Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog

The best week of baseball's hot stove season is about to begin as the general managers are gathering in Nashville for the MLB Winter Meetings.  There is sure to be a lot of activity in terms of trades and free agent signings.  Last year, 26 players were traded and 38 free agents signed including first baseman Albert Pujols, and pitchers Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson.

The Tigers did not make a lot of noise at the 2011 meetings.  Their biggest transaction was signing free agent reliever Octavio Dotel.  In smaller moves, they also signed minor league pitcher Chris Bootcheck and traded reliever Ryan Perry to the Nationals for reliever Collin Balestar.

In past years, General Manager Dave Dombrowski shook up the meetings in a big way.  In 2007, he acquired future MVP Miguel Cabrera in a eight-player deal withe the Marlins.  Two years later, he acquired center fielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Phil Coke and Max Schlereth while giving up outfielder Curtis Granderson as part of a three-team, seven-player trade with the Diamondbacks and Yankees. 

The Tigers have already gotten a head start on their 2013 roster by acquiring second baseman Omar Infante from the Marlins in July and signing free agent outfielder Torii Hunter in November.  They will also be adding designated hitter Victor Martinez, who missed all of last season with a knee injury.  I don't think they are done yet though.

The Tigers still have several needs including a starting pitcher, a closer, a more athletic shortstop, a right-handed hitting outfielder and a back-up catcher.  They are trying to sign free agent right hander Anibal Sanchez, who was acquired from the Marlins in the Infante deal.  He is going to be really expensive though - perhaps five years $75 million or even higher if some team goes crazy.

Owner Mike Illitch is not shy about spending money, but the Tigers have not typically gotten involved in bidding wars for free agent agent starting pitchers.  They have preferred to develop their own starters or acquire them in trades.   When they spend big money, it is usually for a hitter such as Martinez, Prince Fielder,  Magglio Ordonez or Pudge Rodriguez.  Both Dombrowski and Illitch want Sanchez though, so it's a possibility, but it's only going to happen if Illitch ups the payroll substantially again this year.   

Dombrowski has said that the Tigers will not pursue a closer and will instead find one among Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Octavio Dotel and rookie Bruce Rondon.  I don't believe they are really set there though as Rondon is still a big unknown and the others seem better fit for setup roles.  I don't think they'll go after the big prize Rafael Soriano, but they may go after someone like free agent Joakim Soria or trade for J.J Putz of the DiamondBacks or Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates. 

As for shortstops, the Tigers have been linked to free agent Stephen Drew and Indians shorstop Asdrubal Cabrera of the Indians .  Astros infielder Jed Lowrie and Marlins recent acquisition Yunel Escobar are also believed to be available.  If they can acquire a shortstop, that would make Peralta expendable.  Entering the off-season I thought that Peralta would be the Tigers 2013 shortstop, but now it looks more like they want to make a change.  The best bet here is that Dombrowski rolls the dice on Drew and then trades Peralta to a team like Arizona or Boston.

Dombrowski has been reluctant to commit to Andy Dirks as a full-time outfielder and the Tigers would prefer that youngsters Nick Castellanos and Avisail Garcia get more seasoning in the minors.  The Tigers were linked to Arizona's Justin Upton earlier in the off-season, so maybe that will be this year's blockbuster.  As much as Upton would be an upgrade though, he is probably not the type of player for which they would sell the farm.  So, I'm not expecting that.  Rather, I would look for them to sign a right-handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Dirks.  Free agents Scott Hairston and Cody Ross are two possibilities, although Ross is seeking a full-time role. 

Finally, the Tigers are in need of a backup catcher for the oft-injured Alex Avila.  Rookie Bryan Holaday has the defensive skills to backup once or twice per week, but would probably not be an adequate replacement if Avila goes down for more than a week with an injury (which seems inevitable given Avila's durability problems).  Dombrowski has said he is comfortable with Holaday as the backup, but I don't believe him.  I think they will sign a right-handed hitting catcher such as Jesus Flores, Kelly Shoppach or Geovanny Soto.

There is plenty of time left in the off-season and they are not likely to do all of the above next week.   Remember, they waited until the last week of January to make their biggest move of the 2011-2012 off-season.  That, of course, was the signing of Fielder to a nine-year contract. I don't think they'll disappoint this week though.  I fully expect Dombrowski to swing a deal or two in Nashville.

When Nick Cafardo recently wrote in the Boston Globe about the Tigers possibly being interested in Cubs right hander Matt Garza, it sounded like speculation to me so I didn't take it too seriously.  There apparently might be something to it though as Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports is now reporting the same thing.  As you might expect, there are several other teams who are interested including the Yankees and Blue Jays.

The 28-year-old Garza posted a 3.32 ERA and impressive 197/63 K/BB ratio in 198 innings last year.  He also finished among the National League's top ten pitchers with a 2.95 FIP and 20 Base Runs Saved.  More importantly, Garza has maintained consistent success since becoming a regular starter averaging 197 innings and a 3.72 ERA over the last four seasons.  Each year, his ERA has been below 4.00. 

Garza's arsenal features a fastball with an average velocity of 93.8.  For comparison purposes, Max Scherzer averages 93.1 MPH.  Garza's second best pitch is his slider and he also throws a curve ball and change up.

Garza is clearly a very solid number two or three starter on a contending team.  The catch is that he is just two years away from free agency and will be costly in terms of prospects.  The Tigers might not have to gut their entire system for two years of Garza as they would have for four years of Gio Gonzalez.  However, the Cubs would likely require Tigers prized righty Jacob Turner as part of the deal. 

