Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog

Going back to my earlier Shutdown/Meltdown theme, I wanted to look at Tigers relievers historically.  Remember that a pitcher gets credit for a shutdown (SD) whenever he substantially enhances his teams chance of winning a game (sum of Win Probability Added for the game is 6% or better).  He is charged with a Meltdown (MD) if he significantly hampers his team's chance of winning  (sum of Win Probaility Added for the game is less than -6%).

Before I present the historical SD/MD leaders, there are a couple things to keep in mind.  First, Win Probability Added data are only available back to 1974.  So, anybody pitching prior to that year will be excluded.

Another issue is that relievers were used a lot differently back in the 1970s and even into the 1980s.  In contrast to today where closers typically enter games with nobody on base and pitch one inning, earlier top relievers would often come into games with runners on base and pitch multiple innings.  So, earlier relievers had more opportunities for Meltdowns than contemporary relievers and thus typically didn't do as well on the SD/MD statistic. 

Table 1 lists the Tigers SD/MD leaders since 1974.  1984 MVP winner Guillermo Hernandez tops the list with an amazing 10.2 (41/4) ratio.  The second best ratio belongs to Jose Valverde with a 7.6 (38/5) ratio in 2011.   

Table 1: Tigers Single-season SD/MD Leaders, 1974-2011

Pitcher	Year	SD	MD	SD/MD
Guillermo Hernandez	1984	41	4	10.2
Jose Valverde	2011	38	5	7.6
Todd Jones	2000	35	5	7.0
Mike Christopher	1995	12	2	6.0
Fernando Rodney	2009	35	7	5.0
Jose Valverde	2010	23	5	4.6
Todd Jones	1999	27	6	4.5
Aurelio Lopez	1979	34	8	4.2
Jerry Don Gleaton	1990	21	5	4.2
Todd Jones	2007	29	7	4.1
Todd Jones	1997	32	8	4.0
Joel Zumaya	2006	35	9	3.9
Todd Jones	1998	26	7	3.7
Mike Henneman	1991	29	8	3.6
Jose Lima	1996	14	4	3.5

Data from: FanGraphs.com

Todd Jones had five of the top 15 seasons - 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2007.  There are a couple of factors involved in Jones' success.  First, the Roller Coaster was not used in a lot of situations where he had chances for Meltdowns.  Just as importantly, he was very good at his role and therefore was able to get a good number of Shutdowns.

The biggest surprises on the list are Mike Christopher in 1995 and Jose Lima in 1996.  Neither was very good according to traditional statistics, but a look at their game logs shows that they pitched well in high leverage situations.  It's probably just a fluke that they pitched their best when they were needed the most, but their good SD/MD ratios indicate that they probably had more value to their teams than the more traditional measures indicate.

In earlier posts, I used Shutdowns and Meltdowns to identify some of the best relievers in the American and National leagues in 2011.  Remember that a pitcher gets credit for a shutdown (SD) whenever he substantially enhances his teams chance of winning a game (sum of Win Probability Added for the game is 6% or better).  He is charged with a Meltdown (MD) if he significantly hampers his team's chance of winning  (sum of Win Probaility Added for the game is less than -6%).

Today, I'm going to find the worst relievers of the year.  Table 1 list the pitchers who were most prone to Meltdowns; the pitchers most likely to pour gas on the fire.  When Washington Nationals reliever Doug Slaten came into a game in 2011, there was a good chance something bad was going to happen.  Slaten pitched in only 31 games, but had 11 MDs for an MD% of 35.5%.

The only Tiger on the list was Phil Coke with 8 SDs in 34 games (23.5%).  In the American League, Orioles fans got nervous when Jeremy Accardo entered a game.  The Baltimore right hander  had 9 MDs in 31 games for a 29.0 MD%.  The only Tiger on the list was lefty Phil Coke with a 23.5 MD%.

Table 1: MLB Worst Meltdown Percentages



Not only did Slaten have 11 MDs, he also had just one SD.  As seen in Table 2, this combination gave him a major-league worst 0.1 SD/MD Ratio.  The worst AL pitcher in this category was Oriole reliever Jason Berken with a Ratio of 0.3 (3/11).  The Tigers had no pitchers anywhere near this list.  Fortunately, Coke made up for his propensity for Meltdowns somewhat with 12 Shutdowns and a 1.5 SD/MD Ratio.

Table 2: MLB Worst Shutdown/Meltdown Ratios