[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sec/cnstan/0258.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment - Consequences of EMU Enlargement

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Brzozowski
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to analyze theoretically and empirically the likely impact of the reduction in exchange rate uncertainty, due to the EMU accession, on the intensity of FDI inflow into candidate countries. Theoretical models give an ambiguous picture of how exchange rate uncertainty and volatility affect direction and magnitude of FDI inflows. The main contribution of this paper is in finding that exchange rate uncertainty and volatility may negatively influence the decision to locate investment in transition and accession countries. Nominal exchange rate uncertainty seems to particularly hamper FDI inflows in accession countries. The key finding of this paper is that euro adoption is likely to exert a positive influence on FDI inflows in accession countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Brzozowski, 2003. "Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment - Consequences of EMU Enlargement," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0258, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/1521534_sa258.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pietro Garibaldi & Nada Mora & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "What Moves Capital to Transition Economies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 1-6.
    2. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 55-67, March.
    3. Sung, Hongmo & Lapan, Harvey E, 2000. "Strategic Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange-Rate Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(2), pages 411-423, May.
    4. Mr. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Working Papers 1992/020, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Noorbakhsh, Farhad & Paloni, Alberto & Youssef, Ali, 2001. "Human Capital and FDI Inflows to Developing Countries: New Empirical Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1593-1610, September.
    6. Goldberg, Linda S & Kolstad, Charles D, 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-873, November.
    7. Gastanaga, Victor M. & Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Pashamova, Bistra, 1998. "Host Country Reforms and FDI Inflows: How Much Difference do they Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1299-1314, July.
    8. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
    9. Stijn Claessens & Daniel Oks & Rossana Polastri, 2000. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 299-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    11. Benassy-Quere, AgnEs & Fontagne, Lionel & LahrEche-Revil, Amina, 2001. "Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 178-198, June.
    12. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    13. Laura Resmini, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 665-689, November.
    14. Estrin, Saul & Bevan, Alan, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 890-922, December.
    16. repec:bla:kyklos:v:54:y:2001:i:1:p:89-113 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Alan A. Bevan & Saul Estrin, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 342, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    18. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Clare & Ira N. Gang, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Political Risks, Again," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 46-58, May.
    2. Masahiro Tokunaga & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2017. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies: A Meta-analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2771-2831, December.
    3. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Sookia, 2019. "Explaining Heterogeneity in the Effect of the Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment: A Meta‐Analysis Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 275-291, September.
    4. Khansa Zaman & Muhammad Saeed Rana & Umer Iftikhar, 2019. "A Multilevel Analysis of Job Demands and Intention to Resign Through Perceived Service Recovery Performance," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 11(2), pages 67-82, June.
    5. Isabel Ruiz, 2005. "Exchange Rate as a Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment: Does it Really Matter? Theoretical Aspects, Literature Review and Applied Proposal," International Trade 0511016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Axarloglou, Kostas & Kouvelis, Panos, 2007. "Hysteresis in adjusting the ownership structure of foreign subsidiaries," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 494-506, August.
    7. Onay, Ceylan, 2006. "A Co-integration Analysis Approach to European Union Integration: The Case of Acceding and Candidate Countries," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 10, September.
    8. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2015. "The adjustment of plant-level investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia: do the size and the ownership structure matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2487-2505.
    9. Maja Nikšić Radić, 2018. "Terrorism as a Determinant of Attracting FDI in Tourism: Panel Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    11. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Ul Haq Sookia, 2023. "The impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on Mauritius foreign direct investment: A sector‐wise analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 208-224, January.
    12. Maria Borga & Perla Ibarlucea Flores & Monika Sztajerowska, 2020. "Drivers of divestment decisions of multinational enterprises - A cross-country firm-level perspective," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2019/03, OECD Publishing.
    13. Marek Dabrowski, 2006. "A Strategy for EMU Enlargement," Springer Books, in: Marek Dabrowski & Jacek Rostowski (ed.), The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone, chapter 0, pages 199-225, Springer.
