[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-01245523.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Avoir un enfant plus tard: Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances

Author

Listed:
  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Angela Luci Greulich

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Grégory Ponthière

    (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract
Les évolutions de la natalité sont le plus souvent appréhendées à l'aune d'un unique indicateur, le nombre d'enfants par femme. Pourtant, le calendrier des naissances, c'est-à-dire les âges auxquels une mère donne naissance à ses enfants, éclaire utilement les dynamiques sociodémographiques. L'âge de la maternité se révèle, en particulier, être un marqueur social car il s'accroît avec les niveaux d'éducation et de revenus des parents. Aujourd'hui, parmi celles ayant le moins de perspectives sociales, on trouve souvent des filles-mères. Force est de constater que le calendrier des naissances est naturellement lié aux autres décisions importantes qui rythment le cycle de vie : nombre d'enfants, bien sûr, mais aussi temps consacré aux études et rôle des femmes sur le marché du travail. Même si on a trop souvent tendance à s'alarmer du report des naissances, les âges de la maternité ne sont pas des variables ni des objectifs des politiques publiques ; c'est plutôt le contraire : ils réagissent indirectement à certaines politiques, et peuvent de ce fait en annihiler les effets. Dans cet opuscule, le calendrier des naissances sert à lire certaines dynamiques sociales, économiques et démographiques propres aux sociétés européennes et, en particulier, aux sociétés française et allemande. Nous mettons en perspective le phénomène de report des naissances qui caractérise depuis plusieurs décennies la démographie européenne en analysant précisément ses ressorts et implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Luci Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "Avoir un enfant plus tard: Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01245523, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01245523
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01245523
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01245523/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances, and Social Security," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 385-413, October.
    2. Ermisch, John & Ogawa, Naohiro, 1994. "Age at Motherhood in Japan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 393-420, November.
    3. repec:wly:soecon:v:80:2:y:2013:p:385-413 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mikko Myrskylä & Rachel Margolis, 2014. "Happiness: Before and After the Kids," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1843-1866, October.
    5. Angela Luci, 2011. "Frauen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland und Frankreich. Warum es Französinnen besser gelingt, Familie und Beruf zu vereinbaren," Working Papers hal-01298941, HAL.
    6. d'Albis, Hippolyte, 2007. "Demographic structure and capital accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 411-434, January.
    7. Holger Strulik, 2017. "Contraception And Development: A Unified Growth Theory," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(2), pages 561-584, May.
    8. Alessandro Balestrino & Alessandro Cigno & Anna Pettini, 2002. "Endogenous Fertility and the Design of Family Taxation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 9(2), pages 175-193, March.
    9. Walker, James R, 1995. "The Effect of Public Policies on Recent Swedish Fertility Behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 8(3), pages 223-251, August.
    10. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    11. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00916613 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-538, October.
    13. Dankmeyer, Ben, 1996. "Long Run Opportunity-Costs of Children According to Education of the Mother in the Netherlands," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(3), pages 349-361, August.
    14. Cigno, Alessandro, 1986. "Fertility and the Tax-Benefit System: A Reconsideration of the Theory of Family Taxation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 1035-1051, December.
    15. Baudin, Thomas, 2010. "A Role For Cultural Transmission In Fertility Transitions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 454-481, September.
    16. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    18. Bisin, Alberto & Verdier, Thierry, 2001. "The Economics of Cultural Transmission and the Dynamics of Preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 298-319, April.
    19. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    20. Thomas,Alex M., 2021. "Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108731997, September.
    21. John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
    22. Ariane Pailhé & Anne Solaz, 2012. "The influence of employment uncertainty on childbearing in France: A tempo or quantum effect?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(1), pages 1-40.
    23. Angela Luci, 2011. "Frauen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland und Frankreich. Warum es Französinnen besser gelingt, Familie und Beruf zu vereinbaren," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298941, HAL.
    24. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
    25. Barmby, T & Cigno, A, 1990. "A Sequential Probability Model of Fertility Patterns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 31-51, April.
    26. Mikko Myrskylä & Rachel Margolis, 2014. "Happiness - before and after the Kids," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 642, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    27. Amalia R. Miller, 2009. "Motherhood Delay and the Human Capital of the Next Generation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 154-158, May.
