Monday, November 21, 2011
No Tigers Position Player has Won MVP Since 1940
What would be even more rare though would be a Tigers position player winning the prize. The last one to do so was Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg in 1940. While most of the talk has centered around Verlander, first baseman Miguel Cabrera also has an outside shot at the award. I don't think he'll win, but it's hard to ignore a batter who led the league in batting average, on base percentage and times on base. Cabrera also finished second in OPS ans slugging and third in total bases.
If either Verlander or Cabrera is the MVP, he would be the tenth Tiger to win the award. The others are listed below:
1911 Ty Cobb
1934 Mickey Cochrane
1935 Hank Greenberg
1937 Charlie Gehringer
1940 Hank Greenberg
1944 Hal Newhouser
1945 Hal Newhouser
1968 Denny McLain
1984 Willie Hernandez
Sunday, November 20, 2011
My MVP Ballot
1. Jose Bautista TOR
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
4. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
5. Curtis Granderson, NY
6. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
7. Alex Avila, DET
8. Ben Zobrist, TB
9. Robison Cano, NY
10. Ian Kinsler, TEX
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Verlander is Unanimous Cy Young Winner
With seven points for each first place vote, Verlander scored 196 total points. Other pitchers receiving votes are listed below:
Justin Verlander 196
Jered Weaver 97
James Shields 66
CC Sabathia 63
Jose Valverde 28
CJ Wilson 9
Danny Haren 7
Mariano Rivera 4
Josh Beckett 3
Ricky Romero 2
David Robertson 1
The first four names on the list matched my list. Tigers closer Jose Valverde finished fifth with 28 points thanks, in part to a second place vote from Tigers beat writer Tom Gage. While I think Valverde was quite valuable to the Tigers, it's difficult for me to rank pitchers with fewer than 80 innings pitched among starters with over 200 innings. Other relievers receiving votes were Mariano Rivera and David Robertson, both of the Yankees.
I had Doug Fister sixth on my list but he was shut out in the real voting. The likely reason was his 11-13 record which of course was a result of poor run support pitching for the Mariners in the first half.
Verlander was the ninth unanimous winner and the first since Minnesota Twins lefty Johan Santana in 2006. He is also the first to win both the AL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young. He also has a chance to win the MVP award next week.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Ranking the AL Cy Young Candidates
For this exercise, I'm selecting ten statistics ranging from the traditional (e.g ERA) to the the advanced (e.g. Win Probability Added). I will rank each pitcher on each measure giving 10 points for first place, 9 points for second place, etc. For example, likely Cy Young winner Justin Verlander led the league in ERA, so he gets 10 points for that; He finished third in strikeout/walk ratio, so he gets 8 points for that; etc. I them sum the points across all ten statistics to arrive at a total for each pitcher.
The ten metrics are:
IP - Innings Pitched
ERA - Earned Run Average
K - Strikeouts
K/BB - Strikeout/Walk ratio
PRS - Pitching Runs Saved
BsRAA - Base Runs Saved Above Average
fWAR - FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement.
tERA or tRA - True ERA
SIERRA - Skill-interactive ERA
WPA - Win Probability Added
I don't claim this to be a "correct" or scientific selection of metrics. It's just a group of my favorite measures encompassing all of the relevant pitcher skills.
The table below shows that Verlander won eight of the ten categories and scored 97 out of a possible 100 points. The only measures on which he didn't finish first were K/BB where he finished third and fWAR where he was second. Angels right-hander Danny Haren was first in K/BB and Yankees ace CC Sabathia was first in fWAR. So, unless you have total faith in K/BB alone or fWAR alone, it would be pretty hard to justify selecting anyone over Verlander.
I don't know of anyone who would base their vote solely on K/BB. There are some in the FanGraphs school, who might base it on fWAR alone, so you may hear some arguments supporting Sabathia. However, it's very close - Sabathia 7.1 versus Verlander 7.0. So, even if you are a huge fWAR fan, you'd really have to take a look at some other numbers to break the virtual tie. In that case, you'd notice that Verlander wins everything else.
The other thing for Tigers fans to notice is that Doug Fister finished sixth with 34 points. He was especially strong in ERA, K/BB and PRS. It will be interesting to see how much attention he receives in the voting. I suspect not much given his 11-13 record due to poor run support.
