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CHAPTER EXCERPTS
@ Sports Illustrated
Relievers and the Three Run Lead
 
@ Hardball Times
Pitching Around Batters


CHAPTER PREVIEWS
  Foreword By Pete Palmer
  Preface
1. Tools
2. Streaks
3. Batter/Pitcher Matchups
4. Clutch
5. Batting Order
6. Platooning
7. Starting Pitchers
8. Relief Pitchers
9. Sacrifice Bunt
10. Intentional Walks
11. Base Stealing
12. Game Theory
  Appendix
  List Of Tables


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© 2006 TMA Press
  Book Cover image

CHAPTER 1 — TOOLSHED

If you've ever read Tom Clancy or Stephen King, you know that they sometimes go into very specific technical and psychological details. You could easily skip those paragraphs, and not miss a beat with the whole book. But, by reading those details, you gain an extra level of appreciation.

There are several major tools that we will be using throughout this book. In this chapter, we will introduce and describe them as completely as possible, as well as explain how they all relate to each other. Since these tools are used in some shape or form throughout the book, we find it more convenient for us (and perhaps more palatable for you) to dump/explore them here.

As with the King and Clancy novels, feel free to skip this chapter in its entirety if the technical presentation does not appeal to you.

Base/Out States

Everything about baseball (for that matter, everything about anything) is about context. All actions, events, data, and information are meaningless without context. And we don't mean meaningless in some theoretical sense, but in an actual, practical sense. Consider these words that you are reading right now. The primary context is the English language. You can expand that context to include the subject matter, baseball. Without understanding English and baseball, the words on this page and throughout the book would be gibberish to the reader.

So how do you describe baseball? For starters, a baseball game consists of nine (or more) innings, each of which is more or less equivalent in terms of what can happen. So we can think of the inning as the fundamental building block of the game. What contexts do we find within an inning? The most important is that you have three outs per inning. The second-most important is that you have three bases at which players can rest between batters on the way to scoring by touching a fourth base (home plate), and that each base will either be occupied or open. So combining these two contexts, you can have one out and men on first and second, two outs and a man on third, or any other combination of number of outs and occupied bases. The total number of potential combinations that you can have is exactly 24.

We refer to these 24 combinations as base/out states. These give us the context with which we can understand the events that unfold during an inning.

The inning always starts with the same initial base/out state: bases empty and no outs. The inning always ends when a team accumulates three outs. We can think of this as a 25th base/out state, though it differs from the other 24 because nothing can happen once this three-out state is reached.

From the start of the inning to the end of the inning, you will transition from base/out state to base/out state as the events unfold—hits, outs, baserunning, and so on. Along the way, you can pile up runs until you reach that final state (end of inning).


Win Expectancy, by Game State

Inning: 6, Top
1B2B3BOut-4-3-2-1Tie1234
00.0890.1460.2300.3480.5000.6510.7690.8540.911
10.0970.1580.2490.3750.5340.6900.8020.8790.929
20.1030.1670.2630.3940.5600.7170.8250.8960.941
1B00.0780.1280.2040.3100.4480.5940.7170.8120.881
1B10.0890.1450.2300.3470.4980.6490.7660.8520.910
1B20.0990.1610.2530.3800.5420.6970.8080.8840.932
2B00.0690.1140.1820.2800.4100.5570.6890.7930.868
2B10.0830.1360.2160.3270.4730.6250.7490.8400.902
2B20.0950.1550.2440.3680.5260.6820.7970.8760.928
3B00.0580.0980.1580.2470.3690.5170.6620.7740.856
3B10.0710.1180.1890.2910.4270.5820.7190.8200.889
3B20.0930.1520.2400.3620.5190.6750.7930.8730.926
1B2B00.0620.1020.1640.2530.3720.5060.6330.7420.827
1B2B10.0780.1270.2020.3080.4450.5900.7110.8060.877
1B2B20.0920.1510.2380.3580.5130.6650.7800.8620.917
1B3B00.0510.0850.1390.2180.3270.4630.6020.7200.813
1B3B10.0670.1110.1780.2740.4020.5480.6820.7860.864
1B3B20.0890.1460.2310.3490.5000.6520.7700.8550.912
2B3B00.0460.0780.1270.2010.3030.4310.5690.6950.795
2B3B10.0620.1020.1650.2550.3770.5170.6520.7640.848
2B3B20.0870.1430.2260.3410.4900.6390.7570.8450.906
1B2B3B00.0420.0710.1160.1830.2770.3950.5230.6440.748
1B2B3B10.0600.0990.1590.2450.3620.4950.6220.7310.818
1B2B3B20.0840.1370.2170.3280.4710.6170.7330.8230.888

Inning: 6, Bottom
1B2B3BOut-4-3-2-1Tie1234
00.1070.1740.2730.4080.5780.7350.8390.9060.947
10.0860.1450.2360.3660.5430.7120.8240.8970.942
20.0730.1260.2100.3360.5170.6950.8130.8910.938
1B00.1430.2220.3310.4690.6280.7670.8590.9190.954
1B10.1090.1770.2760.4100.5790.7360.8390.9060.947
1B20.0820.1400.2290.3580.5350.7070.8200.8950.941
2B00.1580.2450.3630.5110.6670.7940.8760.9290.961
2B10.1180.1910.2970.4370.6050.7530.8500.9130.951
2B20.0880.1490.2420.3760.5530.7180.8280.9000.943
3B00.1710.2660.3950.5560.7110.8230.8960.9410.968
3B10.1330.2150.3310.4870.6540.7850.8720.9260.959
3B20.0900.1520.2470.3840.5600.7240.8310.9020.945
1B2B00.2040.3010.4230.5600.7000.8150.8890.9370.965
1B2B10.1470.2280.3380.4720.6290.7680.8600.9190.954
1B2B20.1000.1660.2610.3920.5640.7260.8320.9030.945
1B3B00.2210.3270.4590.6090.7470.8460.9100.9490.972
1B3B10.1630.2520.3720.5200.6750.7990.8800.9310.962
1B3B20.1060.1740.2730.4060.5770.7340.8380.9060.947
2B3B00.2420.3560.4950.6420.7680.8600.9180.9540.975
2B3B10.1810.2770.4040.5520.6990.8140.8890.9370.965
2B3B20.1140.1850.2880.4210.5860.7400.8410.9080.948
1B2B3B00.2940.4100.5400.6730.7890.8720.9250.9580.977
1B2B3B10.2140.3130.4340.5710.7100.8210.8930.9390.966
1B2B3B20.1340.2090.3120.4430.6030.7510.8490.9120.950