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Long-term care and births timing

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Pestieau

    (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Grégory Ponthière

    (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract
Due to the ageing process, the provision of long-term care (LTC) to the dependent elderly has become a major challenge of our epoch. But at the same time, our societies are characterized, since the 1970s, by a significant postponement of births. This paper aims at examining the impact of those demographic trends on the optimal family policy. We develop a four-period OLG model where individuals, who receive children's informal LTC at the old age, must choose, when being young, how to allocate births along their lifecycle. It is shown that early children provide more LTC to their elderly parents than late children, because of the lower opportunity cost of providing LTC when being retired. In comparison with the social optimum, individuals have, at the laissez-faire, too few children early in their life, and too many later on in their life. The decentralization of the first-best optimum requires thus to subsidize early births. We study also the design of the optimal subsidy on early births in a second-best setting. Its level depends on efficiency and equity issues, as well as on its incidence on the long-run population composition and on LTC provision.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2015. "Long-term care and births timing," Working Papers halshs-01131236, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01131236
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01131236
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Akira Yakita, 2024. "Old-age support policy and fertility with strategic bequest motives," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-23, June.
    2. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Greulich, Angela & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 461-494.
    3. Ponthiere, Gregory & Thibault, Emmanuel, 2023. "Life Expectancy, Income and Long-Term Care: The Preston Curve Reexamined," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1335, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Marie‐Louise Leroux & Gregory Ponthiere, 2020. "Nursing home choice, family bargaining, and optimal policy in a Hotelling economy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(4), pages 899-932, August.
    5. Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2016. "The public economics of long term care," CEPR Discussion Papers 11365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Yakita, Akira, 2020. "Economic development and long-term care provision by families, markets and the state," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 15(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long term care; birth timing; childbearing age; family policy; OLG models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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