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Sovereign bond market spillovers from crisis-time developments in Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Daragh Clancy

    (ESM)

  • Carmine Gabriele

    (ESM)

  • Diana Zigraiova

    (ESM)

Abstract
The systemic importance of a country is a crucial component in the European Stability Mechanism's assessment of financial assistance requests. However, disentangling the effect of developments in one country on other countries in real time is fraught with difficulties. Using empirical methods that provide ex-ante measures of risk exposure, we find that changes in the tail risks of Greek sovereign bond returns resulted in immediate and significant cross-market spillovers to other euro area sovereign bond returns. Our approach provides real-time insights on evolving cross-market interdependencies, such as Germany gradually becoming a safe haven from Greece. We confirm that developments in Greece drive our tail-risk results by linking them to a newly developed intra-day event database. This approach also allows us to provide a more intuitive quantification of the spillovers emanating from Greece. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that developments in Greece significantly affected other euro area sovereign bond markets over and beyond global, euro area and country-specific factors. Our results provide evidence for the systemic importance of Greece throughout the European sovereign debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Daragh Clancy & Carmine Gabriele & Diana Zigraiova, 2020. "Sovereign bond market spillovers from crisis-time developments in Greece," Working Papers 45, European Stability Mechanism.
  • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crisis; events; narrative; sovereign bonds; spillovers; tail risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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