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Showing posts with label Awards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Awards. Show all posts

Monday, November 21, 2011

No Tigers Position Player has Won MVP Since 1940

There has been much talk about the Tigers not having an MVP winner since 1984 when Guillermo Hernandez won the award as a reliever on their last championship team.  The feeling is that Tigers ace Justin Verlander has a good shot at winning the MVP and he would be in select company.  That would be a rare feat as no pitcher has won the AL MVP since Dennis Eckersley of the Athletics in 1992.  Moreover, no starting pitcher has taken home the honor since Red Sox right-hander Roger Clemens in 1986.

What would be even more rare though would be a Tigers position player winning the prize.  The last one to do so was Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg in 1940.  While most of the talk has centered around Verlander, first baseman Miguel Cabrera also has an outside shot at the award.  I don't think he'll win, but it's hard to ignore a batter who led the league in batting average, on base percentage and times on base.  Cabrera also finished second in OPS ans slugging and third in total bases. 

If either Verlander or Cabrera is the MVP, he would be the tenth Tiger to win the award. The others are listed below:

1911 Ty Cobb
1934 Mickey Cochrane
1935 Hank Greenberg
1937 Charlie Gehringer
1940 Hank Greenberg
1944 Hal Newhouser
1945 Hal Newhouser
1968 Denny McLain
1984 Willie Hernandez

Sunday, November 20, 2011

My MVP Ballot

I don't have time for a long analysis tonight, but I wanted to list my AL MVP Choices.  I explained in an earlier post why I wouldn't vote for a pitcher, so I won't be putting Justin Verlander on the list.  As I said previously, it's not that I don't think pitchers are as valuable as hitters.  It's because I consider the Cy Young Award to be the MVP for pitchers and the MVP to be a position player award.  If I was going to include pitchers on my ballot, Verlander would probably be number one or two.  Here is how I rank the position players:

1. Jose Bautista TOR
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
4. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
5. Curtis Granderson, NY
6. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
7. Alex Avila, DET
8. Ben Zobrist, TB 
9. Robison Cano, NY
10. Ian Kinsler, TEX

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Verlander is Unanimous Cy Young Winner

We all knew that Justin Verlander would win the 2011 American League Cy Young Award.  The only question was whether he would be the unanimous choice.   In a recent post, I compared Verlander against all the top candidates and concluded that no reasonable person could vote against him.  Sure enough, he received all 28 first place votes cast by American League beat writers.

With seven points for each first place vote, Verlander scored 196 total points.  Other pitchers receiving votes are listed below:

Justin Verlander 196
Jered Weaver 97
James Shields 66
CC Sabathia 63
Jose Valverde 28
CJ Wilson 9
Danny Haren 7
Mariano Rivera 4
Josh Beckett 3
Ricky Romero 2
David Robertson 1

The first four names on the list matched my list.  Tigers closer Jose Valverde finished fifth with 28 points thanks, in part to a second place vote from Tigers beat writer Tom Gage.  While I think Valverde was quite valuable to the Tigers, it's difficult for me to rank pitchers with fewer than 80 innings pitched among starters with over 200 innings.  Other relievers receiving votes were Mariano Rivera and David Robertson, both of the Yankees.
 
I had Doug Fister sixth on my list but he was shut out in the real voting.  The likely reason was his 11-13 record which of course was a result of poor run support pitching for the Mariners in the first half.

Verlander was the ninth unanimous winner and the first since Minnesota Twins lefty Johan Santana in 2006.  He is also the first to win both the AL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young.  He also has a chance to win the MVP award next week. 

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Ranking the AL Cy Young Candidates

With my recent focus on pitching and the American League Cy Young Award announcement scheduled for Tuesday, I thought this would be a good time to rank the leading candidates.  One thing I always emphasize is that there is no one pitching statistic that adequately summarizes pitching performance.  So, I won't do that here.  Instead, I'm going to consider an array of measures which cover all the important traits of pitchers.

For this exercise, I'm selecting ten statistics ranging from the traditional (e.g ERA) to the the advanced (e.g. Win Probability Added).  I will rank each pitcher on each measure giving 10 points for first place, 9 points for second place, etc.  For example, likely Cy Young winner Justin Verlander led the league in ERA, so he gets 10 points for that; He finished third in strikeout/walk ratio, so he gets 8 points for that; etc.  I them sum the points across all ten statistics to arrive at a total for each pitcher.

