Lynn Henning reported in an interview on WTKA today that Magglio Ordonez could be released by the Tigers before his vesting option for 2010-2011 kicks in. Thanks to Motor City Sonics for posting the link on MotownSports (He was actually one of the interviewers). Ordonez has a unique contract where an $18 million dollar option for 2010 automatically vests if he reaches 135 games or 540 plate appearances this season. An additional $15 million option would kick in for 2011 if he reaches 135 games or 540 plate appearances in 2010 or 270 games or 1080 plate appearances in 2009-2010.
If the Tigers release him before he reaches the necessary playing time, they would save $30 million dollars ($33 million in options minus a $3 million buy out for 2010). There is a catch however. According to the basic agreement, a team can not release a player for financial reasons, only for performance based reasons. Billfer wrote more about that issue on DTW a while back.
It will not be easy to release Ordonez for performance reasons but Henning says the Tigers will try to build a case empirically. If they released him today, the union would surely point to his .272 batting average and .343 On Base Percentage. Those are not Magglio-like numbers but they are respectable. The Tigers case would have to be built around his total lack of power - .343 slugging average - and his sub-par defense.
According to the Fan Graphs stats, Magglio is worth 2.3 runs less the the average American League batter ranking him 34th among 43 outfielders with 150 or more plate appearances. Defensively, he ranks 0.2 runs below the average right fielder. Overall, he is just 1.7 runs or 0.2 wins above a replacement level player. The best case the Tigers could give for releasing him might be be the fact that he ranks behind nine other Tigers in total player value.
I'm not sure any of the above is strong enough evidence to win a case against the union. There is also the issue of potentialy alienating players on the Tigers or potential free agents if they release him before his contract is up. I still believe it will be tough for them to free themselves of his contract but it is very interesting that they are apparently seriously thinking about attempting to do so.
Showing posts with label contracts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label contracts. Show all posts
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Friday, March 30, 2007
Guillen Signed through 2011
According to Danny Knobler, the Tigers have signed Carlos Guillen to a 4 year $48 millon dollar deal which will keep him a Tiger through 2011. The deal is somewhat of a risk given his history of injuries but his bat would have been really difficult to replace after the season. He has arguably been the MVP of the team over the last three years in aggregate and, in 2006, he actually had a season which was worthy of league MVP consideration. Since he probably could have gotten more money on the open market, we can consider this to be a bit of a home town discount. This deal is great news and helps to alleviate the disappointment of the news about Kenny Rogers.
Friday, March 02, 2007
How Much is Carlos Guillen Worth?
Two of Dave Dombrowski's best moves as Tigers general manager have involved Carlos Guillen. First, he acquired Guillen from the Mariners for Ramon Santiago and minor leaguer Juan Gonzalez prior to the 2004 season. Santiago was released by the Mariners after fewer than 50 at bats over two years and was then signed by the Tigers before last season. Gonzalez has never appeared in the majors, is no longer in the Mariners system and appears destined to be a minor league journeyman.
The second big move was signing Guillen to a three year $14 million extension during the 2004 season. It seemed like a good move at the time and it proved to be a fantastic move as Guillen has been the most valuable Tiger over the course of his three years with the team. In light of other contracts, such as 4 years/$40 million for Edgar Renteria and 4 years/$32 million for Orlando Cabrera, the deal was a steal for the Tigers.
Now, Guillen's contract is running out and he'll be a free agent after the season unless the Tigers lock him up before then. He wants to remain a Tiger and Dombrowski certainly wants to keep him but it won't be so easy this time. Not much has been said by either side and no contract has been offered but there was an important development this week which definitely should impact the situation. The Rangers have signed Michael Young to a 5 year $80 million contract extension which will take him through 2013.
What does the Young signing mean to Guillen and the Tigers? Well, they are pretty comparable players. Both are shortstops. Young is 30. Guillen is 31. They are two of the best hitters in the game at their position. Guillen has batted .320/.385/.508 in 376 games over three years. Young has batted .319/.365/.485 although in a better hittinmg environment. Guillen's 7.11 runs created per game leads all Major League shortstops over that period by a good margin. Derek Jeter is second at 6.77 and Young is 3rd at 6.40.
So, it definitely appears as if Guillen is worth as much per year as Young and he'll likely get it from the Tigers or somebody else. The bigger question is probably going to be how many years. Guillen is only a year older than Young and the Ranger shortstop will be 36 at the end of his contract. Thus, a similar five year extension for Guillen seems reasonable on the surface. It's not that simple though.
The big difference between the two shortstops is durability. While Young has averaged 159 games per year over his career, Guillen has averaged only 124 games per year over the past five years. Even last year, when Guillen played 150+ games for the first time, his health was in question. He knee swelled up on a couple of occasions and I believe it affected his fielding. He never seemed comfortable setting himself to make throws and I think that may be one of reasons he led all shortstops with 28 errors last year.
