[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/scm/ecofrm/v5y2016isp3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Causal Relationship Between Oil Prices Current Account Deficit, And Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis From Fragile Five Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Yuksel BAYRAKTAR,

    (Istanbul University, Turkey)

  • Taha EGRI,

    (Istanbul University, Turkey)

  • Furkan YILDIZ

    (Kirklareli University, Turkey)

Abstract
The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil prices in the Fragile-Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India, and Turkey) on current account deficit and growth. In this study, the method of panel data analysis was used and the period of 1980-2014 was examined. The Levin, Lin, & Chu panel; Im, Pesaran, and Shin W-stat; ADF-Fisher Chi-square; and PP-Fisher Chi-square unit root tests were used to determine the stability of data before panel data analysis. The results of the study can be expressed as follows. i) There was a statistically meaningful relationship in oil prices with both GDP and the current account deficit. While there was a positive correlation between oil prices and GDP, there was a negative relationship between oil prices and current account deficit. ii) No long-term relationship was found between GDP and oil prices; there was a long-term relationship between current account deficit and oil prices as determined by the cointegration tests. iii) Causality test also showed the presence of a bidirectional relationship between GDP and oil prices. Causality between oil prices and the current account deficit was one-way from the variable of oil price to the variable of current account deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuksel BAYRAKTAR, & Taha EGRI, & Furkan YILDIZ, 2016. "A Causal Relationship Between Oil Prices Current Account Deficit, And Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis From Fragile Five Countries," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(Special I), pages 1-3, august.
    • Handle: RePEc:scm:ecofrm:v:5:y:2016:i:s:p:3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ecoforumjournal.ro/index.php/eco/article/view/474/280
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Özlale, Ümit & Pekkurnaz, Didem, 2010. "Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4489-4496, August.
    2. Hanan Morsy, 2012. "Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 122-133, March.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for South African stock returns? A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 825-831.
    5. AydIn, Levent & Acar, Mustafa, 2011. "Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1722-1731, March.
    6. Yoo, Seung-Hoon & Kim, Yeonbae, 2006. "Electricity generation and economic growth in Indonesia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2890-2899.
    7. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
    8. Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2000. "The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 615-625, December.
    9. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
    10. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Reassessment of Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in India," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 10(1), pages 67-79.
    11. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
    12. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa: A trivariate causality test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 635-640, September.
    13. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    14. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    15. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-751, September.
    16. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    17. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
    18. Chaido DRITSAK & Melina DRITSAKI, 2013. "Hysteresis in unemployment: an empirical research for three member states of the European Union," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(581)), pages 33-44, April.
    19. Huntington, Hillard G., 2015. "Crude oil trade and current account deficits," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 70-79.
    20. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    21. Bildirici, M.E. & Alp, E.A. & Bakirtas, T., 2010. "OIL PRICES AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS: Analysis OF CAUSALITY in the USA," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    22. Foresti, Pasquale, 2006. "Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth," MPRA Paper 2962, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    23. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Oil prices and trade balance: A frequency domain analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 663-680.
    24. repec:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:343-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    26. Prachowny,Martin F. J., 1986. "Money in the Macroeconomy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521315944, September.
    27. repec:agr:journl:v:4(581):y:2013:i:4(581):p:33-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Melike Bildirici & Fazil Kayıkçı, 2012. "Global Imbalances in Current Account Balances," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(6), pages 1-7.
    29. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    30. Benjamin Cheng, 1997. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela: a time series analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 671-674.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Kırca, Mustafa & Karagöl, Veysel, 2019. "Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices: The case of BRICS-T," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 56, pages 25-44.
    3. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    4. Mehmet Canakci, 2021. "Does Inflation Affect Economic Growth? A case of Turkey and U.S," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 45-54.
    5. Emin Karataş & Ayyüce Memiş Karataş, 2023. "This research discusses the causal relationship among the exchange rates, 10-year bond yields, and Central Bank policy rates with regard to the countries known as the Fragile Five (F5) by comparing th," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(39), pages 65-75, December.
    6. Jahangir S M Rashed & Dural Betul Yuce, 2018. "Crude oil, natural gas, and economic growth: impact and causality analysis in Caspian Sea region," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 54(3), pages 169-184, September.
    7. Ali, Amjad & Audi, Marc, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on the Current Account Balance in Developing Economies: A Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 118173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasanov, Fakhri & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2017. "Review of energy-growth nexus: A panel analysis for ten Eurasian oil exporting countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 369-386.
    2. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    3. Heidari, Hassan & Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar & Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz, 2015. "How Do Different Oil Price Shocks Affect the Relationship Between Oil and Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 80273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2016.
    4. Suleman Sarwar & Rida Waheed & Mehnoor Amir & Muqaddas Khalid, 2018. "Role of Energy on Economy The Case of Micro to Macro Level Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1905-1926.
    5. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
    6. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Malik, Muhammad Nasir, 2017. "Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 256-270.
    8. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    9. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    10. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    11. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    12. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kahsai, Mulugeta S. & Nondo, Chali & Schaeffer, Peter V. & Gebremedhin, Tesfa G., 2012. "Income level and the energy consumption–GDP nexus: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 739-746.
    15. Raheem, Ibrahim & Olabisi, Nafisat, 2019. "What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus," MPRA Paper 105361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    17. Raúl J. Crespo & José A. Zambrano, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks in Venezuela," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 18/703, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    18. Olesia Kozlova & Jose Noguera-Santaella, 2019. "Relative efficiency of oil price versus oil output in promoting economic growth: Is OPEC’s strategy right?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1997-2012, December.
    19. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    20. Santos, Carlos Filipe & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2014. "O nexus energia-crescimento e o nível da auto-suficiência na produção de petróleo: análise com macro painel [Energy-growth nexus and oil self-sufficiency: macro panel analysis]," MPRA Paper 57008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scm:ecofrm:v:5:y:2016:i:s:p:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iulian Condratov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feusvro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.