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L’étonnante atonie des exportations françaises : retour sur la compétitivité et ses déterminants

Author

Listed:
  • Charlotte Emlinger
  • Sébastien Jean
  • Vincent Vicard
Abstract
La nette dégradation du solde de la balance courante de la France pendant la première décennie de l’euro résultait principalement de ses mauvaises performances à l’exportation. Si depuis 2012 les pertes de part de marché ont été stoppées, la croissance des exportations françaises reste en retrait par rapport à nos partenaires européens. Cette atonie persistante peut étonner, aux vues notamment de la baisse du coût du travail moyen en France par rapport à l’Allemagne depuis 2011. Ce rééquilibrage ne représente cependant qu’entre le quart et le tiers de l’augmentation observée entre 1999 et la crise. En outre, que ce soit par les exonérations de cotisations sociales en France ou la mise en place du salaire minimum en Allemagne, cette baisse relative a principalement concerné les bas salaires, qui influent peu sur les exportations. La modération de ce rattrapage est symptomatique de la difficulté de la zone euro à mettre en oeuvre des politiques coordonnées de rééquilibrage en son sein. L’absence d’amélioration probante des performances françaises à l’exportation reste difficile à expliquer par les déterminants traditionnels. La spécialisation française s’est éloignée de celle de l’Allemagne pour se rapprocher de celle de l’Italie, mais elle ne semble pas avoir joué de manière notablement défavorable. L’hypothèse d’un effet d’hystérèse, selon lequel la baisse de la production industrielle française serait à l’origine d’une incapacité durable à regagner des parts de marché à l’exportation, ne résiste pas à l’analyse. La dégradation de la compétitivité hors prix est avérée si l’on entend par là que l’évolution ne nous semble pas complétement expliquée par les prix ; mais elle est difficile à relier à des causes clairement identifiées, qu’il s’agisse de qualité ou d’investissement. Les statistiques d’investissement suggèrent que la France ne souffre pas d’un défaut de dépenses de R et D en comparaison de ses principaux voisins ; au contraire, le maintien de ces dépenses contraste avec l’affaissement relatif de la production manufacturière. Ce constat pose la question de la capacité d’entraînement des activités de R&D sur la production en France, d’autant que l’économie française est marquée par le poids de ses multinationales, dont les implantations à l’étranger ont crû plus rapidement que celles des autres grands pays de la zone euro. Les importants revenus d’investissement qui en découlent expliquent d’ailleurs en bonne partie que la France affiche un solde courant proche de l’équilibre. En ce sens, l’économie française souffre plus d’une perte de sites de production industrielle que d’un défaut de compétitivité.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlotte Emlinger & Sébastien Jean & Vincent Vicard, 2019. "L’étonnante atonie des exportations françaises : retour sur la compétitivité et ses déterminants," CEPII Policy Brief 2019-24, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepipb:2019-24
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/pb/2019/pb2019-24_FR.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Roberto Torrini, 2019. "Making room for new competitors. A comparative perspective on Italy’s exports in the euro-area market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 530, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commerce et mondialisation; Compétitivité et croissance; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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