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CHAPTER EXCERPTS
@ Sports Illustrated
Relievers and the Three Run Lead
 
@ Hardball Times
Pitching Around Batters


CHAPTER PREVIEWS
  Foreword By Pete Palmer
  Preface
1. Tools
2. Streaks
3. Batter/Pitcher Matchups
4. Clutch
5. Batting Order
6. Platooning
7. Starting Pitchers
8. Relief Pitchers
9. Sacrifice Bunt
10. Intentional Walks
11. Base Stealing
12. Game Theory
  Appendix
  List Of Tables


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CHAPTER 11 — RUNNING WILD

A runner finds himself on first base. What's the first thing the announcer says, especially if he's a particularly fast runner? “That guy can really disrupt the defense.”

As in everything, you change a situation, and everyone is affected somehow. With a runner on first base, the pitcher gives him an extra look and he pitches from the stretch. The first baseman is on the bag. If the runner moves, one of the middle infielders is moving toward second base. The infield is playing at double play depth with less than two outs. So, yes, the defense is disrupted. “How much is the defense disrupted?” is the real question. And, what about the batter? Why would he be immune to the antics of the defense and the runner? He's thinking of moving the runner over, taking advantage of the hole on the right side, taking a pitch to protect the runner. So, yes, the hitter is disrupted too. Again, the real question is, “How much is the hitter disrupted?” Let's find out.

Going through the 1999–2002 games, we'll concentrate on all batters with at least 800 plate appearances (excluding intentional walks and bunts). From those batters, we'll select all plate appearances where he has a runner on first base, and the other bases are empty. This gives us over 100,000 plate appearances. The overall wOBA of these batters (based on all of their PA), weighted by how often they found themselves with a runner on first base, is 0.358. This is essentially the talent level of our sample of hitters. In the particular situation of man on first base, and the runner staying put, the wOBA of these batters is 0.366. Ah-ha, our first evidence that the defense has been disrupted. We expected our batters to hit 0.358, since this is the overall average for 1999–2002 for these particular hitters. But, they actually hit 0.366. Let's break this one down even further. With two outs, the defense isn't as concerned with the runner on first base. With two outs, our batters hit 0.355, or 3 points less than their overall average. With zero or one out, they hit .372, or 14 points above their overall average!

The batting approach with two outs is much different than with zero or one out. Comparing these situations with a runner on first, batters walk and strikeout more with two outs, and hit HR at the same rate. The biggest difference is on balls hit in the field of play: .319 with zero and one out, compared to .299 with two outs. We explain this as a result of the defense playing at double play depth, or possibly playing in expecting the bunt, with less than two outs, but at normal depth with two outs. When we talk about a disrupted defense, we don't necessarily mean that they are distracted.