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The Macroeconomic Effect of Trade Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Erceg

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Andrea Prestipino

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Andrea Raffo

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract
We study the short-run macroeconomic e¤ects of trade policies that are equivalent in a frictionless economy, namely a uniform increase in import tari¤s and export subsidies (IX), an increase in value-added taxes accompanied by a payroll tax reduction (VP), and a border adjustment of corporate pro t taxes (BAT). Using a dynamic New Keynesian open-economy framework, we rst argue that IX tends to boost output and ination even under exible exchange rates, a result in sharp contrast with the conventional view of neutrality of these policies. We then provide (quite restrictive) conditions for exact neutrality of IX policies, whereby the real exchange rate appreciates enough to fully o¤set their competitive enhancing effects. Finally, we show that the equivalence among IX, VP,and BAT policies depends critically on assumptions about tax pass through. Under full pass through of taxes, IX and BAT are equivalent but VP is not. With su¢ cient price rigidities, VP is contractionary rather than expansionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effect of Trade Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    3. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Mileva, Mariya, 2024. "Trade liberalization, wage inequality, and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Chen, Sihao & Devereux, Michael B. & Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2021. "Exchange rates, local currency pricing and international tax policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 460-472.
    5. Yuko Imura, 2023. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Production Networks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 77-116, December.
    6. Mandelman, Federico S. & Waddle, Andrea, 2020. "Intellectual property, tariffs, and international trade dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 86-103.
    7. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Stéphane Auray & Michael B. Devereux & Aurélien Eyquem, 2024. "The Demand for Trade Protection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 865-898, June.
    9. Yuko Imura, 2019. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains," Staff Working Papers 19-19, Bank of Canada.
    10. Broadbent, Ben & Di Pace, Federico & Drechsel, Thomas & Harrison, Richard & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2019. "The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 51, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    11. Christopher Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2023. "Trade Policies and Fiscal Devaluations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 104-140, October.
    12. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Bergin, Paul R, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Stabilization of Tariff Shocks: What is the Optimal Monetary Response?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14556, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Evgeny N. Smirnov & Sergey A. Lukyanov, 2021. "Instability of international trade and approaches to optimal regulation," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 12(5), pages 21-31, November.
    14. Barattieri, Alessandro & Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio, 2021. "Protectionism and the business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. V. V. Chari & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2023. "Optimal Cooperative Taxation in the Global Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(1), pages 95-130.
    16. Omar Barbiero & Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2019. "The Macroeconomics of Border Taxes," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 395-457.
    17. Robert Ambrisko, 2019. "Fiscal Devaluation in a Small Open Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 67-88, March.
    18. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Stéphane Auray & Michael B. Devereux & Aurélien Eyquem, 2019. "Endogenous Trade Protection and Exchange Rate Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 25517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2024. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1185-1211, September.
    21. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 4-23, March.
    22. Giampaolo Arachi & Debora Assisi, 2021. "Fiscal devaluation and relative prices: evidence from the Euro area," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 685-716, June.
    23. Karyne B. Charbonneau, 2019. "The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-20, Bank of Canada.
    24. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2021. "Tariffs and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers 2021-25, Banco de México.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence

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