nicolas Abad & Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "New fertility patterns: The role of human versus physical capital," AMSE Working Papers 2416, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    9. Andras Simonovits, 2015. "Socially Optimal Child-Related Transfers and Personal Income Tax with Endogenous Fertility," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1537, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    10. Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Postponement, career development and fertility rebound," AMSE Working Papers 2225, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Birth Timing; Population; Dynastic Altruism; OLG Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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