Should the Tigers give up Turner for Garza?  One argument is that they would be trading six years of control over Turner for two years of Garza.  On the flip side, Turner may never be as good a Garza already is.  I don't worry too much about years of team control when it comes to pitchers, because they are so fragile and unpredictable, you just don't know where they'll be two years from now.  Never mind six. 

The bigger question for me is, do you want to trade your best prospect trading chip for two years of Garza or do you want to save him for something bigger?  It might depend on what else they can do.  If they are able to acquire Garza and also make an upgrade or two offensively, this would put them in really good position to win it all the next couple of years. Otherwise, they might be better off waiting to see how things look prior to next season's deadline.

When San Francisco Chronicle Writer Susan Slusser reported late last night that the Tigers were making a push for Althletics left-hander Gio Gonzalez, it was both surprising and exciting.  The 26-year old Gonzalez  was 10th in the American league with a 3.12 ERA and had 197 strikeouts in 202 innings in 2011.  He does struggle with his control walking a league-leading 91 batters.  However, that didn't stop him from finishing 10th in the league with 22 Pitching Runs Saved.

Gonzalez is not only talented, but affordable in terms of salary.  He made just $420,000 in 2011 and will not be a free agent until 2016.  That all sounds good, probably too good.  There are several teams interested in Gonzalez and it's going to take a lot to get him.  For example, the Athletics asked the Yankees for top prospects Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos.

The Tigers do not have that kind of talent in their system, so they would probably have to include a major league player in the deal.  Right-handed starter Jacob Turner would almost certainly have to be included in the deal, but that wouldn't even come close to getting it done. Adding third baseman Nick Castellanos would make the Athletics listen, but the Tigers would be reluctant to give him up given their death of infield talent.  The Athletics are in need of young outfielders, so Austin Jackson or Brennan Boesch would be attractive to them.  However, that would create an immediate hole which would be difficult for the Tigers to fill.

Perhaps a third team could be added to the mix, but that's easier said than done.  In the end, other teams have more offer in terms of prospects, so it's difficult to see this happening for the Tigers.  It's good to see they are not content to just stand pat though.

It's no secret that the Tigers are looking for a veteran reliever to pitch the seventh inning setting up Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde.  They have been linked to Octavio Dotel and Luis Ayala over the last few days.  The list of free agent relievers is long though, so we can probably expect more names to show up in coming days.

In a recent post, I introduced the shutdown  (SD) and Meltdown (MD) statistics published at FanGraphs and used those to calculate Shutdown Percentage (SD%), Meltdown Percentage (MD%) and Shutdown/Meltdown Ratio (SD/MD).  SD/MD seems like a pretty good measure of reliever effectiveness, so I wanted to calculate it for the current crop of free agents. 

Before considering the free agents though, I'll look at the Tigers as a frame of reference.  Table 1 shows that the MLB median SD% was 28.6%.  Four Tigers relievers - Valverde (50.7), Benoit (43.9), Al Aburquerque (39.0) and Phil Coke (35.3) were above the median.  Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth fell below the median. 

Table 1: Shutdown Percentages for Tigers Relievers, 2011



Table 2 illustrates that Valverde (6.7 MD%) was the best a preventing meltdowns followed by Schlereth (10.2) and Alburquerque (12.2).  The reason for Schlereth finishing so high is probably partially a result of not being put into a lot of situations where he could hurt the team.  Still, his low meltdown rate could be viewed as a positive.  

Table 2: Meltdown Percentages for Tigers Relievers, 2011



Table 3 shows that MLB median SD/MD was 1.9.  Not surprisingly, Valverde, Benoit and Alburquerque were substantially above that.  Perry, Coke and Schlereth were all at or below the median.  This lines up pretty much how I would expect after watching the team all year.  I would have thought that Coke might be ahead of Perry, but the big gap between the top three and bottom three makes sense.  

Table 3: Shutdown/Meltdown Ratios for Tigers Relievers, 2011




 Table 4 shows the SD/MD ratios for a 15 free agent relievers who the Tigers might consider.  Closers are omitted because the Tigers are not looking for a closer, nor do they want to invest a lot of money in a reliever.  Also excluded are injured pitchers and others who I don't think would interest the Tigers at all.

Based on the above data for Tigers relievers, it would be good to see them acquire another reliever that could perform above the league median. Dotel had an SD/MD ratio of 2.5 in 2011, so he qualifies.  Other free agent relievers above the median are LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito.  Nobody else is above the median including Ayala at 1.3.

Now, SD/MD is not the end all of reliever evaluation, nor is one year of data enough to remove a pitcher from consideration.  Still, this is not a very impressive crop of relievers and there is no guarantee a lot of them will perform better than coke, Perry and Schlereth in 2011.  Adding depth is not a bad idea if you can get it cheaply.  However, sometimes it's best to acquire middle relievers as needed during the season like the Cardinals and Rangers did last year.

Table 4: Shutdown/Meldown Ratios for Free Agent Relievers, 2011

Name	Team	SD	MD	SD/MD
LaTroy Hawkins	MIL	19	4	4.8
Takashi Saito	MIL	11	4	2.8
Octavio Dotel	TOR/MIL	15	6	2.5
Todd Coffey	WAS	13	7	1.9
Mike Gonzalez	BAL/TEX	11	6	1.8
Jamey Wright	SEA	18	11	1.6
Miguel Batista	STL/NYM	9	6	1.5
Shawn Camp	TOR	15	10	1.5
Juan Cruz	TB	10	7	1.4
Luis Ayala	NYY	8	6	1.3
Chad Qualls	SD	18	14	1.3
George Sherrill	ATL	11	9	1.2
Fernando Rodney	LAA	11	9	1.2
Chad Durbin	CLE	9	8	1.1
Scott Linebrink	ATL	12	12	1.0