The ten metrics are:

IP - Innings Pitched
ERA - Earned Run Average
K - Strikeouts
K/BB - Strikeout/Walk ratio
PRS - Pitching Runs Saved
BsRAA - Base Runs Saved Above Average
fWAR - FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement.
tERA or tRA - True ERA
SIERRA - Skill-interactive ERA
WPA - Win Probability Added

I don't claim this to be a "correct" or scientific selection of metrics.  It's just a group of my favorite measures encompassing all of the relevant pitcher skills.   

The table below shows that Verlander won eight of the ten categories and scored 97 out of a possible 100 points.  The only measures on which he didn't finish first were K/BB where he finished third and fWAR where he was second.  Angels right-hander Danny Haren was first in K/BB and Yankees ace CC Sabathia was first in fWAR.  So, unless you have total faith in K/BB alone or fWAR alone, it would be pretty hard to justify selecting anyone over Verlander.

I don't know of anyone who would base their vote solely on K/BB.  There are some in the FanGraphs school, who might base it on fWAR alone, so you may hear some arguments supporting Sabathia. However, it's very close - Sabathia 7.1 versus Verlander 7.0.  So, even if you are a huge fWAR fan, you'd really have to take a look at some other numbers to break the virtual tie.  In that case, you'd notice that Verlander wins everything else.

The other thing for Tigers fans to notice is that Doug Fister finished sixth with 34 points.  He was especially strong in ERA, K/BB and PRS.  It will be interesting to see how much attention he receives in the voting.  I suspect not much given his 11-13 record due to poor run support.    

Table 1: Ranking of AL Cy Young Candidates

Pitcher
IP
ERA
K
K/BB
PRS
BsRAA
fWAR
TERA
SIERRA
WPA
Total
Verlander
10
10
10
8
10
10
9
10
10
10
97
Weaver
6
9
3
5
9
9
6
8
0
9
64
Sabathia
7
2
9
6
7
3
10
0
9
4
57
Shields
9
8
8
4
5
7
2
2
6
6
57
Haren
8
0
1
10
0
6
8
9
4
5
51
Fister
0
7
0
7
6
5
5
4
0
0
34
Beckett
0
6
0
1
8
8
0
0
2
8
33
Hernandez
5
0
7
0
0
0
4
6
8
0
30
Wilson
1
4
5
0
2
4
7
0
1
3
27
Price
2
0
6
3
0
0
0
5
7
0
23

Data Sources: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs.com

Friday, November 04, 2011

Players Say Verlander Was Best

Justin Verlander tweeted yesterday afternoon that there would be a big announcement that night.  Fans speculated whether there was going to be some kind of trade or signing involving the Tigers or whether it would be something more personal such as a marriage to his long-time girl friend.  It turned out that the Tigers ace won both the MLB Players of the Year and the American League Outstanding Pitcher at the Players Choice Awards.  It is quite an honor to be recognized by his peers as the best player in the game.

The Players Choice Award leads to the question as to whether Verlander might win the coveted Most Valuable Player Award for the American League.  It's a foregone conclusion that he will win the Cy Young Award, but it's rare for a pitcher to win the MVP.  I'm not sure if the players choosing him necessarily bodes well for him winning the MVP as the writers have a long history of choosing position players.

Many fans will argue that a starting pitcher is just as valuable as a hitter even if he starts just once every five games.  The reasoning is that a pitcher's impact on one game is much greater than that of a hitter.  That is a legitimate argument, but I don't know if it's the main issue.

My feeling is that the Cy Young Award is the pitchers award and the MVP is the position players award and I would guess that many writers share that sentiment.  The Cy Young is like the MVP for pitchers, so I'm not sure it's fair that they can also win the actual MVP. If they are going to have an MVP for everyone plus an award just for pitchers, shouldn't they also have a separate award just for position players?

Of course, many will argue that there is a difference between "most valuable player" and "most outstanding player".  I am probably in the minority, but my argument is that they both mean the same thing.  I view the player that helps his team win the most games (regardless of the quality of the team) as both the most outstanding and most valuable player.  In the case of pitchers, that is the Cy Young.  For position players, that is the MVP.

Now, if we are just going to have one award for for both pitchers and hitters, I think Verlander is a legitimate choice.  I do question the selections of the other two fnalists - Yankees center fielder Curtis Granderson and Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.  I think Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp and Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, just to name two, would have been better choices.