    14. Zerrin KILI ARSLAN, 2018. "The Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey: Toda and Yamamoto Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 61-67.
    15. Kimiagari, Salman & Mahbobi, Mohammad & Toolsee, Tushika, 2023. "Attracting and retaining FDI: Africa gas and oil sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Piotr Mielus, 2012. "Market Measures of Convergence in Central & Eastern Europe Emerging Markets in the Period of Turbulences on the Financial Market," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 31.
    17. Arbeláez, Harvey & Ruiz, Isabel, 2013. "Macroeconomic antecedents to U.S. investment in Latin America," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 439-447.
    18. Balaban, Suzana & Živkov, Dejan & Milenković, Ivan, 2019. "Impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI: Evidence from transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    19. Maela Giofré & Oleksandra Sokolenko, 2023. "Cross-border investment and the decline of exchange rate volatility: implications for Euro area bilateral investments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 595-627, August.
    20. Muhammad Jalib Sikandar & Fazale Wahid, 2019. "Debt and Economic Growth of Pakistan; Role of Uncertain Economic and Political Conditions," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 11(2), pages 83-106, June.
    21. Pradeep Kumar DAS, 2018. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and FDI in developing countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 15-30, Spring.
    22. Nicholas Apergis & Dimitrios Asteriou & Kalliroi Papathoma, 2013. "The Explanatory Variables of Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Panel Evidence," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 4(4), pages 207-215, July.
    23. Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., 2008. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), pages 1-21.
    24. Tokunaga, Masahiro & Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2014. "Transition and FDI: A Meta-Analysis of the FDI Determinants in Transition Economies," RRC Working Paper Series 47, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    25. Gérard Duchêne & Mathilde Maurel & Boris Najman, 2004. "Élargissement de lUnion européenne : présentation générale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 1-16.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    2. Lee, Bong-Soo & Min, Byung S., 2011. "Exchange rates and FDI strategies of multinational enterprises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 586-603, November.
    3. Kinoshita, Yuko & Campos, Nauro F., 2004. "Estimating the determinants of foreign direct investment inflows : how important are sampling and omitted variable biases?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    6. Benjamin N. Dennis & Christopher A. Laincz & Lei Zhu, 2008. "Which Exchange Rates Matter for FDI? Evidence for Japan," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(1), pages 50-68, July.
    7. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2020. "The effects of transitory and permanent inflation uncertainty on investment in Ghana," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-217, February.
    8. Zainab Jehan & Azooba Hamid, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and capital inflows: role of financial development," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 189-203, December.
    9. Arbeláez, Harvey & Ruiz, Isabel, 2013. "Macroeconomic antecedents to U.S. investment in Latin America," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 439-447.
    10. B. Merlevede & K. Schoors, 2005. "How to Catch Foreign Fish? FDI and Privatisation in EU Accession Countries," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/309, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Campos, Nauro F. & Kinoshita, Yuko, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and Structural Reforms: Evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 3332, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 1999. "Exchange Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting FDI," Working Papers 1999-16, CEPII research center.
    13. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and domestic investment in Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1362157-136, January.
    14. Schwieren, C.A.A. & Vendrik, M.C.M. & de Gijsel, P.P., 2004. "The power of competition: reducing or reinforcing discrimination?," Research Memorandum 041, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    15. Cushman, David O. & De Vita, Glauco, 2017. "Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 143-163.
    16. Yuko Kinoshita & Nauro F. Campos, 2003. "Why Does Fdi Go Where it Goes? New Evidence From the Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 2003/228, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Firoozi, Fathali, 1997. "Multinationals FDI and uncertainty: an exposition," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-273, October.
    18. Jaap Bos & Mindel van de Laar, 2004. "Explaining Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe: an Extended Gravity Approach," DNB Working Papers 008, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Odili Okwuchukwu, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Stock Market Performance and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 172-184, April.
    20. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Sookia, 2021. "Impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment inflow for Mauritius: A dynamic time series approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(4), pages 581-591, December.
    21. Russ, Katheryn, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9xr4f238, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Budzynska (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caseepl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.