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Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Nadim Hanif

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Javed Iqbal

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract
This study estimates degree of intrinsic inflation persistence in Pakistan using aggregate price index, group level price indices, and individual commodity prices. We find no evidence of a unit root in (MoM) inflation at any level, except for house rent. Using monthly data from 1959 to 2011 we find that the estimate of (overall) inflation persistence is 0.16, which is low but significant. During 2001-2011 (overall) inflation persistence is insignificant. Food inflation does not exhibit any persistence during the last decade. However, the degree of persistence is very high (0.80) and significant for core inflation (NFNE), which weakens slightly (to 0.69) when we account for commodities price shock of 2008. At micro level, the estimated degree of inflation persistence for various groups is found to be relatively higher, in almost 60 percent of the cases, compared to corresponding degree of persistence at aggregate level. This may be because in micro analysis we consider only those commodities for which the estimated degree of inflation persistence is significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Working Paper Series 52, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:52
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    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/repec/sbp/wpaper/wp52.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2014. "Monetary Policy Experience of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tianfeng Li & June Wei, 2015. "Multiple Structural Breaks and Inflation Persistence: Evidence from China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2012. "A Note on Food Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 45009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2013.
    4. Aadil Nakhoda, 2014. "The Influence of Industry Financial Composition on the Exports from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 10, pages 21-49.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistence; inflation; food inflation; core inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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