I talked yesterday about Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera getting snubbed in the Silver Slugger Award voting.  He was clearly a better hitter than Gonzalez.  You could make a case that Gonzalez makes up the difference with his fielding, but I don't believe that defense at first base has enough of an impact to close that gap.  

Anyway, the AL MVP vote will be interesting.  Cabrera is getting no respect from anyone, so I don't think he'll be in the running.  Verlander probably has a good chance, although I'd bet on Granderson.  As I explained above, I would not choose Verlander because of how I define the awards.  I would choose Bautista.  However, I would understand if others voted for Verlander based on their own definitions of the award

Thursday, November 03, 2011

Avila Wins Siver Slugger, Cabrera Robbed

Tigers catcher Alex Avila has won his first American League Silver Slugger award after leading all catchers with a .895 OPS and 31.2 Batting Runs.  He also was among the top ten in the league regardless of position in both categories.  The closest one to him statistically was Indians receiver Carlos Santana with a .808 OPS and 21.8 Batting Runs. Rangers catcher Mike Napoli had 38.7 Batting Runs, but was frequently used at first base and designated hitter and appeared in only 66 games behind the plate.  It was a well deserved award for Avila and could be his first of many.

On the other hand, Tigers slugging first baseman Miguel Cabrera failed to win an award despite being the top offensive first baseman in the league by a wide margin.  Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez won the award despite finishing far behind Cabrera in OPS (.957 versus 1.033) and Batting Runs (51.4 versus 71.3).

Gonzalez probably won the award because of his advantage in RBI (117 to 105), but he also led the league in RBI opportunities with 486 base runners.  Cabrera had 460 runners on base in his at bats.  Do not blame the sports writers for this robbery.  Just like the Gold Glove Awards, it is the MLB managers and coaches who vote for the Silver Sluggers. 

Another Tiger who could make a strong case for a Silver Slugger was Jhonny Peralta, who led all AL shortstops with a .824 OPS and 16.3 Batting Runs.  Instead, Asdrubal Cabrera captured the award with a .792 OPS and 15.2 Batting Runs.  This one was close enough where I won't call it a robbery though.       

 

Friday, September 24, 2010

Playing Time May Help Cabrera Win MVP

Former Detroit Tigers beat writer and current Fox analyst Jon Morosi is supporting Miguel Cabrera for the MVP award over Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton.  The part of the article which piqued my interest was the list of criteria which writers are given in considering the MVP:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

The last two criteria are just reminders and don’t have any bearing on a choice between Cabrera and Hamilton.  Criterion three is interesting in that each has experienced substance abuse problems.  Both have apparently conquered these issues however, and there is no evidence that either has an advantage in general character. 

So, that leaves us with items one and two.  Cabrera certainly has the upper hand over Hamilton in games played (146 versus 130).  In fact, Hamilton has only started 114 of those 130 games.  If he misses the rest of the season with injured ribs, he will have failed to start almost a third of his team’s games.  That’s a big chunk and it will probably be considered fairly heavily in MVP voting. 

The tricky part is criterion one – value of a player to his team.  Morosi gives the following definition of value:

I believe a player’s “value” is best defined as how difficult he would be for the team to replace.
I don’t disagree with this definition.  It’s essentially the same criteria used by many modern statistical analysts.  It fits nicely with the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) concept.  Where I disagree is how he determines value.   He reasons that the Rangers would still have a solid line-up without Hamilton, but that the Tigers would be lost without Cabrera:

Take away Hamilton, and the Rangers still have a very good lineup.
Take away Cabrera, and Ryan Raburn is the potential cleanup man.


He correctly states that Cabrera has a larger percentage of his team’s home runs and RBI than Hamilton.  There is no question that Cabrera is the centerpiece of the Tigers line-up and that Hamilton shares the load with the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Nelson Cruz and Michael Young.  That’s a classic interpretation of what “valuable” means in MVP.  It has some merit, but I’m most interested in the number of runs Cabrera and Hamilton contribute to their teams. 


