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Monetary Transmission Mechanism In A Small Open Economy: A Bayesian Structural Var Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Rokon Bhuiyan

    (Queen's University)

Abstract
This paper develops an open-economy Bayesian structural VAR model for Canada in order to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks, using the overnight target rate as the policyinstrument. I allow the policy variable and the financial variables of the model to interact simultaneously with each other and with a number of other home and foreign variables. WhenI estimate this over-identified VAR model, I find that the policy shock transmits to real output through both the interest rate and exchange rate channels, and the shock does not induce a departure from uncovered interest rate parity. I also find that the impulse response of the monetary aggregate, M1, does not exactly follow the impulse response of the target rate.Finally, I find that Canadian variables significantly responds to the US federal funds rate shock, and external shocks are an important source of Canadian output fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rokon Bhuiyan, 2008. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In A Small Open Economy: A Bayesian Structural Var Approach," Working Paper 1183, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    2. Khaysy Srithilat & Thipphavanh Samatmanivong & Vaiyoth Lienpaserth & Phiengsanith Chanthavixay & Visanu Boundavong & Vonsy Douangty, 2022. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Lao PDR," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 67-74.
    3. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism analysis in a small, open economy: the case of Vietnam," OSF Preprints ybc8p, Center for Open Science.
    4. Tafirenyika Sunde & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2016. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 125-143.
    5. Finlay, Richard & Jääskelä, Jarkko P., 2014. "Credit supply shocks and the global financial crisis in three small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 270-276.
    6. Anwar, Sajid & Nguyen, Lan Phi, 2018. "Channels of monetary policy transmission in Vietnam," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 709-729.
    7. Sebastian Coralia Emilia POPA, 2017. "Quantification model of the consequences of monetary policy shocks," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(19), pages 122-128, November.
    8. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    9. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Onanuga, Abayomi & Onanuga, Olaronke, 2014. "The Impact of Interest Rate Channel of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices in Nigeria: An Unrestricted VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 83322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Bangladesh: A Bayesian Structural VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 301-316, June.
    12. Louis, Rosmy J & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2009. "Are Mortgage Rates Bubbling Up Trouble for Canadas Metropolitan Housing Sector?," MPRA Paper 17245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    14. Champagne, Julien & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2018. "Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 72-87.
    15. Christian Rohe & Matthias Hartermann, 2015. "The role of external shocks for monetary policy in Colombia and Brazil: A Bayesian SVAR analysis," CQE Working Papers 4215, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    16. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks And Industrial Output In Brics Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 3-24, July-Sept.
    17. Kaelo Mpho Ntwaepelo, 2021. "The Effects of Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Shocks in BRICS economies," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-20, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    18. Guido Turnip, 2017. "Identification of Small Open Economy SVARs via Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(302), pages 465-483, September.
    19. T. Philipp Dybowski & Max Hanisch & Bernd Kempa, 2018. "The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 471-494, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; structural VAR; block exogeneity; impulse response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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