Table 1: Ranking of AL Cy Young Candidates
Pitcher | IP | ERA | K | K/BB | PRS | BsRAA | fWAR | TERA | SIERRA | WPA | Total |
Verlander | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 97 |
Weaver | 6 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 64 |
Sabathia | 7 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 57 |
Shields | 9 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 57 |
Haren | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 51 |
Fister | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
Beckett | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 33 |
Hernandez | 5 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 30 |
Wilson | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 |
Price | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
Data Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs.com
Friday, November 04, 2011
Players Say Verlander Was Best
The Players Choice Award leads to the question as to whether Verlander might win the coveted Most Valuable Player Award for the American League. It's a foregone conclusion that he will win the Cy Young Award, but it's rare for a pitcher to win the MVP. I'm not sure if the players choosing him necessarily bodes well for him winning the MVP as the writers have a long history of choosing position players.
Many fans will argue that a starting pitcher is just as valuable as a hitter even if he starts just once every five games. The reasoning is that a pitcher's impact on one game is much greater than that of a hitter. That is a legitimate argument, but I don't know if it's the main issue.
My feeling is that the Cy Young Award is the pitchers award and the MVP is the position players award and I would guess that many writers share that sentiment. The Cy Young is like the MVP for pitchers, so I'm not sure it's fair that they can also win the actual MVP. If they are going to have an MVP for everyone plus an award just for pitchers, shouldn't they also have a separate award just for position players?
Of course, many will argue that there is a difference between "most valuable player" and "most outstanding player". I am probably in the minority, but my argument is that they both mean the same thing. I view the player that helps his team win the most games (regardless of the quality of the team) as both the most outstanding and most valuable player. In the case of pitchers, that is the Cy Young. For position players, that is the MVP.
Now, if we are just going to have one award for for both pitchers and hitters, I think Verlander is a legitimate choice. I do question the selections of the other two fnalists - Yankees center fielder Curtis Granderson and Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. I think Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp and Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, just to name two, would have been better choices.
I talked yesterday about Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera getting snubbed in the Silver Slugger Award voting. He was clearly a better hitter than Gonzalez. You could make a case that Gonzalez makes up the difference with his fielding, but I don't believe that defense at first base has enough of an impact to close that gap.
Anyway, the AL MVP vote will be interesting. Cabrera is getting no respect from anyone, so I don't think he'll be in the running. Verlander probably has a good chance, although I'd bet on Granderson. As I explained above, I would not choose Verlander because of how I define the awards. I would choose Bautista. However, I would understand if others voted for Verlander based on their own definitions of the award
Thursday, November 03, 2011
Avila Wins Siver Slugger, Cabrera Robbed
On the other hand, Tigers slugging first baseman Miguel Cabrera failed to win an award despite being the top offensive first baseman in the league by a wide margin. Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez won the award despite finishing far behind Cabrera in OPS (.957 versus 1.033) and Batting Runs (51.4 versus 71.3).
Gonzalez probably won the award because of his advantage in RBI (117 to 105), but he also led the league in RBI opportunities with 486 base runners. Cabrera had 460 runners on base in his at bats. Do not blame the sports writers for this robbery. Just like the Gold Glove Awards, it is the MLB managers and coaches who vote for the Silver Sluggers.
Another Tiger who could make a strong case for a Silver Slugger was Jhonny Peralta, who led all AL shortstops with a .824 OPS and 16.3 Batting Runs. Instead, Asdrubal Cabrera captured the award with a .792 OPS and 15.2 Batting Runs. This one was close enough where I won't call it a robbery though.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Playing Time May Help Cabrera Win MVP
1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.2. Number of games played.3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.4. Former winners are eligible.5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.
I believe a player’s “value” is best defined as how difficult he would be for the team to replace.
Take away Hamilton, and the Rangers still have a very good lineup.
Take away Cabrera, and Ryan Raburn is the potential cleanup man.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Blog Poll - AL Awards (week 15)
Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the America League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.
MVP
1. Ian Kinsler
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Milton Bradley
Who thought at the beginning of the season that three Rangers would top the voting?
Cy Young
1. Cliff Lee
2. Justin Duchsherer
2. Roy Halladay
And who thought Lee and Duchscherer would be the CY Young leaders?