Because of the health concerns, the Tigers can not be sure whether he will last another four plus years as a shortstop. He already may have begun a decline last year finishing 21st in the league out of 30 qualifying shortstops in Average Fielding Rank (Young finished 11th). A switch to another position would make Guillen a little less valuable than he is as a shortstop simply because there are so few shortstops who are top hitters. Not only that but, given his injury history, it's even questionable how long he'll hold up as a hitter.
At the same time, they really need his bat in the line-up. He is really their only impact left-handed bat (actually a switch hitter) and he would be really difficult to replace. In fact, if they lose him, it would probably take two players to cover the loss. One would be a new shortstop and since most shorstops don't hit anywhere near as well as Guillen, they would likely need to upgrade offensively at another position.
How many years will Dombrowski go? Only he knows that but when you consider that he already has Sheffield locked up through the age of 40 and Ordonez through the age of 37 (assuming his two option years kick in), you would have to think he'll be cautious about signing the injury prone Guillen through age 35 or 36. My feeling is that he'd probably grab him without hesitation if he could get him for three years. Four years would be a big risk but given Guillen's importance to the team, I think he'd consider that. It would be difficult seeing him go five or more years.
Dombrowski stole Guillen once. He stole him twice. He won't steal him a third time though. I have a feeling this is going to be a drawn out negotiation which will not be resolved before the season starts.
The second big move was signing Guillen to a three year $14 million extension during the 2004 season. It seemed like a good move at the time and it proved to be a fantastic move as Guillen has been the most valuable Tiger over the course of his three years with the team. In light of other contracts, such as 4 years/$40 million for Edgar Renteria and 4 years/$32 million for Orlando Cabrera, the deal was a steal for the Tigers.
Now, Guillen's contract is running out and he'll be a free agent after the season unless the Tigers lock him up before then. He wants to remain a Tiger and Dombrowski certainly wants to keep him but it won't be so easy this time. Not much has been said by either side and no contract has been offered but there was an important development this week which definitely should impact the situation. The Rangers have signed Michael Young to a 5 year $80 million contract extension which will take him through 2013.
What does the Young signing mean to Guillen and the Tigers? Well, they are pretty comparable players. Both are shortstops. Young is 30. Guillen is 31. They are two of the best hitters in the game at their position. Guillen has batted .320/.385/.508 in 376 games over three years. Young has batted .319/.365/.485 although in a better hittinmg environment. Guillen's 7.11 runs created per game leads all Major League shortstops over that period by a good margin. Derek Jeter is second at 6.77 and Young is 3rd at 6.40.
So, it definitely appears as if Guillen is worth as much per year as Young and he'll likely get it from the Tigers or somebody else. The bigger question is probably going to be how many years. Guillen is only a year older than Young and the Ranger shortstop will be 36 at the end of his contract. Thus, a similar five year extension for Guillen seems reasonable on the surface. It's not that simple though.
The big difference between the two shortstops is durability. While Young has averaged 159 games per year over his career, Guillen has averaged only 124 games per year over the past five years. Even last year, when Guillen played 150+ games for the first time, his health was in question. He knee swelled up on a couple of occasions and I believe it affected his fielding. He never seemed comfortable setting himself to make throws and I think that may be one of reasons he led all shortstops with 28 errors last year.
Because of the health concerns, the Tigers can not be sure whether he will last another four plus years as a shortstop. He already may have begun a decline last year finishing 21st in the league out of 30 qualifying shortstops in Average Fielding Rank (Young finished 11th). A switch to another position would make Guillen a little less valuable than he is as a shortstop simply because there are so few shortstops who are top hitters. Not only that but, given his injury history, it's even questionable how long he'll hold up as a hitter.
At the same time, they really need his bat in the line-up. He is really their only impact left-handed bat (actually a switch hitter) and he would be really difficult to replace. In fact, if they lose him, it would probably take two players to cover the loss. One would be a new shortstop and since most shorstops don't hit anywhere near as well as Guillen, they would likely need to upgrade offensively at another position.
How many years will Dombrowski go? Only he knows that but when you consider that he already has Sheffield locked up through the age of 40 and Ordonez through the age of 37 (assuming his two option years kick in), you would have to think he'll be cautious about signing the injury prone Guillen through age 35 or 36. My feeling is that he'd probably grab him without hesitation if he could get him for three years. Four years would be a big risk but given Guillen's importance to the team, I think he'd consider that. It would be difficult seeing him go five or more years.
Dombrowski stole Guillen once. He stole him twice. He won't steal him a third time though. I have a feeling this is going to be a drawn out negotiation which will not be resolved before the season starts.
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