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Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Buzzanca
  • Caterina Conigliani
  • Valeria Costantini
Abstract
The literature identifies three main drivers for forced migration, namely conflict, food nsecurity, and natural and man-made disasters, although finds no empirical consensus on the association between climate change and migrations. Aim of this study is to identify the different push and pull factors of forced migration in different regions of the world by means of gravity-type models. Particular attention is devoted to determining the effects of climatic factors and conflicts, while controlling for the economic, political and social relationship between the origin and the destination countries. We model both total forced migration, that includes refugees, asylum seekers, internal displacements, and returnees, and cross-border forced migrations. Finally, we consider a full panel data analysis and estimate both fixed effects and random effects model specifications. The former offers interesting insights when looking at the most significant country pair fixed effects, that after controlling for all the different drivers, represents the migration routes whose intrinsic characteristics are most relevant for explaining forced migrations. The latter, on the other hand, allows estimating also the effect of time-constant bilateral predictors such as the distance between countries or the fact that they share a common language or have a colonial relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Buzzanca & Caterina Conigliani & Valeria Costantini, 2022. "Conflicts and natural disasters as drivers of forced migrations in a gravity-type approach," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0268, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0268
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
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    4. Freeman, Rebecca & Lewis, John, 2021. "Gravity model estimates of the spatial determinants of trade, migration, and trade-and-migration policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    5. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 434-468, August.
    6. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forced migration; IDPs; Conflicts; Natural disasters; Climate change; Gravity models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law
    • K38 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Human Rights Law; Gender Law; Animal Rights Law
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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