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Fiscal Policy and Debt Management with Incomplete Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Sargent

    (New York University)

  • Mikhail Golosov

    (Princeton University)

  • David Evans

    (University of Oregon)

  • anmol bhandari

    (university of minnesota)

Abstract
A Ramsey planner chooses a distorting tax on labor and manages a portfolio of securities in an environment with incomplete markets. We develop a method that uses second order approximations of the policy functions to the planner’s Bellman equation to obtain expressions for the unconditional and conditional moments of debt and taxes in closed form such as the mean and variance of the invariant distribution as well as the speed of mean reversion. Using this, we establish that asymptotically the planner’s portfolio minimizes an appropriately defined measure of fiscal risk. Our analytic expressions that approximate moments of the invariant distribution can be readily applied to data recording the primary government deficit, aggregate consumption, and returns on traded securities. Applying our theory to U.S. data, we find that an optimal target debt level is negative but close to zero, that the invariant distribution of debt is very dispersed, and that mean reversion is slow.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Sargent & Mikhail Golosov & David Evans & anmol bhandari, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Debt Management with Incomplete Markets," 2016 Meeting Papers 1284, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1284
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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