    28. Joëlle Sleebos, 2003. "Low Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: Facts and Policy Responses," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    29. Christian Schmitt, 2008. "Gender-Specific Effects of Unemployment on Family Formation: A Cross-National Perspective," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 127, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    30. Gunnar Andersson & Marit Rønsen & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Trude Lappegård & Gerda Neyer & Kari Skrede & Kathrin Teschner & Andres Vikat, 2009. "Cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(14), pages 313-352.
    31. Fleurbaey,Marc & Maniquet,François, 2011. "A Theory of Fairness and Social Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521887427.
    32. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-1441, November.
    33. Siv Gustafsson, 2001. "Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247.
    34. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    35. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    36. Magali Mazuy & Magali Barbieri & Didier Breton & Hippolyte d’Albis, 2015. "L’évolution démographique récente de la France et ses tendances depuis 70 ans," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 70(3), pages 417-486.
    37. Tomáš Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220, June.
    38. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-1059, October.
    39. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(2), pages 503-519, May.
    40. Laurent Toulemon & Ariane Pailhé & Clémentine Rossier, 2008. "France: High and stable fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(16), pages 503-556.
    41. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1976_31n6_1097 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marie‐Louise Leroux & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2024. "The optimal design of assisted reproductive technologies policies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1454-1479, July.
    2. Angela Greulich & Olivier Thevenon & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière, 2015. "Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298946, HAL.
    3. de la Croix, David & Pommeret, Aude, 2021. "Childbearing postponement, its option value, and the biological clock," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01306103 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Angela Greulich & Olivier Thevenon & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière, 2016. "Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?," Post-Print hal-01298862, HAL.
    6. Angela Greulich & Aurélien Dasre, 2017. "The quality of periodic fertility measures in EU-SILC," Post-Print hal-01726581, HAL.
    7. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01298862 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Angela Greulich & Aurélien Dasré, 2017. "The quality of periodic fertility measures in EU-SILC," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(17), pages 525-556.
    9. Angela Greulich & Olivier Thevenon & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière, 2015. "Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?," Working Papers hal-01298946, HAL.
    10. Angela Greulich & Aurélien Dasre, 2017. "The quality of periodic fertility measures in EU-SILC," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01726581, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hippolyte D'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "AVOIR UN ENFANT PLUS TARD Enjeux sociodémographiques du report des naissances," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298929, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:journl:hal-01298929 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Childbearing Age, Family Allowances, and Social Security," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 385-413, October.
    4. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2017. "Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(23), pages 691-728.
    5. Marie-Louise Leroux & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2022. "Childlessness, childfreeness and compensation," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 59(1), pages 1-35, July.
    6. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2015. "Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 45-87, January.
    7. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    8. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    9. Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2017. "Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(23), pages 691-728.
    10. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    11. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2014. "Optimal fertility along the life cycle," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 185-224, January.
    12. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
    13. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2011. "The impact of family policy packages on fertility trends in developed countries," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00660630, HAL.
    14. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    15. Cosmin Enache, 2012. "Family and Childcare Support Public Expenditures and Short-Term Fertility Dynamics," FEAA Working Papers 2012.FEAA.F.02, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2012. "The Public Economics of Increasing Longevity," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 200(1), pages 41-74, March.
    17. Del Boca, Daniela & Locatelli, Marilena, 2006. "The Determinants of Motherhood and Work Status: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2414, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.
    19. Barigozzi, Francesca & Cremer, Helmuth & Roeder, Kerstin, 2020. "Having it all, for all: Child-care subsidies and income distribution reconciled," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 188-211.
    20. Claude Diebolt & Faustine Perrin, 2019. "A Cliometric Model of Unified Growth: Family Organization and Economic Growth in the Long Run of History," Studies in Economic History, in: Claude Diebolt & Auke Rijpma & Sarah Carmichael & Selin Dilli & Charlotte Störmer (ed.), Cliometrics of the Family, chapter 0, pages 7-31, Springer.
    21. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01245523. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.