One way to estimate run contribution is with the Batting Runs statistic which I discussed earlier this week.  I’ll use the following weights for events:

NIBB 0.33
IBB 0.18
HBP 0.33
1B 0.47
2B 0.77
3B 1.04
HR 1.40
Out –0.27

Hamilton leads Cabrera 56.2 to 54.8 in Batting Runs.  If we attempt to adjust for home parks (Hamilton plays his home games in a more friendly hitters park than Cabrera), they are essential even: Hamilton 54.4 and Cabrera 54.3.

Now, let’s add equivalent baserunning runs from from Baseball Prospectus.  Hamilton has contributed an estimated 3.3 runs with his base running while Cabrera has cost the Tigers an estimated 1.3.  The tally is now Hamilton 57.7 and Cabrera 53.0.  That is how many offensive runs the two batters have contributed above what you would have been expected from an average batter.  So, according to these statistics, Hamilton has had slightly more value while he has been in the line-up than Cabrera has had. 

FanGraphs estimates that Hamilton has cost his team 2.4 runs versus Cabrera by not being in the line-up (18.6 replacement value 21.0)  So, the gap closes to 2.3 runs.  It’s really very close offensively and you could make an argument for either player on that basis.

Where Hamilton has a bigger advantage is in run prevention.  FanGraphs estimates that Hamilton has a 6 run advantage simply by playing outfield instead of first base.  That sounds fair enough to me.  What about quality of defense? If we take the average of Total Zone, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, Hamilton is an estimated +3 runs defensively and Cabrera is –5.   That all adds up to a 14 run difference on defense which is a lot.  Even if you don’t trust the defensive statistics at all and want to assume that all players are average defensively, it’s still a six run edge for Hamilton. 

Is there any way for Cabrera to close the gap?  What about situational hitting?  Win Probability Added (WPA) is a statistic which takes into account a player’s performance in various scenarios.  For example a home run to break a tie in the ninth inning would be worth more than a home run in a blow out.  Cabrera has a 6.5 WPA versus 5.9 for Hamilton.  So, Cabrera appears to have done a little better in clutch situations and that may be enough to swing the offense slightly in his favor.  I don’t know if it’s enough to make up for the fielding gap though. 

We’ll get back to the one area where Cabrera has the clear lead – playing time.  We kind of incorporated that into our calculations already but it’s still hard to justify giving an MVP to a player with 114 starts.  I think Hamilton has been the better player overall and I’m leaning that way at the moment, but if he doesn’t play another game and Cabrera finishes strong, I think you can make a decent case for  Cabrera.

Now, I don’t want to give the impression that Hamilton and Cabrera are the only candidates.  Jose Bautista, Robinson Cano, Adrian Beltre and Evan Longoria are in the mix as well.  Based on what I’ve read though, it seems that voters are giving Cabrera and Hamilton the most consideration. 

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Blog Poll - AL Awards (week 15)

Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the America League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.


MVP
1. Ian Kinsler
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Milton Bradley

Who thought at the beginning of the season that three Rangers would top the voting?

Cy Young

1. Cliff Lee
2. Justin Duchsherer
2. Roy Halladay

And who thought Lee and Duchscherer would be the CY Young leaders?

Rookie of the Year

1. Evan Longoria
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Nick Blackburn

I voted for Armando Galarraga (third place vote) this week but I may have been the only one.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Blog poll - NL awards (week 14)

Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the National League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.

MVP

1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Albert Pujols

Cy Young

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Ben Sheets

Rookie of the Year

1. Geovanny Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Joey Votto

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Blog Poll - AL Awards (week 13)

Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the America League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie. Armando Galarraga finished fifth in the Rookie vote.

MVP

1. Milton Bradley
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Carlos Quentin

Cy Young

1. Cliff Lee
2. Roy Halladay
3. Justin Duchsherer

Rookie of the Year

1. Evan Longoria
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Greg Smith

Friday, June 27, 2008

Blog poll - NL Awards (week 12)

Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the National League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.

MVP

1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Chipper Jones

Cy Young

1. Edinson Volquez
2. Tim Lincecun
3. Ben Sheets

Rookie of the Year

1. Geovanny Soto
2. Joey Votto
3. Kosuke Fukudome

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Blog Poll - AL Awards (week 11)

Jason Collette has the weekly blog poll results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the America League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.

MVP

1. Josh Hamilton
2. Milton Bradley
3. JD Drew

Cy Young

1. Cliff Lee
2. Shaun Marcum
3. Felix Hernandez

Rookie of the Year

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Evan Longoria
3. David Murphy

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Blog poll - NL awards (week 8)

Jason Collette (who has taken over the weekly blog poll for a very busy David Bloom) has this weeks results up at RotoJunkie. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the National League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at RotoJunkie.

