(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)"> (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)">
[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipg/wpaper/2014-116.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Oil prices and trade balance: a frequency domain analysis for India

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Arouri
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari
  • Frédéric Teulon
Abstract
This paper studies the lead–lag relationship between oil prices and trade balance for India by using monthly data covering the period from January 1980 to December 2011 and the post current account convertibility era (from August 1994 to December 2011). To analyse the issue, we adopt the approach proposed by Breitung and Candelon (2006) along with the traditional VAR-based conditional Granger causality. The results of VAR-based conditional Granger causality provide evidence of a bidirectional causal relationship in both study periods. Impulse response analysis shows a positive response of the oil price to one standard deviation shock in the trade balance, whereas the trade balance shows a negative response to one standard deviation shock in the oil price. However, frequency domain analysis also provides evidence of a bidirectional causal relationship, which holds for dissimilar frequencies in the short and medium run in the full sample. Moreover, greater strength and a high degree of cyclicality are found when causality runs from the oil price to the trade balance. Interestingly, the results of the post current account convertibility era provide evidence of frequency domain causality running from the oil price to the trade balance in the short, medium and long run, not otherwise. Hence, our study shows that the oil price has become a leading indicator of the Indian trade balance for the short, medium and long horizons.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Arouri & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Oil prices and trade balance: a frequency domain analysis for India," Working Papers 2014-116, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://faculty-research.ipag.edu/wp-content/uploads/recherche/WP/IPAG_WP_2014_116.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2013. "Oil prices and the macroeconomy reconsideration for Germany: Using continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 636-642.
    7. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    8. Bollino, Carlo Andrea, 2007. "Oil prices and the U.S. trade deficit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 729-738.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    10. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    11. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    12. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    14. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.
    15. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    16. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    17. Hassan, Syeda Anam & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2125-2143.
    18. Kilian, Lutz, 2010. "Oil price volatility: Origins and effects," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    19. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-068 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.
    4. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2017. "Asymmetry and break effects of oil price -macroeconomic fundamentals dynamics: The trade effect channel," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 12-25.
    5. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2013. "Oil prices and trade balance: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2270-2286.
    6. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," Working Papers hal-04141574, HAL.
    7. Sotoudeh, M-Ali & Worthington, Andrew C., 2016. "Estimating the effects of global oil market shocks on Australian merchandise trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-84.
    8. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Naidoo, Lutchmee & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amoo, Nii, 2018. "Implications of oil prices shocks for the major emerging economies: A comparative analysis of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 76-88.
    9. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Joëts, Marc & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 63-78.
    10. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    11. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    12. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    13. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    14. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.
    16. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    18. Monojit Chatterji & Homagni Choudhury, 2010. "The Changing Inter-Industry Wage Structure of the Organised Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973-74 to 2003-04," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 244, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    19. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    20. Lebrand, Mathilde & Vasishtha, Garima & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Energy price shocks and current account balances: Evidence from emerging market and developing economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    21. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Nezir Kose & Yeliz Yalcin, 2007. "The Kalman filter method for break point estimation in unit root tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 193-198.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ingmar Schumacher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipagpfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.