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Venting out: exports during a domestic slump

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Almunia

    (CUNEF and CEPR)

  • Pol Antràs

    (Harvard University, NBER and CEPR)

  • David López-Rodríguez

    (Banco de España)

  • Eduardo Morales

    (Princeton University, NBER and CEPR)

Abstract
We exploit plausibly exogenous geographical variation in the reduction in domestic demand caused by the Great Recession in Spain to document the existence of a robust, within-firm negative causal relationship between demand-driven changes in domestic sales and export flows. Spanish manufacturing firms whose domestic sales were reduced by more during the crisis observed a larger increase in their export flows, even after controlling for firms’ supply determinants (such as labor costs). This negative relationship between demand-driven changes in domestic sales and changes in export flows illustrates the capacity of export markets to counteract the negative impact of local demand shocks. We rationalize our findings through a standard heterogeneous-firm model of exporting expanded to allow for non-constant marginal costs of production. Using a structurally estimated version of this model, we conclude that the firm-level responses to the slump in domestic demand in Spain could well have accounted for around one-half of the spectacular increase in Spanish goods exports (the so-called “Spanish export miracle”) over the period 2009-13.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Almunia & Pol Antràs & David López-Rodríguez & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Venting out: exports during a domestic slump," Working Papers 1844, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1844
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    vent-for-surplus; exports; domestic slump; increasing marginal cost;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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