Rookie of the Year
1. Evan Longoria
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Nick Blackburn
I voted for Armando Galarraga (third place vote) this week but I may have been the only one.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Blog poll - NL awards (week 14)
Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the National League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.
MVP
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Albert Pujols
Cy Young
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Ben Sheets
Rookie of the Year
1. Geovanny Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Joey Votto
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Blog Poll - AL Awards (week 13)
Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the America League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie. Armando Galarraga finished fifth in the Rookie vote.
MVP
1. Milton Bradley
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Carlos Quentin
Cy Young
1. Cliff Lee
2. Roy Halladay
3. Justin Duchsherer
Rookie of the Year
1. Evan Longoria
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Greg Smith
Friday, June 27, 2008
Blog poll - NL Awards (week 12)
Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the National League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.
MVP
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Chipper Jones
Cy Young
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Tim Lincecun
3. Ben Sheets
Rookie of the Year
1. Geovanny Soto
2. Joey Votto
3. Kosuke Fukudome
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Blog Poll - AL Awards (week 11)
Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the America League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.
MVP
1. Josh Hamilton
2. Milton Bradley
3. JD Drew
Cy Young
1. Cliff Lee
2. Shaun Marcum
3. Felix Hernandez
Rookie of the Year
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Evan Longoria
3. David Murphy
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Blog poll - NL awards (week 8)
Jason Collette (who has taken over the weekly blog poll for a very busy David Bloom) has this weeks results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the National League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.
MVP
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chipper Jones
3. Chase Utley
Cy Young
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Brandon Webb
Rookie of the Year
1. Geovany Soto
2. Joey Votto
3. Jair Jurrjens
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Blog Poll - NL Awards (week 6)
One thing that struck me as I filled out my ballot yesterday was how many National Leaguers and how few American Leaguers are having big offensive seasons. The top 10 OPS and 24 of the top 30 OPS in the majors belong to National Leaguers. So much for the American League being the hitter's league.
MVP
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Chipper Jones
Cy Young
1. Brandon Webb
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Edinson Volquez
Rookie of the Year
1. Geovany Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Kosuke Fukudome
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Blog Poll - AL Awards (week 5)
MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Casey Kotchman
3. Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin (Tie)
Cy Young
1. Cliff Lee
2. Zack Greinke
3. Ervin Santana, Chien-Ming Wang (Tie)
Rookie of the Year
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Greg Smith
3. Evan Longoria
Monday, April 21, 2008
MLB Awards Poll - AL week3
MVP
- Manny Ramirez
- Carlos Guillen
- AJ Pierzynski
It's not Guillen's fault that the Tigers are off to an awful start. He is shining through the motown rubble with the second highest OBP (.471) and second highest slugging percentage (.623) in the league (as of Sunday when I voted).
Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Zach Greinke
- Cliff Lee
Felix Hernandez seems primed for a breakout season at the age of 22. He has 24 strikeouts and a 1.47 ERA in four starts.
Rookie
- Nick Blackburn
- Daric Barton
- David Murphy
After a great Arizona Fall League performance, Nick Blackburn has a 2.49 ERA and has walked just three in four starts.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
MLB awards poll - NL week 2
MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Hanley Ramirez
- Justin Upton
Many fantasy leaguers avoided Pujols like the plague in pre-season drafts but maybe every player should play with a shredded elbow ligament.
Cy Young
- Jake Peavy
- Ben Sheets
- Brandon Webb
Peavy starts on top and may finish there.
Rookie
- Geovanny Soto
- kusoke Fukudome
- Johnny Cueto
A catcher who can catch and hit for power, Soto already looks to be one of the most valuable receivers in the league.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
MLB Awards Voting
MVP
1. AJ Pierzinski - a catcher with 24 runs created per game.
2.Jermaine Dye - off to a great start in an attempted comback season.
3. Brian Roberts - big player in Orioles fast start.
Cy Young
1.Felix Hernandez - still a very young pitcher looking for a breakout season - 15 shutout innings over 2 starts.
2. Rich Harden - hoping to finally stay healthy this year.
3.Chien-Ming Wang - underrated pitcher (for a Yankee) continues to roll.
Rookie
1. David Murphy - surprising young outfielder starts where he left off last September.
2.Nick Blakburn - solid first start
3.Clete Thomas Played well in place of Curtis Granderson/ Gary Sheffield