MVP

1. Lance Berkman
2. Chipper Jones
3. Chase Utley

Cy Young

1. Edinson Volquez
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Brandon Webb

Rookie of the Year

1. Geovany Soto
2. Joey Votto
3. Jair Jurrjens

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Blog Poll - NL Awards (week 6)

David Bloom has the results of his weekly blog poll up at Baseball Happenings. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the National League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at Baseball Happenings.

One thing that struck me as I filled out my ballot yesterday was how many National Leaguers and how few American Leaguers are having big offensive seasons. The top 10 OPS and 24 of the top 30 OPS in the majors belong to National Leaguers. So much for the American League being the hitter's league.
MVP

1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Chipper Jones

Cy Young

1. Brandon Webb
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Edinson Volquez

Rookie of the Year

1. Geovany Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Kosuke Fukudome

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Blog Poll - AL Awards (week 5)

David Bloom has the results of his weekly blog poll up at Baseball Happenings. Each week a group of bloggers (including myself) votes on the the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards based on season results up through that week. This week we did the American League and the leaders are listed below. The complete results can be found at baseball Happenings.
MVP

1. Manny Ramirez
2. Casey Kotchman
3. Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin (Tie)

Cy Young

1. Cliff Lee
2. Zack Greinke
3. Ervin Santana, Chien-Ming Wang (Tie)

Rookie of the Year

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Greg Smith
3. Evan Longoria

Monday, April 21, 2008

MLB Awards Poll - AL week3

David Bloom over at Baseball Happenings is conducting a weekly poll where bloggers vote for the 2008 MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. This week we voted for the American League and the results have been posted. My choices are listed below.

MVP

  1. Manny Ramirez
  2. Carlos Guillen
  3. AJ Pierzynski
The mysterious Manny Ramirez seems quite motivated right now batting .338 with a .703 slugging average.

It's not Guillen's fault that the Tigers are off to an awful start. He is shining through the motown rubble with the second highest OBP (.471) and second highest slugging percentage (.623) in the league (as of Sunday when I voted).

Cy Young
  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Zach Greinke
  3. Cliff Lee

Felix Hernandez seems primed for a breakout season at the age of 22. He has 24 strikeouts and a 1.47 ERA in four starts.


One of the best stories of the 2008 season so far is Zach Greinke who is living up to his potential after treatment for depression and anxiety.

Rookie


  1. Nick Blackburn
  2. Daric Barton
  3. David Murphy

After a great Arizona Fall League performance, Nick Blackburn has a 2.49 ERA and has walked just three in four starts.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

MLB awards poll - NL week 2

David Bloom over at Baseball Happenings is conducting a weekly poll where bloggers vote for the 2008 MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. This week we voted for the National League and the results have been posted. My choices are listed below.

MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Hanley Ramirez
  3. Justin Upton

Many fantasy leaguers avoided Pujols like the plague in pre-season drafts but maybe every player should play with a shredded elbow ligament.


Cy Young

  1. Jake Peavy
  2. Ben Sheets
  3. Brandon Webb

Peavy starts on top and may finish there.


Rookie

  1. Geovanny Soto
  2. kusoke Fukudome
  3. Johnny Cueto

A catcher who can catch and hit for power, Soto already looks to be one of the most valuable receivers in the league.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

MLB Awards Voting

David Bloom over at Baseball Happenings is conducting a weekly poll where bloggers vote for the 2008 MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. This week we voted for the American League and the results have been posted. My choices are listed below.

MVP

1. AJ Pierzinski - a catcher with 24 runs created per game.

2.Jermaine Dye - off to a great start in an attempted comback season.

3. Brian Roberts - big player in Orioles fast start.

Cy Young

1.Felix Hernandez - still a very young pitcher looking for a breakout season - 15 shutout innings over 2 starts.

2. Rich Harden - hoping to finally stay healthy this year.

3.Chien-Ming Wang - underrated pitcher (for a Yankee) continues to roll.

Rookie

1. David Murphy - surprising young outfielder starts where he left off last September.

2.Nick Blakburn - solid first start

3.Clete Thomas Played well in place of Curtis Granderson/ Gary Sheffield

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